对SARS疫情预测与控制的数学模型研究——一种基于一般流传病模型的改进方法

笔者从一个简单的传染病数学模型着手 ,在考虑了SARS病毒的规律和具体控制方法的影响因素后 ,对一般传染病疫情的确定型预测模型进行改进 ,并引入 ρ、α及 β等随机系数 ,从疫情控制前、控制后、控后改进来建立对疫情预测和控制的数学模型 ,从而更加精确地刻画出SARS的发展和传播规律、人们的控制方法与其控制效果之间的关系 ,给出了模型的算法 ,并对其内涵及与疫情控制的关系给以评述。最后 ,用某地区实际数据验证了控后改进型数学模型与疫情发展规律符合 ,为定量研究这类传染病提供了简明实用的定量分析方法 ,具有一定的现实意义。     

棉田生态系统中钾元素的施用效益研究

新疆滴灌棉花施用钾肥,灰漠土平均增产9 1%,草甸土平均增产6 6%。在适宜的氮磷肥条件下,灰漠土滴灌棉花最佳施钾量为94 5kg/hm2;草甸土滴灌棉花最佳施钾量为64 5kg/hm2。每公顷钾肥用量增加1kg,灰漠土棉株体内全钾含量提高0 006029%;草甸土棉株提高0 004457%。钾肥施用方法以基施配合滴施最佳。     

SARS与灾变心理初探

本文初步讨论了SARS发生前、发生时和发生后,社会个体和社会群体的不同心理变化过程,以及各种不同心理活动产生的原因,希冀能从中找出人们在灾变面前的特殊心理过程,为政府的防灾救灾和正确决策提供服务.     

垃圾焚烧烟气中二(噁)英零排放技术实践

介绍了绍兴新民热电有限公司用煤和垃圾混烧循环流化床技术处理城市生活垃圾，焚烧烟气经活性炭吸附、半干法和布袋除尘器净化工艺处理后，烟气中二噁英接近零排放。     

超高强度钻杆低温断裂性能及裂纹扩展特征研究

超高强度钻杆在冬季低温环境下容易发生脆性断裂事故,为了从断裂力学角度揭示其冷脆现象的本质,采用ZBC2302-D型示波冲击试验机,获得了不同温度下超高强度钢在冲击断裂过程中的力-位移曲线,并对比分析了冲击功、起裂功和裂纹扩展功之间的变化关系。采用国家标准GB 4161—2007中的计算公式,计算了冲击试样的裂纹扩展量Δa和阻抗应力强度因子K_R;同时,引入K_R阻力曲线,得到超高强度钻杆在不同温度下的剩余强度图。结果表明,当冲击试样开始出现裂纹时,随温度降低,钻杆的初始起裂应力有所增加,出现硬化现象。当钻杆出现一定长度的裂纹时,随温度降低,阻抗应力强度因子越来越小,而且降低速度越来越快,剩余强度也表现出相同的变化趋势。随温度降低,材料抵抗裂纹扩展的能力逐渐下降,表明钻杆在低温下更容易断裂。     

航空器场内失事应急演练评估指标体系与评估方法研究

针对目前我国民用运输机场航空器场内失事应急救援综合演练缺乏有效评估体系的现状，通过对演练过程进行系统分析，构建航空器场内失事应急救援演练评估指标体系，涵盖消防、医疗、公安、媒体应对、运行指挥中心、地服、飞行区7个组织部门的2级指标。结合航空器场内失事救援的业务特点以及指标体系内在逻辑，设计相应的评估方法，对开展的航空器场内失事应急演练进行评估；最后，以国内2个机场的相关应急演练过程为典型示例，进行应用分析。研究结果表明:构建的演练评估指标体系及评估方法能较好地应用于实际应急演练过程，进而在演练评估结果和建议的基础上，实现应急演练的持续改进。     

Determination of 27 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in water: The benefit of isotope dilution

• Isotope dilution method was developed for the determination of 27 PPCPs in water. • The established method was successfully applied to different types of water samples. • The correction effect of corresponding 27 ILSs over 70 d was investigated. • Benefit of isotopic dilution method was illustrated for three examples. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are a unique group of emerging and non-persistent contaminants. In this study, 27 PPCPs in various water samples were extracted by solid phase extraction (SPE), and determined by isotope dilution method using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem triple quadruple mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS). A total of 27 isotopically labeled standards (ILSs) were applied to correct the concentration of PPCPs in spiked ultrapure water, drinking water, river, effluent and influent sewage. The corrected recoveries were 73%–122% with the relative standard deviation (RSD)<16%, except for acetaminophen. The matrix effect for all kinds of water samples was<22% and the method quantitation limits (MQLs) were 0.45–8.6 ng/L. The developed method was successfully applied on environmental water samples. The SPE extracts of spiked ultrapure water, drinking water, river and wastewater effluent were stored for 70 days, and the ILSs-corrected recoveries of 27 PPCPs were obtained to evaluate the correction ability of ILSs in the presence of variety interferences. The recoveries of 27 PPCPs over 70 days were within the scope of 72%–140% with the recovery variation<37% in all cases. The isotope dilution method seems to be of benefit when the extract has to be stored for long time before the instrument analysis.     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

铜绿微囊藻吸附废水中镍离子的研究

生物吸附法治理重金属废水为目前的一个研究热点。本文以铜绿微囊藻为研究对象,考察铜绿微囊藻藻液和藻粉对重金属镍离子的吸附效果。原子吸收光谱结果表明:藻液和藻粉的去除率分别为23.6%和92%,藻粉相比于藻液有更好的处理效果。傅里叶红外光谱(FTIR)及扫描电镜(SEM)结果表明:吸附重金属后,两者的峰型大致一致,藻粉和藻液的空间结构均发生了明显的改变。上述研究结果证明铜绿微囊藻可以作为一种去除重金属的生物吸附剂,为后续藻类治理重金属污染奠定了理论基础。     

华北地区乡村站点(曲周)夏季PM2.5中二次无机组分的生成机制与来源解析

利用大气PM2.5水溶性组分及其气态前体物在线测量系统(GAC-IC)于2014年6月9日~7月11日对华北地区乡村站点曲周大气PM2.5中水溶性组分及其气态前体物进行了在线测量,分析了PM2.5中水溶性组分与气态前体物日变化规律及其相互作用,探讨了当地细颗粒物的气粒转化机制并分析了其来源.结果表明夏季曲周大气PM2.5中水溶性无机离子与相关气态前体物的浓度呈现明显的日变化规律.观测期间,PM2.5中SO2-4、NH+4和NO-3的平均浓度分别是26.28、18.08和16.36μg·m-3,是PM2.5中最主要的水溶性无机离子,约占PM2.5质量浓度的76.23%;气态前体物中,NH3浓度明显偏高、平均值为44.85μg·m-3,主要来源于当地的农业活动排放;硫氧化率(SOR)和氮氧化率(NOR)平均值分别是0.60和0.30,表现出明显的二次污染特征.经相关性分析发现:曲周大气PM2.5中NH+4与NO-3、SO2-4有良好的相关性,且表现为富氨状态,NH+4以(NH4)2SO4形式存在,NO-3的生成主要受HNO3的限制.对NH4NO3平衡进行研究发现:与夜间相反,白天曲周大气环境不利于NH4NO3生成和保持.结果也表明,二次转化是曲周夏季细颗粒物的主要来源,堆肥与农田释放的NH3是导致高浓度二次无机颗粒物(SNA)的重要因素.