The influence of socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors on municipality-scale land-cover change in Mexico

Land-cover change is the result of complex multi-scale interactions between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Demographic change, in particular, is thought to be a major driver of forest change. Most studies have evaluated these interactions at the regional or the national level, but few studies have evaluated these dynamics across multiple spatial scales within a country. In this study, we evaluated the effect of demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables on land-cover change between 2001 and 2010 for all Mexican municipalities (n?=?2,443) as well as by biome (n?=?4). We used a land-cover classification based on 250-m MODIS data to examine the change in cover classes (i.e., woody, mixed woody, and agriculture/herbaceous vegetation). We evaluated the trends of land-cover change and identified the major factors correlated with woody vegetation change in Mexico. At the national scale, the variation in woody vegetation was best explained by environmental variables, particularly precipitation; municipalities where woody cover increased tended to be in areas with low average annual precipitation (i.e., desert and dry forest biomes). Demographic variables did not contribute much to the model at the national scale. Elevation, temperature, and population density explained the change in woody cover when municipalities were grouped by biome (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and deserts). Land-cover change at the biome level showed two main trends: (1) the tropical moist biome lost woody vegetation to agriculture and herbaceous vegetation, and (2) the desert biome increased in woody vegetation within more open-canopy shrublands.     

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.     

Effect of ecological factors on the seasonal growth of Alnus incana (L.) moench trees in Northern Karelia

Studies on speckled alder trees in an alder forest of grass-herb type in the northern taiga subzone of Northern Karelia have shown that specific features of the seasonal growth of shoots, leaves, and stems in these trees depend on a number of ecological factors, with air temperature playing the main role.     

Small mammals in the diets of the Long-eared Owl (Asio otus) and Short-eared Owl (A. flammeus) in the south of Western Siberia

Diets of the Long-eared and Short-eared Owls, closely related species with overlapping ranges, have been studied in the south of Western Siberia (the Baraba Lowland) by analyzing bone remains in pellets. The results show that both species in the south of the Baraba Lowland employ similar strategies of food resource use, which, however, differ in some aspects. In the Short-eared Owl, the hunting range is apparently more restricted. During the nesting period, these birds occupy relatively moist habitats along riverbanks and protect their hunting grounds. The Long-eared Owl nests in mainly mesic habitats, in forest outliers, and can supplement its diet with shrews (Sorex) and steppe rodent species. The diets of both species largely consist of murine rodent species that are dominant or subdominant in the small mammal community of the Baraba forest-steppe. Seasonal and interannual variations in the food spectra of both species have been revealed.     

Land use history of a floodplain area during the last 200 years in the Upper-Tisza region (Hungary)

Research into landscape history makes it possible to follow landscape changes in the past and support landscape management, conservation and restoration programs. Floodplain habitats are lost, isolated and fragmented on account of land use. Nowadays, these habitats are threatened by modifications in the natural water regime, as well as agricultural and forestry practices. Floodplains have great importance because they provide a transition between aquatic habitats and terrestrial biotopes. Our analysis of aerial photographs and topographical maps revealed that the major predicted changes in the study area are related to agricultural abandonment and afforestation. The comparison of land cover maps from 1784 to 2005 showed intensification of agriculture with land cover conversions from arable land and orchards to grasslands, marshes and woodlands. The land use types that are mostly responsible for the fragmentation of the landscape are arable land, economic plantations and orchards. We found that fragmentation was greater after 1956. This was caused by socioeconomic changes and showed that the habitats of floodplains have changed intensively during the last 200 years. Knowledge of this last 200 years of history contributes to a more careful and wiser management of the region through biodiversity protection and environmental development.     

Exploring the effects of population growth on future land use change in the Las Vegas Wash watershed: an integrated approach of geospatial modeling and analytics

The Las Vegas Valley metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing areas in the southwestern United States. The rapid urbanization has presented many environmental challenges. For instance, as population growth and urbanization continue, the supply of sufficient clean water will become a concern. In addition, the area is also experiencing the longest drought in history, and the volume of water storage in Lake Mead, the main fresh water supply for the entire region, has been reduced greatly. The water quality in the main stem of the Las Vegas Wash (LVW) and Lake Mead may also be significantly affected. In order to develop effective sustainable management plans, the very first step is to predict the plausible future urbanization and land use patterns. This paper presents an approach to predict the future land use pattern at the LVW watershed using a Markov cellular automata model. The multi-criteria evaluation was used to couple population density as a variable depicting the driving force of urbanization in the model. Moreover, landscape metrics were used to analyze land use changes in order to better understand the dynamics of urban development in the LVW watershed. The predicted future land use maps for the years 2030 and 2050 show substantial urban development in the area, much of which are located in areas sensitive to source water protections. The results of the analysis provide valuable information for local planners and policy makers, assisting their efforts in constructing alternative sustainable urban development schemes and environmental management strategies.     

On causes of gigantism in herbaceous plants

Landscape-geochemical features providing for manifestation of gigantism in herbaceous plants have been revealed in natural habitats in the south of Sakhalin and Kunashir islands. Tall herb assemblages have proved to be associated with geochemical landscapes characterized by reducing (gley or hydrogen sulfide) conditions and increased contents of petroleum hydrocarbons and some trace elements (total and movable forms). A hypothesis is put forward that gigantism in herbaceous plants is manifested in zones of active faults, which serve as a kind of conduits supplying endogenous heat, matter, and water to the root systems.     

Ecological plasticity of nest-building behavior of the redwing (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Turdus iliacus</Emphasis> L.) in Karelia according to individual marking data

The placement of 1918 redwing nests has been analyzed, including 214 nests of 90 marked females (2–8 known nests per female). A high level of intraspecific and individual variation in utilization of different types of nest supports is described. It is shown that redwings choose nest sites without regard to previous experience (either positive or negative) or to the placement of their parent nest. Under conditions of the northern taiga, such behavior provides for significant reduction of chick mortality by the end of the season. This is con- firmed by comparison with the song thrush (T. philomelos), which nests mainly on spruce trees.