Improvements in modeling sagebrush concentrations of radioiodine released from the Hanford site

The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project estimated the radiation dose to individuals from historical emissions of radioactive materials from the Hanford Site in Washington State. Project validation studies using predicted activity concentrations of 131I on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) showed a systematic underestimation against historical data during cold weather months, indicating a need for sagebrush model improvement. A deposition model for semi-volatile organic materials presented by Komp and McLachlen (Environ. Sci. Tech. 31 (1997) 886-890) is adapted here for gaseous iodine onto sagebrush. The deposition model includes a temperature-dependent term based on an integrated van't Hoff equation. Calibration data for the model are obtained from a release of 131I in 1963. Modeling results for releases in 1946 show a good match between historical data and predicted results using the new model. The new model shows improvement over interception-fraction type models, but requires plant-type-specific calibration data.     

A mechanistic sub-model predicting the influence of potassium on radiocesium uptake in aquatic biota

It is often argued that the quality of science is related to the possibilities of making accurate predictions. It has also long been argued that due to the complex nature of ecosystems, it will never be possible to predict important target variables, especially with more comprehensive dynamic models. New results in radioecology have, however, demonstrated that those arguments are no longer valid. The key to the predictive success lies in the structuring of the model. The accident at Chernobyl has, in fact, provided science with an intriguing opportunity to study how the pulse of 137Cs is transported through ecosystem pathways, thus revealing the basic structure of these ecosystems, i.e. which are the key and the less-important pathways. It is paradoxical to conclude that the Chernobyl accident is, perhaps, the most important factor behind the revolution in predictive ecosystem modelling which lies behind the decrease in the uncertainty factor from 10 to 0.25-0.5. The sub-model for the potassium moderator presented in this paper is an example of a mechanistically based sub-model used within the framework of a more comprehensive lake model for 137Cs. The K-moderator presented is derived from the existing knowledge on ion transport in biological membranes and takes into account ion equilibria modelled by the Nernst equation and the uptake kinetics quantified by the Michaelis-Menten model. It provides the type of structure to this overall lake model that helps to explain the excellent predictive power of this model.     

Trace elements determination in lichens and in the airborne particular matter for the evaluation of the atmospheric pollution in a region of northern Italy

Lichens as biomonitors and neutron activation analysis as analytical technique have been employed to study the distribution of trace elements (TE) in a mountain region of north Italy (Biella) characterized by settlements of wool industry. Samples of airborne particulate matter collected onto filters, different species of lichens and samples of soils have been analyzed for the calculation of the enrichment factors (EFs) of more than 25 TE. By comparison of the corresponding EFs, the most suitable lichen species (Parmelia caperata) was selected as specific TE biomonitor of the area investigated. Samples of this lichen were collected and analyzed for the evaluation of the TE distribution in four different locations. The results obtained from the analysis of the lichens gave information about the predominant direction of pollutants transportation, while those related to the concentrations found in the air particulate allowed the evaluation of the degree of the local TE atmospheric pollution.     

Specific Conductance and pH as Indicators of Watershed Disturbance in Streams of the New Jersey Pinelands, USA

/ We used linear regression to independently and jointly relate specific conductance and pH measured at New Jersey Pinelands stream sites to the percentage of altered land in a watershed. Percentage altered land included developed and agricultural land uses and represented watershed disturbance for a given site. Median values calculated for a 2-year period (September 1992 through August 1994) characterized pH and specific conductance at the study sites. We found the relationships between the median values for both water-quality measures and percentage altered land for a site to be consistent across subregion and dominant altered-land use. Our results also demonstrated that the water-quality/altered-land relationships developed using median values were similar to relationships developed using data from any single-sample period within the entire study period. Individually, pH and specific conductance explained 48% and 56%, respectively, of the variability in watershed disturbance among study sites. The joint use of pH and specific conductance explained 79% of the watershed disturbance variability among sites. The joint use of these easily obtained water-quality measures can provide a quick assessment of instream water-quality impacts from upstream watershed disturbance at any Pinelands stream site. Additionally, a range in pH and specific conductance, and hence a range in ambient water quality, can be predicted for a given altered-land percentage or a change in existing altered-land conditions.     

Locational Probability for a Dammed, Urbanizing Stream: Salt River, Arizona, USA

/ Data from historical aerial photographs analyzed with a GIS show that river channel change on the Salt River in the Phoenix metropolitan area of central Arizona has been driven by large-scale regional flood events and local human activities. Mapping of functional surfaces such as low-flow channels, high-flow channels, islands, bars attached to channel banks, and engineered surfaces shows that during the period from 1935 to 1997, the relative areal coverage of these surfaces has changed. Flood events have caused general changes in sinuosity of the low-flow channel, but islands have remained remarkably consistent in location and size, while channel-side bars have waxed and waned. The most important determinant of local channel form and process is sand and gravel mining, which in some reaches occupies more than 70% of the active channel area. The general location of mining is closely related to the location of the moving urban fringe, which serves as a market for sand and gravel during construction. Quantitative spatial analysis of imagery supplemented by field mapping shows that for each location within the general channel area, it is possible to specify a probability of encountering a low-flow channel or other fluvial features. Maps showing the distribution of these probabilities of occurrence reveal the most probable location and configuration of the channel as it occurred in the past. Some reaches have the low-flow channel located persistently within a limited area as a result of bedrock or sinuosity controls, but other reaches dominated by flow separation or shallow gradient have almost no persistence in channel location from one flood to another.     

Integrated Resource Management: Moving from Rhetoric to Practice in Australian Agriculture

/ Implementing the concept of sustainability through integrated approaches to natural resource management poses enormous challenges for both the rural communities and government agencies concerned. This paper reviews the underlying rhetoric of sustainable agricultural systems and the integrated resource management paradigm and identifies some of the challenges being experienced in translating this rhetoric into practice. A relatively recently implemented community-based integrated catchment management (ICM) process in a rural community in northeast Australia is examined in terms of some of the lessons learned that may be relevant to other similar integrated resource management (IRM) processes. It reveals a pragmatic, opportunistic, and evolving implementation process based on adaptive learning rather than a more traditional "rational" planning approach. Some essential characteristics of a community-based IRM process are identified, including fostering communication; providing a structure that fosters cooperation and facilities coordination among community, industry, and government agencies; the integration of IRM principles into local government planning schemes; and an emergent strategic approach to IRM program implementation. We conclude by identifying some essential characteristics of an IRM process that can assist a community to adapt to, and manage change for, sustainable resource use.     

Testicular cancer and occupational exposures with a focus on xenoestrogens in polyvinyl chloride plastics

In a case-control study of 148 cases of testicular cancer and 314 healthy controls information was collected on lifetime working histories and specific exposures. The main finding was a six-fold increase in the risk for seminoma, one type of testicular cancer, among plastic workers exposed to polyvinyl chloride (PVC). No overrisks were observed for other plastics than PVC. There may be an aetiological link to xenoestrogens, i.e. chemicals in the environment with oestrogenic properties. Phthalates are used in PVC as plasticizer and have oestrogenic properties that could promote the growth of endocrine sensitive tumour cells. However, this "endocrine disruptors" hypothesis must be further evaluated in experimental models with regard to the causative mechanisms of the oestrogenic tumour promotion.     

The influence on partial order ranking from input parameter uncertainty. Definition of a robustness parameter

The method of partial order ranking has been used within the environmental area for a variety of purposes as an attractive way of handling complex information. However, the environmental data are often associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this investigation the general nature of the influence from data uncertainty on the partial order ranking is analyzed. A Monte Carlo type analysis is performed in which a series of randomly formed data are used to test the influence of data uncertainty. The partial order ranking is interpreted, where the results are transferred to a one-dimensional ranking scale taking into account that not all elements are ranked with the same certainty. A simple general robustness parameter (E) in form of the expected number of comparisons for each ranking element is defined and correlated to the uncertainty analysis results. A simple equation relates E to the number of elements and the number of parameters, respectively. The magnitude of the ranking uncertainty is shown to increase rapidly when the E value decreases below 4-5 comparisons per element. When the E value exceeds 5 the ranking uncertainty becomes nearly constant and independent on the actual E value.