Estimation bias under model selection for distance sampling detection functions

Many simulation studies have examined the properties of distance sampling estimators of wildlife population size. When assumptions hold, if distances are generated from a detection model and fitted using the same model, they are known to perform well. However, in practice, the true model is unknown. Therefore, standard practice includes model selection, typically using model comparison tools like Akaike Information Criterion. Here we examine the performance of standard distance sampling estimators under model selection. We compare line and point transect estimators with distances simulated from two detection functions, hazard-rate and exponential power series (EPS), over a range of sample sizes. To mimic the real-world context where the true model may not be part of the candidate set, EPS models were not included as candidates, except for the half-normal parameterization. We found median bias depended on sample size (being asymptotically unbiased) and on the form of the true detection function: negative bias (up to 15% for line transects and 30% for point transects) when the shoulder of maximum detectability was narrow, and positive bias (up to 10% for line transects and 15% for point transects) when it was wide. Generating unbiased simulations requires careful choice of detection function or very large datasets. Practitioners should collect data that result in detection functions with a shoulder similar to a half-normal and use the monotonicity constraint. Narrow-shouldered detection functions can be avoided through good field procedures and those with wide shoulder are unlikely to occur, due to heterogeneity in detectability.     

Observations and analytical modeling of freshwater and rainwater lenses in coastal dune systems

Observations are reported on (i) groundwater recharge rates under various types of vegetation as measured with megalysimeters in the dunes, (ii) freshwater lenses along the Dutch North Sea coast in the early 1900s, and (iii) rainwater lenses that develop on top of laterally migrating, artificially recharged riverwater. Subsequently analytical methods are presented to estimate annual natural groundwater recharge as function of rainfall and vegetation, and to calculate the size, shape and transition zone of freshwater lenses on saline groundwater and rainwater lenses on infiltrated riverwater. An empirical correction factor, based on the hydraulic resistance of an aquitard within the freshwater lens, is proposed to account for the frequently observed reduction of the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio of 40. This factor raises the groundwater table, reduces the depth of the fresh/salt interface and increases the lens formation time. The suite of methods offers a tool box for knowledge based water management of dune systems, by rapidly predicting: (i) more or less autonomous changes due to sealevel rise, climate change and vegetation development; and (ii) the potential (side) effects of interventions. Knowing what happened or will happen to the fresh water lens or a rainwater lens is important, because changes impact on important natural habitat parameters such as salinity, depth to groundwater table, decalcification rate (and thus on pH, Ca/Al, PO₄, NH₄) and nutrient availability, and on drinking water supply. The analytical models are applied to predict effects of sealevel rise, coastal progradation, vegetation changes, and increased temperature of coastal air and river water to be infiltrated.     

Climate change impacts on a large-scale erosion coast of Hai Hau district,Vietnam and the adaptation

Among the effects of global warming, sea level rise (SLR) and severe typhoons pose the greatest threat to the stability of human settlements along coastlines. Therefore, countermeasures must be developed to mitigate the influences of strong typhoons and persistent SLR for coastal protection. This study assesses climate change impacts on coastal erosion, especially in two projected SLR scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The results show that SLR and severe typhoons lead to the increase of coastal erosion, beach lowering and scour. Moreover, as in projected SLR scenarios, average waves in high tide can cause severe soil erosion at inner slopes and lead to dyke failure by 2060. The paper highlights the need for additional countermeasures to protect the coast of Hai Hau district against SLR and severe typhoons. Among the alternatives available for countering these threats, applying soil stabilization and soil improvement combined with geosynthetics are promising strategies for coastal structures. Hybrid structures can be used with earth reinforcement and soil improvement. Additionally, the paper emphasizes the importance of multiple protective adaptations, including geosynthetics and ecological engineering measures against climate change-induced severe erosion on the coast of Hai Hau district.     

Are anthropogenic factors affecting nesting habitat of sea turtles? The case of Kanzul beach,Riviera Maya-Tulum (Mexico)

Marine coast modification and human pressure affects many species, including sea turtles. In order to study nine anthropogenic impacts that might affect nesting selection of females, incubation and hatching survival of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas), building structures were identified along a 5.2 km beach in Kanzul (Mexico). A high number of hotels and houses (88; 818 rooms), with an average density of 16.6 buildings per kilometer were found. These buildings form a barrier which prevents reaching the beach from inland, resulting in habitat fragmentation. Main pressures were detected during nesting selection (14.19% of turtle nesting attempts interrupted), and low impact were found during incubation (0.77%) and hatching (4.7%). There were three impacts defined as high: beach furniture that blocks out the movement of hatchlings or females, direct pressure by tourists, and artificial beachfront lighting that can potentially mislead hatchlings or females. High impacted areas showed lowest values in nesting selection and hatching success. Based on our results, we suggest management strategies to need to be implemented to reduce human pressure and to avoid nesting habitat loss of loggerhead and green turtle in Kanzul, Mexico.     

Restoration and sequestration of carbon and nitrogen in the degraded northern coastal area in Nile Delta,Egypt for climate change mitigation

Most of coastal area in Nile Delta, Egypt, is salt-affected soils and have low carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) inputs as a result of declining vegetation growth and low net primary production. Therefore, this study amid to compare between C and N pools in degraded (uncultivated and salt-affected soil) and restored (cultivated and reclaimed 20 years ago) locations in North Nile Delta. and to examine the impact of cultivation on sequestering C and N pools in this area as one of the most important methods for mitigating climate change impacts. C and N pools increased significantly in surface soil from 2.99 and 0.43 Mgh^?1 in uncultivated sites to 19.26 and 1.66 Mgh^?1 in cultivated ones as salinity was reduced and net primary production was increased due to leaching and reclamation. Particulate (associated with sand) and nonparticulate (associated with clay +silt) soil organic C or N was significantly higher cultivated sites. In addition, nonparticulate organic C or N was lower than particulate part indicating and supporting the strong relationship between organic matter and clay. The sequestration rate (in approximately 1 m profile) was 1.69 and 0.14 Mgh^?1 yr.^?1 C and N pools respectively. Although the cultivation is leading to loss of organic matter in some areas; C and N in this coastal area are partially restored and stored. Therefore, restoration and appropriate management practices will lead to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change in this area.     

Aboveground biomass and carbon stock are related with soil humidity in a mangrove at the Piraquê-Açu River,Southeastern Brazil

In Brazil, few studies have been conducted about the assimilation of carbon and biomass accumulation in mangroves despite its great role as a carbon sink. In this sense, this study aimed to estimate the aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon stocked by mangrove species in a stretch along the Piraquê-Açu River in southeastern Brazil, and to verify their relation with some soil parameters. For such, the height and diameter of all trees inside six plots of 100 m² were measured and used to quantify AGB through an allometric equation, and soil samples were collected to calculate granulometry, humidity, time of infiltration and permeability. Multiple regressions were used to identify relations between AGB and soil parameters. A total of 296 trees were found in the area and the AGB and carbon assimilated were 2.92 t ha^?1 and 1.46 t ha^?1, respectively. Laguncularia racemosa was the most abundant species and contributed with 61% of these values. Only a positive relation between AGB/carbon of L. racemosa and soil humidity was found, probably due to the substrate characteristics which contain a large concentration of silt/clay, and may store more water and do not yet provide firmness to the roots. By comparison, this mangrove had a low amount of AGB and carbon stocked and has yet to develop structurally. Along with other ecological functions and its associated ecosystem services such as supplying food for the local community, these features highlight the importance to conserve the studied mangrove and the interlinked coastal ecosystems.     

Spatiotemporal changes and fragmentation of mangroves and its effects on fish diversity in Ca Mau Province (Vietnam)

Mangroves are important economically and ecologically, however mangrove cover has declined dramatically leading to habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss. Information on mangrove cover change, fragmentation and impacts on fish diversity is poorly understood. The aims of this study are to detect spatiotemporal changes and mangrove status, examine fragmentation changes and associated effects on fish diversity. Landsat images in1989, 2000, and 2013 were used to classify mangrove cover in Ca Mau Province (Vietnam) and validated against high resolution Pleiades imagery. Fragmentation changes in mangrove cover were examined using series of landscape metrics evaluated against fish diversity indices (Simpson’s index, Jaccard’s coefficient and relative abundance). Results show that mangrove cover has declined 24.6% in the province. Currently, high and moderately dense mangroves distribute in southern half of the region while the low density mangroves occurs in the northern half. Over the 24 year study periods, the number of patches and edge density has increased 58% and 53.9%, respectively, while the mean patch size and mean patch edge has decreased 52.3% and 26.6%. Fish diversity in the more highly fragmented mangrove area was 1.78 times lower than the less fragmented mangrove. The study illustrates the applicability of using Landsat satellite imagery for use in mangrove fragmentation studies as well as the impact of fragmentation.     

Experimental assessment of characteristic turbulent scales in two-phase flow of hydraulic jump: from bottom to free surface

A hydraulic jump is a turbulent shear flow with a free-surface roller. The turbulent flow pattern is characterised by the development of instantaneous three-dimensional turbulent structures throughout the air–water column up to the free surface. The length and time scales of the turbulent structures are key information to describe the turbulent processes, which is of significant importance for the improvement of numerical models and physical measurement techniques. However, few physical data are available so far due to the complexity of the measurement. This paper presents an investigation of a series of characteristic turbulent scales for hydraulic jumps, covering the length and time scales of turbulent flow structures in bubbly flow, on free surface and at the impingement point. The bubbly-flow turbulent scales are obtained for Fr = 7.5 with 3.4 × 10⁴ < Re < 1.4 × 10⁵ in both longitudinal and transverse directions, and are compared with the free-surface scales. The results highlight three-dimensional flow patterns with anisotropic turbulence field. The turbulent structures are observed with different length and time scales respectively in the shear flow region and free-surface recirculation region. The bubbly structures next to the roller surface and the free-surface fluctuation structures show comparable length and time scales, both larger than the scales of vortical structures in the shear flow and smaller than the scales of impingement perimeter at the jump toe. A decomposition of physical signals indicates that the large turbulent scales are related to the unsteady motion of the flow in the upper part of the roller, while the high-frequency velocity turbulence dominates in the lower part of the roller. Scale effects cannot be ignored for Reynolds number smaller than 4 × 10⁴, mainly linked to the formation of large eddies in the shear layer. The present study provides a comprehensive assessment of turbulent scales in hydraulic jump, including the analyses of first data set of longitudinal bubbly-flow integral scales and transverse jump toe perimeter integral scales.     

Modeling and data assessment of longitudinal salinity in a low-gradient estuarine river

Continuous data of vertical-profile salinity were analyzed for four stations located successively upriver in a macrotidal estuary, the lower St. Johns River (Northeast Florida, USA). The data analysis confirmed well-mixed salinity conditions in the river with at most 1.3 ppt of vertical variability at Dames Point (river km 20), where the main variations of salinity are along the longitudinal axis of the river. Given the well-mixed salinity conditions and dominant horizontal structure of salinity variations in the river, we present and apply a barotropic, two-dimensional modeling approach for hydrodynamic-salinity transport simulation in the lower St. Johns River. When properly forced by offshore surge, high-resolution wind fields and freshwater river inflows, the model replicated the salinity measurements remarkably well, including the separation into tidal and sub-tidal components. The data and model results show that, at times, offshore winds and surge can be more influential on longitudinal salinity variations than local winds over the river. We demonstrate the importance of using proper boundary conditions to force the model relative to the minimal sensitivity of the model to parameter adjustment of horizontal mixing and uncertainty-based perturbation of wind and inflow forcings.     

Direct measurements of the drag force over aligned arrays of cubes exposed to boundary-layer flows

Wind tunnel measurements of the total drag force for aligned arrays of cubes exposed to two different boundary-layer flows at three flow velocities are discussed. The drag force for eight different building packing densities λ _p (from 0.028 to 1) is measured with a standard load cell generating a novel dataset. Different λ _p are reproduced by increasing the number of buildings on the same lot area; this represents a real situation that an urban planner is faced with when a lot area of a given (fixed) size is allocated to the development of new built areas. It is assumed that the surrounding terrain is uniform and there is a transition from a given roughness (smooth) to a new roughness (rough). The approaching flow will adjust itself over the new surface within a distance that in general may be larger than the horizontal length covered by the array. We investigate the region where the flow adjustment occurs. The wide range of packing densities allowed us to analyse in detail the evolution of the drag force. The drag force increases with increasing packing densities until it reaches a maximum at an intermediate packing density (λ _p  = 0.25 in our case) followed by a slight decrease at larger packing densities. The value of the drag force depends on the flow adjustment along the array which is evaluated by introducing the parameter “drag area” to retrieve information about the drag distribution at different λ _p . Results clearly suggest a change of the distribution of the drag force, which is found to be relatively uniform at low packing densities, while most of the force acts on first rows of the arrays at large packing densities. The drag area constitutes the basis for the formulation of a new adjustment length scale defined as the ratio between the volume of the air within the array and the drag area. The proposed adjustment length scale automatically takes into account the change in drag distribution along the array for a better parameterization of urban effects in dispersion models.