Uncertainty Reduction of the Flood Stage Forecasting Using Neural Networks Model1

Abstract: The Elman Discrete Recurrent Neural Networks Model (EDRNNM), which is one of the special types of neural networks model, is developed and applied for the flood stage forecasting at the Musung station (No. 1) of the Wi‐stream catchment, which is one of the International Hydrological Program representative basins, Korea. A total of 135 different training patterns, which involve hidden nodes, standardization process, data length, and lead‐time, are selected for the minimization of the architectural uncertainty. The model parameters, such as optimal connection weights and biases, are estimated during the training performance of the EDRNNM, and we apply them to evaluate the validation performance of the EDRNNM. Sensitivity analysis is used to reduce the uncertainty of input data information of the EDRNNM. As the results of sensitivity analysis, the Improved EDRNNM consists of four input nodes resulting from the exclusion of Dongkok station (No.5) in initial five input nodes group of the EDRNNM. The accuracy of flood stage forecasting during the training and validation performances of the Improved EDRNNM remains the same as that of the EDRNNM. The Improved EDRNNM, therefore, gives highly reliable flood stage forecasting. The best optimal EDRNNM, so called the Improved EDRNNM, is determined by elimination of the uncertainties of architectural and input data information in this study. Consequently, we can avoid unnecessary data collection and operate the flood stage forecasting system economically.     

Ozonation of oxytetracycline and toxicological assessment of its oxidation by-products

Antibiotic formulation effluents are well known for their difficult elimination by traditional bio-treatment methods and their important contribution to environmental pollution due to its fluctuating and recalcitrant nature. In the present study the effect of ozonation on the degradation of oxytetracycline (OTC) aqueous solution (100mgl(-1)) at different pH values (3, 7 and 11) was investigated. Ozone (11mgl(-1) corresponds the concentration of ozone in gas phase) was chosen considering its rapid reaction and decomposition rate. The concentration of oxytetracycline, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and BOD5/COD ratio were the parameters to evaluate the efficiency of the ozonation process. In addition, the toxic potential of the OTC degradation was investigated by the bioluminescence test using the LUMIStox 300 instrument and results were expressed as the percentage inhibition of the luminescence of the marine bacteria Vibrio fischeri. The results demonstrate that ozonation as a partial step of a combined treatment concept is a potential technique for biodegradability enhancement of effluents from pharmaceutical industries containing high concentration of oxytetracycline provided that the appropriate ozonation period is selected. At pH 11 and after 60min of ozonation of oxytetracycline aqueous solutions (100 and 200mgl(-1)) the BOD5/COD ratios were 0.69 and 0.52, respectively. It was also shown that COD removal rates increase with increasing pH as a consequence of enhanced ozone decomposition rates at elevated pH values. The results of bioluminescence data indicate that first by-products after partial ozonation (5-30min) of OTC were more toxic than the parent compound.     

Feasibility of using microalgal biomass cultured in domestic wastewater for the removal of chromium pollutants

The feasibility of obtaining and using the biomass of a microalga, Chlorella miniata, from domestic wastewater (DW) cultures for the removal of chromium(III) [Cr(III)] and chromium(VI) [Cr(VI)] was compared with that from commercial Bristol medium (BM). Results showed that Chlorella miniata cultured in DW under 16-8 hours light-dark cycle [DW(16-8)] had similar growth to that in BM [BM(16-8)], but these two biomass had different biochemical compositions, and the former one had lower carbohydrate and higher protein content. When cultured in domestic wastewater, a higher biomass was obtained under continuous illumination [DW(24-0)], and the cells had higher carbohydrate and lower protein concentrations than that of DW(16-8). The spectra of the Fourier transform infrared spectrometer revealed that the functional groups on the surface of the three kinds of biomass--DW(16-8), DW(24-0), and BM(16-8)--were comparable, except an additional peak at 1731 cm(-1) was found in the biomass cultured in domestic wastewater, which was probably the result of bacterial contamination. Although biochemical differences were found among the three kinds of microalgal biomass, similar biosorption performances to chromium pollutants were recorded, with approximately 75% Cr(III) and 100% Cr(VI) removed at equilibrium in Cr(III) and Cr(VI) experiments, respectively, when dead biomass was used as a biosorbent. Therefore, it is possible to culture Chlorella miniata in domestic wastewater and use the biomass for the removal of chromium pollutants.     

A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model.     

Performance of an immobilized cell biofilter for ammonia removal from contaminated air stream

The performance of a lab scale biofilter packed with biomedia, encapsulated by sodium alginate and polyvinyl alcohol was used for treating ammonia (NH(3)) gas at different loading rates. The metabolic end products during NH(3) oxidation were NH(4)(+), NO(3)(-) and NO(2)(-). It is noteworthy to mention that the immobilized cell biofilter required no separate acclimatization period and showed high removal efficiencies during the start of continuous experiments. The removal efficiency was nearly 100% when ammonia loading was 4.5gm(-3)h(-1) and the maximum elimination capacity achieved in this study was 5.5gNH(3)m(-3)h(-1) at a loading rate of 7.5gm(-3)h(-1). Shock loading studies were carried out to ascertain the response of the immobilized cells to fluctuations in inlet concentration and flow rate. The inlet loading rates were varied between 0.05 and 6gNH(3)m(-3)h(-1) during this phase of operation. The biofilter responded effectively to these shock loading conditions and recovered rapidly within 4-8h. Pressure drop values were consistently less and insignificant. The results from this study indicated that this immobilized cell biofilter could be considered as a potential option to treat NH(3) under steady and transient state operation.     

Protein tyrosine dephosphorylation during copper-induced cell death in rice roots

Early signalling events that control the process of heavy metal-induced cell death are largely unknown in plants. In mammals protein tyrosine phosphorylation plays an important role in the activation of programmed cell death. We thus examined the involvement of tyrosine phosphorylation in Cu-induced rice cell death. This investigation demonstrates that Cu induces cell death and DNA fragmentation in rice root cells. In the presence of Cu, the level of phosphotyrosine accumulation declined in the band of 45 kDa, p45. To analyze the role of tyrosine dephosphorylation for the regulation of Cu-induced cell death more precisely, we increased levels of tyrosine phosphorylation using the protein tyrosine phosphatase inhibitor, sodium orthovanadate (Na(3)VO(4)). Treatment of rice roots with Na(3)VO(4) blocked Cu-induced cell death and protein tyrosine dephosphorylation. In addition, the antioxidant GSH and the calcium chelator EGTA significantly abolished Cu-induced cell death and protein tyrosine dephosphorylation. These results provide evidence that dephosphorylation of a tyrosine-phosphorylated protein, p45, is an important step in the Cu-triggered signalling transduction pathway.     

Whole-mount in situ TUNEL method revealed ectopic pattern of apoptosis in cadmium treated naupliar larvae of barnacle (Balanus amphitrite Darwin)

The effect of cadmium on stage II naupliar larvae of barnacle (Balanus amphitrite Darwin) was investigated. Barnacle larvae were exposed to 0-15 microM CdCl(2) for 24 h. Apoptotic cells were stained by the terminal deoxyribonucleotidyl transferase mediated dUTP nick end labelling (TUNEL) method. Incidence of apoptosis, as measured by numbers of animals with ectopic pattern of apoptosis as well as numbers of apoptotic cells per animal, was assessed using confocal microscopy. An increase in incidence of apoptosis was observed in the experimental animals with an increase in cadmium concentration. Mortality increased, and motility decreased, when barnacle larvae were exposed to an increasing concentration of cadmium. The relationship between the occurrence of apoptosis and swimming behaviour was investigated in larvae exposed to 10 microM CdCl(2). Significant increases in apoptosis were detected in the non-motile and dead nauplii. This study suggested that whole-mount in situ TUNEL method may be used to study increased occurrence of apoptotic cells in crustacean larvae.     

Microsomal monooxygenase activity in Tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) exposed to a bleached kraft mill effluent using different exposure systems.

Bleached kraft pulp and paper mill effluents (BKMEs) are known to have adverse effects on aquatic organisms. One of the effects of BKMEs is its ability to induce cytochrome P4501A activity in exposed fish. 7-Ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity is the most common biomarker used to measure the mixed-function monooxygenase activity. In this study, Tilapia were exposed to BKMEs using different exposure systems and their hepatic EROD activity, as well as liver/somatic index (LSI), were determined. In the Phase I study, Tilapia treated with betaNF and a whole (100%) BKME using a static, non-renewal system exhibited statistically significant EROD induction, but LSI values were not altered. In the Phase II study, fish were either caged in the mill's fishpond with the whole effluent passing through or cultured in tanks receiving 100% of the BKME continuously using a flow-through system in the laboratory. Their EROD activities were then compared with the non-exposed fish (control). The EROD activities in both groups of fish were elevated significantly with the greatest induction being observed in the field-exposed group. The LSI values in all of the field-exposed fish were significantly greater than the control Tilapia. The EROD assay was sensitive in detecting biological changes in fish exposed to the BKME. Further studies are warranted to better understand the impacts of BKMEs on aquatic organisms in Taiwan.     

Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China’s grain production

The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.