新建水库初期磷氮变化的动态模拟研究

本文首先建立磷氮时空分布模型并确定模型参数的率定方法。文章模拟了新建清平水库建库初期磷氮变化情况,得出由不稳定到稳定的过程。水库磷氮时空变化的模拟结果表明,空间分布是从库尾到大坝浓度逐渐递砬,时间分布是一年中Ｐ,Ｎ浓度七月份最高,年初年末最低,其分布央线类似高斯分布。     

论城市灾害管理模型

城市是人类抗灾,防灾的重点,加强城市灾害防治是城市,乃至整个国家可持续发展的必要保证,城市灾害管理是减轻城市灾害的主要的主要措施之一,本文用管理学,控制论,决策论的思想建立了城市灾害管理的模型。     

碳中和愿景下电力部门低碳转型路径研究

碳中和愿景一方面加速了全社会电气化发展,致使电力需求持续增加,另一方面对尽早实现零碳电力提出要求,电力部门低碳转型进程更加紧迫而复杂。本文首先定性分析碳中和背景下电力部门的总体转型思路和技术不确定性影响,其次采用电力部门与终端部门耦合的C~3IAM/NET模型对电力需求进行预测,同时根据关键低碳技术发展的保守预期和积极预期设计多种情景,以开展电力低碳转型路径优化和成本效益研究。结果显示,发电碳排放量峰值可能出现在40亿～42亿吨,在2049—2060年有望实现零碳电力,电力部门低碳转型速度和效果因技术不确定性而存在明显差异。2021—2060年电力低碳转型累计投入为171万亿～180万亿元,CCS技术累计减排贡献超过250亿吨,可再生能源电力占比需达到68%以上,风电和光电将成为主要电力。     

中国与欧美非道路移动机械排放标准对比分析

随着非道路移动机械保有量与使用量的不断增加,其排放造成的环境问题日益严重,相关的防治策略研究亟待加强。本研究首先总结了中国与欧美对非道路移动机械类型的划分方式及标准;其次,对中国与欧美的非道路移动机械排放标准进行归纳;最后,对现行中国与欧美的非道路移动机械排放标准进行了全面对比分析,分析发现,国内标准与欧美标准之间仍存在显著差距,以期为国内制定科学的非道路移动机械排放标准提供参考,为污染物防治策略的制定提供理论支撑。     

Air bag effectiveness as function of impact speed

An investigation was conducted to estimate the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity. The study consisted of three parts: a theoretical idealization, an analysis of National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS), and a reanalysis of previously published Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data. The theoretical analysis looked at idealized risk curves as a function of velocity; assuming that the air bag offers a benefit for both belted and unbelted occupants. Analysis of the NASS/CDS data looked at the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity for Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ injuries. The reanalysis of the previously published FARS data looked at the effectiveness of the air bag as a function of velocity for fatalities. The theoretical analysis indicates that the air bag effectiveness should be greatest at the low velocities. The field data analysis of both NASS/CDS and FARS were consistent with the theoretical analysis, indicating that air bags are most effective at the lower velocities, below 40 kph (25 mph), for both belted and unbelted occupants. Although it was not possible to estimate a different effect for belted and unbelted for fatalities using FARS, it was possible for MAIS 3+ using NASS/CDS. For unbelted occupants the effectiveness goes to zero or becomes negative above 40 kph (25 mph) for MAIS 3+, and for belted occupants the effectiveness stays positive but with significantly lower magnitude for speeds above 40 kph (25 mph).     

雪崩危险度评价的类型、特征和方法

在提出“积雪单元”概念的基础上,将雪崩危险度评价分为区域雪崩危险度评价和点位雪崩危险度评价。从发生学角度,论证、筛选出发生危险度评价的4个主导因素,即气候、积雪厚度、坡度和植被类型与覆盖度,并提出了明确的指标体系。详细论证了两类评价各自的特征、操作性评价程序和方法。区域雪崩危险度评价是在划分积雪单元的基础上,评定各单元的等级高低并进行制图;点位雪崩危险度评价则涉及到雪崩发生点位和可能的承灾点位,分为发生危险度评价和到达危险度评价,可根据已有的统计资料来预测其概率。     

Analysis of microcystins in cyanobacteria blooms and surface water samples from Meiliang Bay,Taihu Lake,China

Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China. In recent years, the water pollution of cyanobacteria blooms has become a severe problem in this area. Microcystins (MCs) are an important group of toxic compounds mainly produced by some cyanobacteria species and have both acute and chronic hepatotoxic effects on animals and humans. This paper presents the first data on the identification and detection of MCs in both natural occurring cyanobacteria blooms and surface water samples (0-0.5 m), collected from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China. A conventional method for extraction and isolation of MCs from cyanobacteria blooms was applied. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis showed that the main toxic component in the cyanobacteria materials was MC-LR. The monoclonal antibody (mAb) against MC-LR produced by hybridoma technique was employed for direct competitive ELISA to detect the concentrations of MCs in bloom and water samples collected in 2001. The results not only revealed the presence of MCs but also temporal variations of MCs levels of three sampling stations in Meiliang Bay in 1 year. It is obvious that the MC contents were relatively higher during warm months and related with the status of eutrophication. Our study indicates the threat associated with MCs in water body of Taihu Lake. To prevent the MCs potential hazard on public health in this area, some necessary measures of monitoring and control of growth of cyanobacteria are urgently needed.     

云南省工业化进程判断及路径选择

云南省是一个人口众多、生产力水平低下的边疆、民族、山区省份，其工业发展严重滞后于全国平均水平。要使云南省实现经济增长方式的转变，缩小同发达地区的差距，实现跨越式的发展，坚持走工业化的道路是必然选择。分析了目前云南省工业发展中存在的问题，对其工业化的发展阶段做出判断，并针对今后云南省工业化的路径选择问题进行了分析。     

二次催化-固定床生物氧化降解焦化废水的试验研究

制备了一种铁碳基／过渡金属复合催化剂，其物质摩尔配比为Fe：C：TiO2：MnO2：ZnO=2：1：1：1：0．3，使用该催化剂拟定了二次催化—固定床生物氧化降解流程。在pH＝6、温度=90℃的条件下，用该流程处理煤化工工业所产生的洗煤气净化脱酚、蒸氨剩余废水，在无需对原废水进行稀释的前提下可很好地对此废水进行处理，使处理后的出水指标达到《污水综合排放标准》（GB89r78—1966）中规定的二级排放标准。     

可拓法评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性

为了量化煤矿瓦斯爆炸的可能性,并为防治瓦斯爆炸提供量化指标,借鉴可拓学原理,对煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性进行预评估。首先,详细阐述可拓学评估原理;接着,为了验证煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性可拓评估的可行性,结合某一煤矿实例,比选煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的评价指标,并确定煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的分类标准,构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性评估的经典域、节域和物元;然后,为了避免确定指标权重的人为主观因素的影响,提出用简单关联函数确定指标权重;最后,计算煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的关联函数值和关联度,确定瓦斯爆炸易发性的等级及其变量特征值。经计算,煤矿爆炸易发性的可拓评估结果为"很小"等级。同时,为了验证可拓评估结果的合理性,将其与模糊评估进行比较,两者所得评估结果相一致。从而表明:将可拓学应用于煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性评估是合理可行的。