How sensitive are elasticities of long-run stochastic growth to how environmental variability is modelled?

A variable environment leaves a signature in a population's dynamics. Deriving statistical and mathematical models of how environmental variability affects population projections has - in the wake of reports of substantial climatic fluctuations - received much recent attention. If the model changes, then so too does the population projection. This is because a different model of environmental variability changes estimates of long-run stochastic growth, which is a function of demographic rates and their temporal sequence. Decomposing elasticities of long-run stochastic growth into constituent parts can assess the relative influence of different components. Here, we investigate the consequences of changing the environmental state definition, and therefore altering the shape of demographic rate distributions and their temporal sequence, by using age-structured matrix models to project vertebrate populations into the future under a range of environmental scenarios. The identity of the most influential demographic rate was consistent among all approaches that perturbed only the mean, but was not when only the variance was perturbed. Furthermore, the influence of each demographic rate fluctuated among projections by up to factors of six and two for changes to the variance and mean, respectively. These changes in influence depend in part upon how environmental variability - in particular, the color of environmental noise - is incorporated. In the light of predictions of increasing climatic variability in the future, these results suggest caution when drawing quantitative conclusions from stochastic population projections.     

Practical guide to coproduction in conservation science

We considered a series of conservation-related research projects on the island of Pemba, Tanzania, to reflect on the broad significance of Beier et al.’s recommendations for linking conservation science with practical conservation outcomes. The implementation of just some of their suggestions can advance a successful coproduction of actionable science by small research teams. Key elements include, first, scientists and managers working together in the field to ensure feedback in real time; second, questions jointly identified by managers and researchers to facilitate engaged collaboration; third, conducting research at multiple sites, thereby broadening managers’ abilities to reach multiple stakeholders; and fourth, establishing a multidisciplinary team because most of the concerns of local managers require input from multiple disciplines.     

Modelling habitat conversion in miombo woodlands: insights from Tanzania

Understanding the drivers of natural habitat conversion is a major challenge, yet predicting where future losses may occur is crucial to preventing them. Here, we used Bayesian analysis to model spatio-temporal patterns of land-use/cover change in two protected areas designations and unclassified land in Tanzania using time-series satellite images. We further investigated the costs and benefits of preserving fragmenting habitat joining the two ecosystems over the next two decades. We reveal that habitat conversion is driven by human population, existing land-use systems and the road network. We also reveal the probability of habitat conversion to be higher in the least protected area category. Preservation of habitat linking the two ecosystems saving 1640 ha of land from conversion could store between 21,320 and 49,200 t of carbon in the next 20 years, with the potential for generating between US$ 85,280 and 131,200 assuming a REDD+ project is implemented.     

Channel Evolution Models as Predictors of Sediment Yield

This paper recounts our predictions of channel evolution of the Black Vermillion River (BVR) and sediment yields associated with the evolutionary sequence. Channel design parameters allowed for the prediction of stable channel form and coincident sediment yields. Measured erosion rates and basin‐specific bank erosion curves aided in prediction of the stream channel succession time frame. This understanding is critical in determining how and when to mitigate a myriad of instability consequences. The BVR drains approximately 1,062 km² in the glaciated region of Northeast Kansas. Once tallgrass prairie, the basin has been modified extensively for agricultural production. As such, channelization has shortened the river by nearly 26 km from pre‐European dimensions; shortening combined with the construction of numerous flow‐through structures have produced dramatic impacts on discharge and sediment dynamics. Nine stream reaches were established within three main tributaries of the BVR in 2007. Reaches averaged 490 m in length, were surveyed, and assessed for channel stability, while resurveys were conducted annually through 2010 to monitor change. This work illustrates the association of current stream state, in‐channel sediment contributions, and prediction of future erosion rates based on stream evolution informed by multiple models. Our findings suggest greater and more rapid sedimentation of a federal reservoir than has been predicted using standard sediment prediction methods.     

Improving the Evaluation of Conservation Programs

Abstract: The evaluation of conservation programs is rare but increasingly important in improving their effectiveness. Regular evaluations of conservation programs and the implementation of recommendations resulting from such assessments are infrequent because of resistance by participants and lack of funding. Evaluations may be internal or external, depending on the purpose of the review and how broadly it is focused. We strongly recommend external peer review of long-term complex conservation programs every 5 years, supported by more frequent (annual) internal reviews. Criteria for success must encompass both biological and social measures and include learning and the application of new knowledge to management. Evaluations must also go beyond monitoring to assess the value of the program. We emphasize the need to include the organization and function of a conservation program (the process) in any evaluation in addition to substantive criteria for success, which usually involve biological measures (numbers). A dysfunctional program organization and process can as effectively cripple a conservation effort as can a major biological catastrophe. We provide examples of different types of conservation program evaluations, including moderated workshops and case-study analysis, and provide advice on the logistics and organization of the review, emphasizing the importance of the evaluation process itself to a successful outcome. One important aspect of an evaluation is having an individual with leadership ability and considerable expertise to organize the format and oversee the review process itself. Second, it is essential at the outset to ensure agreement among the program participants and the review committee on the goals and objectives of the conservation program, what is to be evaluated, and the criteria for defining success. Finally, the best evaluations are inclusive and involve all participants and stakeholders.     

Seaweed secondary metabolites as antifoulants: effects of Dictyota spp. diterpenes on survivorship, settlement, and development of marine invertebrate larvae

Summary. A recent investigation showed that the brown seaweed Dictyota menstrualis was unfouled relative to co-occurring seaweeds, and that larvae of fouling invertebrates avoided settling on D. menstrualis due to chemicals on its surface. The secondary metabolites dictyol E and pachydictyol A are among the compounds found on this alga's surface. In the present study, we tested the effects of specific diterpenes from Dictyota on the survivorship, growth, and development of invertebrate larvae and developing juveniles that could foul seaweeds. Exposure to dictyol E, dictyol B acetate, pachydictyol A, and dictyodial from Dictyota menstrualis and D. ciliolata caused significant larval mortality, abnormal development, and reduce growth rates for three species of co-occurring invertebrates when their larvae were forced into contact with these metabolites. Larvae were damaged at metabolite concentrations as low as 5% of maximum possible surface concentrations of these compounds for the populations of Dictyota we studied. The negative effects of these secondary metabolites on potential foulers, in conjunction with data demonstrating larval avoidance of dictyol-covered surfaces, suggest that these compounds could function as chemical defenses against fouling, and could select for larvae that avoid hosts producing these metabolites. Received 25 May 1998; accepted 22 June 1998.     

Evaluation of NO(x) flue gas analyzers for accuracy and their applicability for low-concentration measurements

The requirements of the Texas State Implementation Plan of the U.S. Clean Air Act for the Houston-Galveston Ozone Nonattainment Area stipulate large reductions in oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emissions. A large number of sources at Dow Chemical Co. sites within the nonattainment area may require the addition of continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS) for online analysis of NO(x), CO, and O2. At the outset of this work, it was not known whether the analyzers could accurately measure NO(x) as low as 2 ppm. Therefore, NO(x) CEMS analyzers from five different companies were evaluated for their ability to reliably measure NO(x) in the 2-20 ppm range. Testing was performed with a laboratory apparatus that accurately simulated different mixtures of flue gas and, on a limited basis, simulated a dual-train sampling system on a gas turbine. The results indicate that this method is a reasonable approach for analyzer testing and reveal important technical performance aspects for accurate NO(x) measurements. Several commercial analyzers, if installed in a CEMS application with sampling conditioning components similar to those used in this study, can meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's measurement data quality requirements for accuracy.     

The dechlorination of cyclodiene pesticides by methanogenic granular sludge

Cyclodiene pesticides: aldrin, isodrin, dieldrin and endrin were dechlorinated by methanogenic granular sludge in spiked batch tests. Initial pesticides concentration was 7 or 9 mgl(-1). Two monodechlorinated analogues were formed during the conversions of aldrin and isodrin. Dieldrin was transformed into two monodechlorinated products as well as into aldrin and two monodechlorinated derivatives of aldrin. In respect of endrin three monodechlorinated and three didechlorinated products were found. The dechlorination of endrin was the most rapid, and was almost complete within 28 days. The dechlorinations of aldrin, isodrin and dieldrin were much slower: over a period of 3 months only 59%, 70% and 88% was transformed, respectively. The amounts of released chloride corresponded 0.54 +/- 0.23, 1.05 +/- 0.25, 1.10 +/- 0.12 of theoretical value for suggested reactions, for aldrin, isodrin and dieldrin respectively. For endrin it was much higher. These transformations did not occur in control samples containing autoclaved granules or in control blank samples without sludge. However, in aldrin spiked blanks, a conversion into a six-chlorinated analogue was found.