Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.     

Trampling impact on vegetation of embryonic and stabilised sand dunes in Montenegro

Trampling is one of the human activities that are harmful for plant species and communities of sand dune ecosystems. The aim of this study was to compare the vegetation of embryonic and shifting Ammophila sand dunes with and without fencing to limit trampling. Fenced sand dunes appeared to be richer in species but differences were more prominent in embryonic sand dunes. Some species (Cakile maritima, Pancratium maritimum) were missing on trampled embryonic dunes. The positive impact of trampling exclusion on embryonic sand dunes was indicated by a lowered slope in a Whittaker graph as well as by rarefaction curves that showed higher species richness on the lower slope. Changes in the vegetation of more stabilised shifting Ammophila sand dunes due to trampling are not evident, although species composition is also impoverished. Fencing of parts of sand dunes proved to be an effective measure for vegetation conservation. In addition to physical exclusion of visitors, fences can also have symbolic value for raising public awareness.     

Distribution of heavy elements in urban and rural surface soils: the Novi Sad city and the surrounding settlements, Serbia

Concentrations of ten heavy elements (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn), as well as the pH values, organic matter contents, and electrical conductivities were measured in the surface soil samples collected from 21 sites of urban areas in the city of Novi Sad, the second largest city in Serbia, its suburban settlement and the nearby villages. Range of the heavy element concentrations was from 0.16 mg/kg (for Hg) to 18,994 mg/kg (for Fe). Significantly higher Hg and Mn concentrations were observed in subgroups with rural and market garden samples in comparison to the subgroups with urban and grassland samples, respectively, while the contents of Pb found in the grasslands subgroup were significantly higher than in the subgroup with market garden soils. Only one sample of urban soil exceeded the maximum permissible value for Zn set by the relevant Serbian legislation. According to the Dutch soil quality standard, the Cd and Co concentrations in majority of the examined soils were higher than the target values for unpolluted soil. The content of Hg was above the target value in 52% of the samples, most of them belonging to the subgroup of market garden soils. The results for the Novi Sad city area were compared to the relevant data available for other cities in the Western Balkan Countries. Principal component analysis of data revealed seven outlying samples, while the rest of the analyzed samples were grouped together indicating similar heavy element patterns most probably due to mixed emission sources.     

Early prenatal diagnosis of genetic microcephaly

We report a new case of prenatal diagnosis of recessive microcephaly by ultrasound examination allowing termination of pregnancy at 25 weeks gestation.     

Uptake and biotransformation of arsenate in the lichen Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl

The uptake and metabolism of arsenate, As(V), as a function of time and concentration were examined in the lichen Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl. Lichen thalli were exposed to As(V) in the form of a solution. Exponential uptake of As(V) from 4 microg mL(-1) As(V) solution was accompanied by constant arsenite, As(III), excretion back into the solution. Arsenate taken up into the lichens from 0, 0.1, 1, 10 microg mL(-1) As(V) solutions was partially transformed into As(III), dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) and (mono)methylarsonic acid (MA). 48 h after exposure, the main arsenic compound in the lichens was DMA in 0.1, As(III) in 1 and As(V) in 10 microg mL(-1) treatment. The proportion of methylated arsenic compounds decreased with increasing arsenate concentration in the exposure solution. These results suggest that at least two types of As(V) detoxification exist in lichens; arsenite excretion and methylation.     

Distribution and fractionation of heavy metals in the Tisa (Tisza) River sediments

Introduction In this work, sediments of the River Tisa (Tisza) are studied to assess their environmental pollution levels for some major heavy metals, as well as to predict the investigated elements’ mobility on the basis of their association type with the substrate. The Tisa River catchments area is a subbasin of the River Danube. Part of this river, 166 km long, belongs to the Serbian province of Vojvodina, before it flows into the Danube. It has been chosen for our investigation, because it has been exposed to intense pollution in the last decades. Materials and Methods The river sediment samples were collected at 32 locations. The proportions of sand, silt and clay fractions were determined. The sequential extraction procedure following a modified Tessier method was applied for speciation of the metal forms in the collected samples. The metal concentrations of Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni, Cu, Cr, Fe and Mn in extracts were determined by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Results and Discussion Granulometric analysis showed that some 50% of the Tisa River sediments were silt and clay, while the rest was sand with quartz, as the main constituent. The average metal content of the surface river sediment samples for every fraction of sequential extraction was presented and discussed in relation to pH, Eh and metal fractionation. The average metal content from the Tisa River sediments, obtained as an average of the metal’s concentration released in all five sequential extraction fractions was compared with: average metal contents of the Tisa River sediments in Hungary, metal content in soils formed on the Tisa River alluvium of Vojvodina, average metal content in soils of Vojvodina, and average metal content in soils of Hungary. An assessment of metal pollution levels in Tisa River sediments was made by comparing mean values for obtained results for the Tisa River sediments with the freshwater sediment’s Quality Guidelines as published by US EPA, Environment Canada and soil standards for Serbia. Conclusion According to US EPA and Canadian Quality Guidelines for freshwater sediments, the concentration of heavy metals in Tisa sediments were: (a) much higher than defined concentrations below which harmful effects on river biota are unlikely to be observed, (b) below defined concentrations above which harmful effects on river biota are likely to be observed. The concentration levels of Pb, Ni, Cu and Cr in Tisa River sediments are safe when compared with Serbian MAQ (Maximum Allowed Quantity) standards for soils, but they are unsafe in the case of Zn and Cd. Recommendations and Outlook The quality of sediments in the Tisa River was on the border line between potentially polluted and polluted. This line could very easily be exceeded since the quality of sediments in the Tisa River in Hungary was already worse than in Serbia. These results indicated the need for further monitoring of heavy metals in that locality.     

Selective removal of heavy metals from metal-bearing wastewater in a cascade line reactor

Goal, Scope and Background This paper is a part of the research work on ‘Integrated treatment of industrial wastes towards prevention of regional water resources contamination — INTREAT’ the project. It addresses the environmental pollution problems associated with solid and liquid waste/effluents produced by sulfide ore mining and metallurgical activities in the Copper Mining and Smelting Complex Bor (RTB-BOR), Serbia. However, since the minimum solubility for the different metals usually found in the polluted water occurs at different pH values and the hydroxide precipitates are amphoteric in nature, selective removal of mixed metals could be achieved as the multiple stage precipitation. For this reason, acid mine water had to be treated in multiple stages in a continuous precipitation system-cascade line reactor. Materials and Methods All experiments were performed using synthetic metal-bearing effluent with chemical a composition similar to the effluent from open pit, Copper Mining and Smelting Complex Bor (RTB-BOR). That effluent is characterized by low pH (1.78) due to the content of sulfuric acid and heavy metals, such as Cu, Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn with concentrations of 76.680, 26.130, 0.113, 11.490, 1.020 mg/dm³, respectively. The cascade line reactor is equipped with the following components: for feeding of effluents, for injection of the precipitation agent, for pH measurements and control, and for removal of the process gases. The precipitation agent was 1M NaOH. In each of the three reactors, a changing of pH and temperature was observed. In order to verify efficiency of heavy metals removal, chemical analyses of samples taken at different pH was done using AES-ICP. Results Consumption of NaOH in reactors was 370 cm³, 40 cm³ and 80 cm³, respectively. Total time of the experiment was 4 h including feeding of the first reactor. The time necessary to achieve the defined pH value was 25 min for the first reactor and 13 min for both second and third reactors. Taking into account the complete process in the cascade line reactor, the difference between maximum and minimum temperature was as low as 6°C. The quantity of solid residue in reactors respectively was 0.62 g, 2.05 g and 3.91 g. In the case of copper, minimum achieved concentration was 0.62 mg/dm³ at pH = 10.4. At pH = 4.50 content of iron has rapidly decreased to < 0.1 mg/dm³ and maintained constant at all higher pH values. That means that precipitation has already ended at pH=4.5 and maximum efficiency of iron removal was 99.53%. The concentration of manganese was minimum at pH value of 11.0. Minimum obtained concentration of Zn was 2.18 mg/dm³ at a pH value of 11. If pH value is higher than 11, Zn can be re-dissolved. The maximum efficiency of Ni removal reached 76.30% at a pH value of 10.4. Discussion Obtained results show that efficiency of copper, iron and manganese removal is very satisfactory (higher than 90%). The obtained efficiency of Zn and Ni removal is lower (72.30% and 76.31%, respectively). The treated effluent met discharge water standard according to The Council Directive 76/464/EEC on pollution caused by certain dangerous substances into the aquatic environment of the Community. Maximum changing of temperature during the whole process was 6°C. Conclusion This technology, which was based on inducing chemical precipitation of heavy metals is viable for selective removal of heavy metals from metal-bearing effluents in three reactor systems in a cascade line. Recommendations and Perspectives The worldwide increasing concern for the environment and guidelines regarding effluent discharge make their treatment necessary for safe discharge in water receivers. In the case where the effluents contain valuable metals, there is also an additional economic interest to recover these metals and to recycle them as secondary raw materials in different production routes. ESS-Submission Editor: PhD Hailong Wang, hailong.wang@ensisjv.com     

226Ra in Tap and Mineral Water and Related Health Risk in the Republic of Croatia

The presence of 226Ra in drinking water may sometimes make important contribution to natural background radiation exposures. The paper describes the study of 226Ra content in drinking water of Croatia: tap water from the public supply system of several major towns and bottled mineral water from two selected mineral water springs. 226Ra was determined by alpha-spectrometric measurement after radiochemical separation. The radiation doses originating from drinking tap water and bottled mineral water were estimated. The annual dose from consumption of bottled mineral water was compared to that received from ingestion of public system tap water. The study showed that 226Ra content for investigated categories of waters is below the levels at which any unacceptable dose due to ingestion would arise.     

Multi-criteria forest road network planning in fire-prone environment: a case study in Serbia

This paper presents a multi-criteria selection of the best forest road network with the aim of achieving effective preventive and timely repressive protection against forest fires. The research was carried out in national park (NP) “Tara” at a site which is under constant threat of fire. Four variants of the forest road network were designed and analyzed against seven criteria, and the best variant was selected using entropy weight coefficients (EWC) method. The importance of these seven criteria was studied by the management of the NP “Tara.” The greatest importance was given to the criteria relating to the cost of construction and maintenance of permanent and temporary roads (47% of the total value of all criteria). The EWC method did not select the variant based on the lowest costs of construction and maintenance as the best option, but the variant whose location was the most suitable for effective defense against forest fires.