基于优势隐含周期分析的气象灾害预报

建立了优势因子和优势隐含周期的概念,并提出了多因子逐步回归周期分析的新方法。该方法既能增长预报期,又能充分利用物理因子的重要信息,同时在计算过程中还能挑选出起显著作用的优势因子和优势隐含周期,对预报气象要素的变化趋势效果较好,有一定的实用价值,是气象灾害预报的一条比较有效的途径。     

Modeling of power plant impacts on fish populations

A simulation model was developed for assessing the effects of power plant impacts on fish populations. The model was based on biomass changes in a fish population that divided into 4 life stages: eggs, larvae, juveniles, and adults. Metabolism of fish was included in the model as assimilation and respiration with the effects of temperature push-pull regulation. A cohort technique was used for life stage transfers in the young stages. Compensation was included in terms of density-dependent mortality of the young fish. Power plant impacts on a fish population included entrainment (eggs and larvae) and impingement (juveniles and adults).The model was applied to the gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) population in Pool 14 of the Mississippi River in Illinois and lowa. The nearby nuclear power plant, the Quad-Cities Station, is located on the Illinois side. The simulation of the model with the 1976 field data estimates of the power plant entrainment and impingement predicted a 10 percent potential reduction of the population over 30 years. The simulated reduction of the population with the effects of different river flows showed that the result with the 1976 river flow data gave 1.5 times higher reduction than the results with data of other plant operation years, 1972 through 1975. Because the 1976 data recorded low river flow, the 10 percent reduction quoted above may be high.     

Municipal sludge management: Health aspects of crop uptake of cadmium from sludge-amended soil and recommendations for regulation

Regulations have been proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to promote the proper management of sludge disposal on croplands. The application of municipal sludge to croplands raises serious questions concerning the increase in dietary levels of metals resulting from metal uptake by crops. A model is presented that affords a quantitative estimate of the dietary increase of metals when foods are derived from sludge-amended soil. If a diet or part of a diet is derived completely from sludge-amended soil, it is likely to be excessive in cadmium and pose a clear health hazard. Recommendations designed to reduce the potential health threat of excessive metals in the diet are presented.     

RIVER RECREATION: PUBLIC ACCESS VS. RIPARIAN RIGHTS1

ABSTRACT: The issues involved in the conflict between the rights of the public and those of riparian landowners are examined by reviewing the public access situation with regard to inland streams in the State of Virginia. Consideration is given to the legal framework defining access rights and to the attitudes of riparian landowners regarding the access question. Existing provisions of law suggest only limited recognition of public rights, but this law is incompletely developed. A considerably broader concept of public rights could be developed within the existing framework due to the existence of unresolved questions. The analysis of landowner attitudes is based on a survey of a sample of riparian owners chosen from throughout the state. The questionnaire used in the survey contained 123 questions in a variety of areas, including landowners' perceptions of public rights, problems encountered as the result of recreational water use, attitudes toward state designation and protection of scenic rivers, and the acceptability of alternatives for increasing public access. Although the survey results indicate substantial acceptance of the concept of public use, the landowners expressed concern over governmental control of land use and did not indicate a generally acceptable means for increasing public use.     

THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY METALS IN BOTTOM SEDIMENTS OF THE SADDLE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: A three-year study has been conducted on a 4.6 mile stretch of the Saddle River near Lodi, New Jersey. The primary objectives of this investigation were (1) to provide baseline information on the concentration and distribution of heavy metals in bottom sediments of the Saddle River; (2) to qualitatively evaluate which parameters affect this distribution; and (3) to determine the effect of urbanization on the concentration and distribution of these materials. Significant enrichments of several heavy metals were observed in bottom sediments of the lower Saddle River near Lodi, New Jersey, as compared to the upper Saddle River. Attempts to correlate metal concentrations in bottom sediments with chemical-oxygen demand were not successful in demonstrating a relationship between these two factors. Metal concentrations were found to be strongly dependent upon particle size. In general, metal concentrations in bottom sediments increased with decreasing partical diameter. However, metals enrichment was observed to be considerably greater in the larger sediment fractions studied (>420μ) than the smaller sediment fractions as one proceeded downstream through the urban area. Since the larger sediment fractions are least effected by scour and transport they may best reflect the effect of urbanization on the distribution of heavy metals over an extended period of time at a given location.     

Managing bog environments for recreational experiences

Bogs are of interest to outdoor recreationists, but little information exists concerning how recreation resource managers might manage these areas to enhance visitor benefits. This study evaluates bog visitor characteristics and experiences, visual preferences, and reasons for visiting. Implications for recreational resource management of bogs include the location and design of boardwalk trails and management of understory vegetation to meet the visual preferences and motives of bog visitors.     

A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.