Modelling of a large-scale urban contamination situation and remediation alternatives

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the first of two modelling exercises, which was based on Chernobyl fallout data in the town of Pripyat, Ukraine. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces and radionuclides, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a “no action” situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided a valuable opportunity to compare modelling approaches and parameter values, as well as to compare the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures with respect to short-term and long-term reduction of predicted doses to people.     

COMPUTER ASSISTED NEGOTIATION OF MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER RESOURCES CONFLICTS1

ABSTRACT: Since the early 1970s, a large volume of literature has accumulated related to multiobjective water resources management problems. A relatively small portion of this specifically addresses the negotiation process required when there are multiple decision makers with conflicting objectives. This paper focuses on that process and describes a computer program designed to assist such negotiation processes. This interactive computer assisted negotiation support system is called ICANS. ICANS is designed for dynamic, multi-issue, multi-party negotiation problems. Based on information provided in confidence by each party via an interactive graphical interface, the program can help determine if there exist any possible alternatives that are equivalent or even preferred to each party's decision in the absence of a negotiated agreement. If such alternatives exist, through a series of iterations in which each party's input data, assumptions, and preferences may change, ICANS can assist the parties in their search for a mutually acceptable and preferred agreement. A simple example illustrates the data requirements and the use of ICANS in negotiation experiments.     

Model testing using data on 131I released from Hanford

The Hanford test scenario described an accidental release of 131I to the environment from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant in September 1963. Based on monitoring data collected after the release, this scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of BIOMASS to test models typically used in dose reconstructions. The primary exposure pathway in terms of contribution to human doses was ingestion of contaminated milk and vegetables. Predicted mean doses to the thyroid of reference individuals from ingestion of 131I ranged from 0.0001 to 0.8 mSv. For one location, predicted doses to the thyroids of two children with high milk consumption ranged from 0.006 to 2 mSv. The predicted deposition at any given location varied among participants by a factor of 5-80. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of assessment methods and conceptual approaches, testing model predictions against measurements, and identifying the most important contributors to uncertainty in the assessment result. Key factors affecting predictions included the approach to handling incomplete data, interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, adjustment of models for site-specific conditions, and treatment of uncertainties.