Fine-grain spatial patterning and dynamics of land use and agrobiodiversity amid global changes in the Bolivian Andes

Our research addresses the gap in scientific research on the fine-grain spatial patterns and social–ecological interactions of land use and agrobiodiversity. The spatial dimension of agrobiodiversity dynamics potentially strengthens the social–ecological resilience and food security of smallholders by buffering risk and vulnerability. Our research integrates the scientific theories, concepts, and methods of spatial externalities, social–ecological interactions, geospatial land and global change sciences, and political ecology. We designed a case study of the Arbieto-Tarata landscape in the Bolivian Andes that comprises a globally significant agrobiodiversity hot spot of Andean maize. The Arbieto-Tarata landscape, which contains nearly 8000 fields at 2500–2800 masl, is representative of mixed-use smallholder agri-food systems amid global changes. Our research predicts spatial spillover and edge effects of combined social and environmental factors leading to the clustering of same-crop fields. Findings reveal significant levels of the predicted clustering between 2006 and 2012. The degree of this clustering is found to differ among geographic and environmental sub-areas reflecting fine-grain variation of local causal linkages. Extra-local causal linkages include high levels of migration, water resource shortages, and urbanization. Results show the influences of informal and formal coordination in the spatial clustering of same-crop fields. This field-level coordination improves the efficiency of resource allocations and lowers costs of production. It enables the viability of high-agrobiodiversity Andean maize in smallholder land use and agri-food systems amid global changes. The article discusses the broader policy and scientific implications of these findings including scaling up and support of the social–ecological resilience of agrobiodiversity globally.     

Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity,habitat connectivity,and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta,Canada

Climate change generally requires species to migrate northward or to higher elevation to maintain constant climate conditions, but migration requirement and migration capacity of individual species can vary greatly. Individual populations of species occupy different positions in the landscape that determine their required range shift to maintain similar climate, and likewise the migration capacity depends on habitat connectivity. Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantifying species vulnerabilities to climate change for 419 rare vascular plants in Alberta, Canada, based on a multivariate velocity of climate change metric, local habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Climate change velocities indicated that future migration requirements ranged from 1 to 5 km/year in topographically complex landscapes, such as the Alberta Foothills and Rocky Mountains. In contrast, migration requirements to maintain constant climate in relatively flat Boreal Plains, Parkland, and Grassland ranged from 4 to 8 km/year. Habitat fragmentation was also highest in these flat regions, particularly the Parkland Natural Region. Of the 419 rare vascular plants assessed, 36 were globally threatened (G1–G3 ranking). Three globally threatened species were ranked as extremely vulnerable and five species as highly vulnerable to the interactions among climate change velocity, habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Incorporating dispersal characteristics and habitat fragmentation with local patterns in climate change velocity improves the assessment of climate change threats to species and may be applied to guide monitoring efforts or conservation actions.     

Climatic changes and their impact on socio-economic sectors in the Bhutan Himalayas: an implementation strategy

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.     

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.     

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan,Indonesia, under different policy scenarios

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.     

Benefits from and threats to European treeline ecosystem services: an exploratory study of stakeholders and governance

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is being increasingly applied in environmental governance and science. To safeguard key ES in changing and complex social–ecological systems such as treeline areas, we need to (1) map key ES in different types of treeline landscapes, (2) identify the stakeholders benefiting from and threatening ES, and (3) examine how ES could be governed more sustainably. We explore these questions in European treeline areas by using quantitative and qualitative social science techniques to analyse responses from a survey of local scientific experts in 20 altitudinal and polar treeline areas in 15 European countries. In contrast to the prevalent consideration of treeline areas as a single type of a social–ecological system, we show that European treeline areas can be divided into two types that significantly differ in the delivery of ES. Our analyses allowed us to categorize stakeholders according to their benefits from and threats to ES; “Green key players” formed the most numerous group, while smaller number of stakeholder groups was categorized as “Harmless crowd”, “Occasional stressors”, and “Risky users”. However, behaviour of stakeholders is very much site-specific. Of 595 pairs of stakeholders analysed, we found <5 EU-wide “Allies” and “Opponents”. Recommendations for improved governance include adjusting governance instruments to specific problems in divergent treeline systems and creating participatory structures where stakeholders better interact with scientists and can genuinely influence management decisions.     

Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.     

Conditions for the development of anaerobic digestion technologies using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste: perspectives for Poland

This article outlines problems related to the location of facilities designed to treat the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW). Anaerobic digestion (AD) facilities are investigated as a treatment option, while taking into account the aspects of renewable energy generation. This research has been spurred on by the relationship between waste management, energy generation issues and spatial planning procedures. The analysis is focused on urban and semi-urban areas of medium and large cities. One of the most difficult issues associated with siting of waste processing plants is its integration with local infrastructures, avoiding conflicts and negative environmental impacts at the same time. This research aims to analyse possible locations for AD plants fuelled by OFMSW in Poland. Based on the experience gained from other countries and lessons learnt from the analysis of existing facilities in Europe, conditions for the location of this type of waste treatment plants have been defined, with the focus on economic, environmental and social issues. Most likely, the results of the multicriteria decision analysis for siting of municipal solid waste AD plants (M-BIST tool) could be transferred to other countries, especially those with a comparable GDP level and a similar framework for a waste management system.     

Energy policy evaluation in practice: the case of production subsidies and DEN-B in the Netherlands

This paper describes how energy policy can be evaluated in practice. The goal is to make policy makers aware of how an evaluation can be based on scientific principles and to help economists appreciate how an evaluation can be performed if strong empirical evidence is lacking. We have built a basic evaluation framework and have applied this to a selection of Dutch energy policy instruments, namely production subsidies and their complementary non-financial instrument, DEN-B. Our evaluation criterion was effectiveness, defined as the extent to which policy instruments contribute to achieving policy goals. The evaluation was based on existing ex post evaluations complemented by interviews and other available data. We conclude that production subsidies and DEN-B were (partly) effective. Furthermore, the Dutch government increased effectiveness by reconsidering the design of production subsidies. We also formulate lessons for future policy evaluations and energy markets policies.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.