Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

Thoughts concerning the economic valuation of landscapes

The incorporation of economic thinking into the valuation of landscapes is still relatively new. It is an approach that yields valuable new insights and can help with prioritizing the use of scarce resources to improve and/or preserve landscapes. This paper explores and discusses the uses and limitations of economic valuation of landscapes from market failure, policy process, and theoretical and philosophical perspectives.     

Dioxins in adipose tissue of women in Southern Spain

Seventeen polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were quantified in adipose tissue samples of non-occupationally exposed women living in Southern Spain. Geometric mean levels of sum of congeners and WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ(2005) were 410 and 17.9pgg(-1) fat, respectively. Among PCDDs, octachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) showed the highest concentration with a mean value of 265pgg(-1) fat, followed by 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD (49.3pgg(-1) fat) and 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD (45.2pgg(-1) fat). These three congeners were responsible for around 90% of the sum of all PCDD/F congeners in adipose tissue. The geometric mean 2,3,7,8-TCDD value was 1.87pgg(-1) fat. 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF (8.43pgg(-1) fat) showed the highest concentration among the PCDFs, followed by 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF (4.17pgg(-1) fat) and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF (3.28pgg(-1) fat), and these three congeners were responsible for 4% of the sum of all studied PCDD/F congeners in adipose tissue and 76% of the sum of ten PCDFs. 1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF was the only congener not quantified in any sample, while 1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF, OCDF and 2,3,7,8-TCDF were found in 5, 16, 16 and 19 samples, respectively. All other congeners were quantifiable in all 20 samples. Congeners contributing most to the WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ(2005) were 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD (31.6%), 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD (28.3%) and 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF (14.6%). The body burden of log-transformed WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ(2005) levels increased with age (B=0.02; 95% CI=0.01, 0.03; p=0.02). Although these adipose tissue PCDD/F levels are similar to previously published findings in Spain and other European countries, further research is needed to determine trends in the exposure of women to these chemical residues.     

Identification of key parameters controlling dissolved oxygen migration and attenuation in fractured crystalline rocks

In the crystalline rocks of the Canadian Shield, geochemical conditions are currently reducing at depths of 500-1000 m. However, during future glacial periods, altered hydrologic conditions could potentially result in enhanced recharge of glacial melt water containing a relatively high concentration of dissolved oxygen (O2). It is therefore of interest to investigate the physical and geochemical processes, including naturally-occurring redox reactions, that may control O2 ingress. In this study, the reactive transport code MIN3P is used in combination with 2k factorial analyses to identify the most important parameters controlling oxygen migration and attenuation in fractured crystalline rocks. Scenarios considered are based on simplified conceptual models that include a single vertical fracture, or a fracture zone, contained within a rock matrix that extends from the ground surface to a depth of 500 m. Consistent with field observations, Fe(II)-bearing minerals are present in the fractures (i.e. chlorite) and the rock matrix (biotite and small quantities of pyrite). For the parameter ranges investigated, results indicate that for the single fracture case, the most influential factors controlling dissolved O2 ingress are flow velocity in the fracture, fracture aperture, and the biotite reaction rate in the rock matrix. The most important parameters for the fracture zone simulations are flow velocity in the individual fractures, pO2 in the recharge water, biotite reaction rate, and to a lesser degree the abundance and reactivity of chlorite in the fracture zone, and the fracture zone width. These parameters should therefore receive increased consideration during site characterization, and in the formulation of site-specific models intended to predict O2 behavior in crystalline rocks.     

An evaluation of global QSAR models for the prediction of the toxicity of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis

This study presents an analysis of the ability of a two-parameter response surface, a multiple linear regression and a neural network model to produce global quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) to predict the toxic potency of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis. The phenolic toxicity data set analysed is characterised by multiple mechanisms of toxic action. The study aimed to evaluate the confidence that can be applied to the modelling of the differing mechanisms of action. Assessment of confidence was decided in terms of whether the statistics for the global models reflect the ability of the QSARs to model the individual mechanisms of toxic action present in the data set. The results showed that the global statistics only reflected the ability of models to predict the two non-covalent mechanisms (polar narcosis and respiratory uncoupling), with the metabolically transformed and electrophilic mechanism (pre-electrophiles and soft electrophiles) being modelled poorly by all three model building methods. The results confirm the difficulty in modelling electrophilic mechanisms of toxic action. The results also highlight the fact that this poor predictivity is often 'hidden' in good statistical fit of some global models. In particular these results emphasise that for practical predictive purposes the mechanistic applicability domain is required to give confidence to estimated toxicity values.     

Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 2. Parameter estimation by inverse analysis

This study focuses on the verification of test interpretations for different state analyses of diffusion experiments. Part 1 of this study identified that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium state analyses for the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs are generally feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In Part 2 we investigate parameter identifiability in transient-state analysis of reservoir concentration variation using a numerical approach. For increased generality, the analytical models, objective functions and Jacobian matrix necessary for inverse analysis of transient-state data are reformulated using unified dimensionless parameters. In these dimensionless forms, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and a single dimensionless parameter represents the sorption property. The dimensionless objective functions are evaluated for individual test methods and parameter identifiability is discussed in relation to the sorption property. The effects of multiple minima and measurement error on parameter identifiability are also investigated. The main findings are that inverse problems for inlet and outlet reservoir concentration analyses are generally unstable and well-posed, respectively. Where the tracer is sorptive, the inverse problem for the inlet reservoir concentration analysis may have multiple minima. When insufficient measurement data is collected, multiple solutions may result and this should be taken into consideration when inversely analyzing data including that of inlet reservoir concentration. Verification of test interpretation by cross-checking different state analyses is feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In an actual experiment, test interpretation validity is demonstrated through consistency between theory and practice for different state analyses.     

Therapeutic governance: psycho-social intervention and trauma risk management,.

This paper critically analyses the significance of psycho-social intervention as a new form of international therapeutic governance based on social risk management. First, the paper examines the international psycho-social model and its origins in an Anglo-American therapeutic ethos. Second, the paper argues that psycho-social approaches jeopardise local coping strategies. Third, the paper highlights the potential political, social and psychological consequences of the pathologisation of war-affected societies. Finally the paper concludes that therapeutic governance represents the reduction of politics to administration.