SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Fires in Northern Taiga Larch Forests of Central Siberia

The periodicity of fires in larch forests of Evenkia and their relationship with landscape elements have been studied. Cross-sections with “burns” in them caused by past fires have been analyzed in 72 test plots; the fire chronology encompassed the period from the 15th to the 20th century. The between-fire intervals (BFIs) have been calculated by two methods: (I) on the basis of burns alone and (II) on the basis of burns and the start of growth of the new generation of larch after the earliest fire. The BFI depends on local orographic features; it is 86 ± 11 (105 ± 12), 61 ± 8 (73 ± 8), 139 ± 17 (138 ± 18), and 68 ± 14 (70 ± 13) years for northeastern slopes, southwestern slopes, bogs, and flatlands, respectively. The mean BFIs calculated by methods I and II are 82 ± 7 and 95 ± 7 years, respectively. The permafrost horizon rises at a mean rate of 0.3 cm per year after a forest fire. It has been shown that the number of fires regularly peaks at periods of 36 and 82 years. There is also a temporal trend in fire frequency: the mean BFI was approximately 100 years in the 19th century and 65 years in the 20th century.     

发现式学习与新课程改革

布鲁纳在20世纪60年代以结构主义理论为基础领导了美国的课程改革运动.虽然此次课程改革以失败而告终,但是发现式学习方法及其教学方法的提出却受到了广泛的关注.布鲁纳也曾就发现式学习进行了专门的论述.本文从发现式学习法的特点、作用出发来探求我国目前正在进行的第八轮新课程改革,试图为我国新课程改革中学习、教学方法的改革提供一个新的视角.     

Coincidence and Upgrade： A Typical Case Study of Rural Ecotourism Development

At present, internal rural tourism is at the stage of upgrading and renewing, and ecotourism has been considered to be the main direction. This paper discussed the concepts and criteria of rural tourism and ecotourism, analyzed a typical case of Nongke Village of Chengdu City-being considered to be the first rural tourism site in China, went deep into the problems of the contents and criteria of the development of rural ecotourism, and tried to probe into the principles of the development of rural ecotourism both theoretically and practically so as to understand the rules of the development of rural ecotourism .