Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.     

Household preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for freshwater quality improvement in Pakistan’s Swat River Valley

This two-part study investigates household preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for water quality improvement of the Swat River in Pakistan. First, a four-point Likert scale was used to rank preferences for water quality benefits without using any financial metric. Results show that households have comparatively strong preferences for non-use benefits. Second, a contingent valuation question was designed to determine WTP for adopting a management plan developed exclusively for water quality improvement in the Swat River. The estimated annual mean WTP per household for water quality improvement is $2.40 when donating to an NGO. Generalizing this value to households living in Swat Valley would generate up to $544,000 per year. The present value aggregate benefit for 15 years would be sufficient to cover the present value of aggregate costs to adopt the management plan. A mandatory program that would require paying for the management plan generates half the WTP compared to the voluntary plan, but is still sufficient to cover costs and may be more feasible than a voluntary program because payment is assured.     

The contemporary cement cycle of the United States

A country-level stock and flow model for cement, an important construction material, was developed based on a material flow analysis framework. Using this model, the contemporary cement cycle of the United States was constructed by analyzing production, import, and export data for different stages of the cement cycle. The United States currently supplies approximately 80% of its cement consumption through domestic production and the rest is imported. The average annual net addition of in-use new cement stock over the period 2000–2004 was approximately 83 million metric tons and amounts to 2.3 tons per capita of concrete. Nonfuel carbon dioxide emissions (42 million metric tons per year) from the calcination phase of cement manufacture account for 62% of the total 68 million tons per year of cement production residues. The end-of-life cement discards are estimated to be 33 million metric tons per year, of which between 30% and 80% is recycled. A significant portion of the infrastructure in the United States is reaching the end of its useful life and will need to be replaced or rehabilitated; this could require far more cement than might be expected from economic forecasts of demand for cement.     

Environmental Information Systems in Malaria Risk Mapping and Epidemic Forecasting

Every year between one and two million African children under five die of malaria. If one adds to this the contribution of malaria to all-cause infant mortality then clearly the burden of the disease is catastrophic — a disaster quietly happening each and every year. New tools are needed urgently to support those currently available for control of the disease. An effective vaccine remains elusive. This article outlines the potential contribution to malaria control services of satellite information, which is being used by resource managers in other sectors. In particular, it highlights the lessons which can be learned from early warning systems in other areas, especially those designed to respond to famine. An appendix provides a brief introduction to satellite data and their interpretation.     

Maturation shifts in a temperate marine fish population cannot be explained by simulated changes in temperature-dependent growth and maturity

To disentangle genetic and environmental influences on phenotypic traits that influence maturation of fish, it would be useful to predict the expected change due to environment alone to compare with observations. This requires a realistically scaled, species-specific life history model of environmentally determined variation in individual growth and maturation. In this study, inter-annual variability in the proportion of mature haddock in the west North Sea was predicted using a stochastic, individual-based simulation model incorporating a temperature-dependent maturation threshold. This species and region are particularly relevant to the debate about the relative importance of genetic and climate change because North Sea haddock have experienced both high fishing mortality and substantial warming in recent decades. Using observed temperatures in combination with temperature-dependent models for growth and maturation, the simulation model predicted year-to-year variation in length and maturity at age expected for cohorts produced from 1979 to 2006. The simulated proportions mature at age 2 were then compared to the observed proportions in an annual bottom trawl survey. Although the model explained much of the high-frequency variation in maturation, the simulated time trend under-represented the rate of increase in the observed trend in proportions mature. This inability of the temperature-dependent life history model to predict the magnitude of change appears consistent with a long-term decline in the maturation threshold. This result provides indirect support for a genetic change in a key life history trait.     

A constrained least-squares approach to combine bottom-up and top-down CO2 flux estimates

Terrestrial CO₂ flux estimates are obtained from two fundamentally different methods generally termed bottom-up and top-down approaches. Inventory methods are one type of bottom-up approach which uses various sources of information such as crop production surveys and forest monitoring data to estimate the annual CO₂ flux at locations covering a study region. Top-down approaches are various types of atmospheric inversion methods which use CO₂ concentration measurements from monitoring towers and atmospheric transport models to estimate CO₂ flux over a study region. Both methods can also quantify the uncertainty associated with their estimates. Historically, these two approaches have produced estimates that differ considerably. The goal of this work is to construct a statistical model which sensibly combines estimates from the two approaches to produce a new estimate of CO₂ flux for our study region. The two approaches have complementary strengths and weaknesses, and our results show that certain aspects of the uncertainty associated with each of the approaches are greatly reduced by combining the methods. Our model is purposefully simple and designed to take the two approaches’ estimates and measures of uncertainty at ‘face value’. Specifically, we use a constrained least-squares approach to appropriately weigh the estimates by the inverse of their variance, and the constraint imposes agreement between the two sources. Our application involves nearly 18,000 flux estimates for the upper midwest United States. The constrained dependencies result in a non-sparse covariance matrix, but computation requires only minutes due to the structure of the model.     

Speciation and long- and short-term molecular-level dynamics of soil organic sulfur studied by X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy

We investigated speciation, oxidative state changes, and long- and short-term molecular-level dynamics of organic S after 365 d of aerobic incubation with and without the addition of sugarcane residue using XANES spectroscopy. Soil samples were collected from the upper 15 cm of undisturbed grasslands since 1880, from undisturbed grasslands since 1931, and from cultivated fields since 1880 in the western United States. We found three distinct groups of organosulfur compounds in these grassland-derived soils: (i) strongly reduced (S to S) organic S that encompasses thiols, monosulfides, disulfides, polysulfides, and thiophenes; (ii) organic S in intermediate oxidation (S to S) states, which include sulfoxides and sulfonates; and (iii) strongly oxidized (S) organic S, which comprises ester-SO-S. The first two groups represent S directly linked to C and accounted for 80% of the total organic S detected by XANES from the undisturbed soils. Aerobic incubation without the addition of sugarcane residue led to a 21% decline in organanosulfur compounds directly linked to C and to up to an 82% increase inorganic S directly bonded to O. Among the C-bonded S compounds, low-valence thiols, sulfides, thiophenic S, and intermediate-valence sulfoxide S seem to be highly susceptible to microbial attack and may represent the most reactive components of organic S pool in these grassland soils. Sulfonate S exhibited a much lower short-term reactivity. The incorporation of sugarcane residue resulted in an increase in organosulfur compounds directly bonded to C at the early stage of incubation. However, similar to soils incubated without residue addition, the proportion of organic S directly linked to C continued to decline with increasing duration of aerobic incubation, whereas the proportion of organic S directly bonded to O showed a steady rise.     

A comparative analysis of the psychosocial impacts of waste disposal facilities

This paper reports the results of a comparative analysis of the psychosocial impacts of municipal solid waste disposal facilities (both landfills and incinerators) in six communities in the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia, Canada. Telephone surveys were administered to random samples of residents living around each facility between 1990 and 1995 (total n=1203). The results of logistic regression analyses show that type of facility was the strongest predictor of residents' awareness, concern, and actions taken in response to site concerns. Essentially, residents living in close proximity to a landfill had a higher probability of reporting awareness, concern or actions than residents living around an incinerator site. There was little evidence of differences in reactions between Ontario and British Columbia (BC) residents, despite variations in provincial policies on waste disposal. The effects of other predictors, with the exception of involvement in the local community, were not consistent, supporting previous findings that the determinants of facility impacts are outcome‐specific. It is essential that environmental managers take this constellation of factors into account in the operation of existing, or siting of new, facilities.     

Toward an epistemology of public participation

This article uses an analysis of the 'knowledge politics' of the Botany Community Participation and Review Committee (CPRC) to argue that the Habermasian ideals framing the CPRC are flawed. Habermasian communicative ethics centre upon the notion that fair, free and open forms of debate and communication ensure that no one form of reasoning and/or knowledge dominates others, and so commonly frame attempts to facilitate public participation in technical decision-making. However, in practice, Habermas' advocacy of 'the power of the better argument' (1984) supports adversarial debate and favours conventionally validated (i.e. scientific) forms of knowledge over others. This article identifies this departure from the vision underpinning communicative ethics with the routine deployment of a flawed conception of knowledge. This view - that knowledge is representational in character (that is, in effect, a 'mirror' onto the world) - marginalises lay contributions by rendering them of secondary status (i.e. that they are 'values'); diminishes them by insisting that they take conventional 'expert like' representational form; and supports 'deficit model' approaches (the belief that public antipathy results from knowledge 'deficits' resolvable by expert mediated enhancements in technical literacy). A non-representational epistemology is used to argue that effective participation must rather account for how knowledge is constructed by and through processes, including those of participation/deliberation, rather than existing autonomously of them. The implications of this emphasis on processes, rather than on the sources of and formal characteristics of knowledge, are examined both for public participation and for the dynamics of late-modernity more generally.