Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Reside0ntial solar water heating as a potential Clean Development Mechanism project: A South African case study

A community-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project – asolar water heating project in a low-income community in South Africa –is analysed to illustrate the methodological and policy challenges that faceimplementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. We evaluate four baseline options, andthree potential CDM interventions. The emissions reductions range from –670 to +5 929 Mg CO₂ per year, with all option but oneshowing positive emission reductions. Using metered solar water heatingwith liquefied petroleum gas back-up as the CDM intervention, and electricstorage geysers as the baseline, the annual emissions reductions are 5686 Mg CO₂. The cost-effectiveness from the national perspective,which is the incremental life cycle costs divided by the lifetime emissionsreductions, is –$18 per Mg CO₂ From the perspective of theCDM investor, however, the cost-effectiveness is $5.2 per mgCO₂, assuming that the investor receives all of the carbon credits forproviding the incremental capital investment. From our analysis, weconclude that using the current technology (kerosene stoves) as a baselineis probably not appropriate because it does not reflect likely future trendsand also penalises the community for their poverty and current lack ofinfrastructure. We also highlight the importance of credit sharing, and howit affects the cost-effectiveness of the project from the CDM investor'sperspective. The lessons from this analysis are important for the currentinternational policy debate on how to preferentially treat small-scale CDMprojects.