The safety barometer: How safe is my plant today? Is instantaneously measuring safety level utopia or realizable?

During the last decade, serious accidents have continued to occur in the process industry. Apparently the scenarios of various undesired events leading to those accidents are still not sufficiently controlled. The key question is how potentially hazardous situations develop, what processes form the basis for this development, and how to control them? Safety level is not static but depends on many risk factors that change in presence and intensity over location and time. Safety level is dependent not only on technical process parameters that have immediate effects on the ‘frequency’ or probability of catastrophic consequences, but also depends on equipment integrity degradation, operational and management quality, attitudes, and cultural processes which may change over a prolonged time. The time and human interaction aspects make dynamic risk assessment complex. This paper will outline a conceptual approach using in addition to the regular process parameter signals received, also weak and slowly changing signals from various safety indicators, enabling to keep track of the risk factors. In theory this could lead to obtaining an instantaneous safety level ‘measure’ making possible forecast alarming for an imminent event to occur. Such concept could be regarded as a ‘writing’ safety barometer, or barograph. However, there are quite a number of problems to be solved which in the paper will be discussed.     

Maximizing Returns from Payments for Water‐Based Ecosystem Services: Incorporating Externality Effects of Land Management

Given the expansion of payments for water‐based ecosystem services (PWES) worldwide, two relevant issues are as follows: (1) determination of efficient allocations of payments among land managers, and (2) how this might change when paying one manager to implement a best management practice (BMP) to enhance an ecosystem service impacts the cost‐effectiveness of BMPs considered by other land managers not currently involved in PWES. Such externalities may be negative if diminishing returns dominate, or positive if mechanisms such as “social diffusion” dominate. We analyze how a planner should optimally allocate payments, depending on whether the expected externalities are negligible, negative, or positive. We employ (1) an optimal control model to gain insights on the problem’s dynamics, and (2) stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal funding strategies using a specific application. The study contributes to the literature by identifying dynamically optimal PWES payment patterns, and illustrates how they should change when one accounts for externalities induced by the program. Because such impacts have not been addressed previously in a rigorous way, this treatment provides useful value added for PWES design and implementation.     

Variation in Emotion and Cognition Among Fishes

Increasing public concern for the welfare of fish species that human beings use and exploit has highlighted the need for better understanding of the cognitive status of fish and of their ability to experience negative emotions such as pain and fear. Moreover, studying emotion and cognition in fish species broadens our scientific understanding of how emotion and cognition are represented in the central nervous system and what kind of role they play in the organization of behavior. For instance, on a macro neuro-architecture level the brains of fish species look dramatically different from those of mammals, while such a dramatic difference does not (always) occur at the level of emotion- and cognition-related behavior. Here, therefore, we discuss the evidence of emotion and cognition in fish species related to underlying neuro-architecture and the role that emotion and cognition play in the organization of behavior. To do so we use a framework encompassing a number of steps allowing a systematic approach to these issues. Emotion and cognition confer on human and non-human animals the capacity to compliment and/or override immediate reflexes to stimuli and so allow a large degree of flexibility in behavior. Systematic research on behavior that in mammals is indicative of emotion and cognition has been conducted in only a few fish species. The data thus far indicate that in these species brain-behavior relationships are not fundamentally different from those observed in mammals. Furthermore, data from other studies show evidence that behavior patterns related to emotion and cognition vary between fish species as well within fish species, related to sex and life history stage for example. From a welfare perspective, knowledge of such variability will potentially help us to design optimal living conditions for fish species kept by humans.     

Meeting Heterogeneity in Consumer Demand for Animal Welfare: A Reflection on Existing Knowledge and Implications for the Meat Sector

The legitimacy of the dominant intensive meat production system with respect to the issue of animal welfare is increasingly being questioned by stakeholders across the meat supply chain. The current meat supply is highly undifferentiated, catering only for the extremes of morality concerns (i.e., conventional vs. organic meat products). However, a latent need for compromise products has been identified. That is, consumer differences exist regarding the trade-offs they make between different aspects associated with meat consumption. The heterogeneity in consumer demand could function as a starting point for market segmentation, targeting and positioning regarding animal welfare concepts that are differentiated in terms of animal welfare and price levels. Despite this, stakeholders in the meat supply chain seem to be trapped in the dominant business model focused on low cost prices. This paper aims to identify conflicting interests that stakeholders in the meat supply chain experience in order to increase understanding of why heterogeneous consumer preferences are not met by a more differentiated supply of meat products produced at different levels of animal welfare standards. In addition, characteristics of the supply chain that contribute to the existence of high exit barriers and difficulty to shift to more animal-friendly production systems are identified. Following the analysis of conflicting interests among stakeholders and factors that contribute to difficulty to transform the existing dominant regime, different routes are discussed that may help and motivate stakeholders to overcome these barriers and stimulate the creation of new markets.     

Contrasting stories on overcoming governance challenges: the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands

The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) has provided the European Member States with a range of interacting governance challenges. This article studies three of these (the need for new administrative arrangements, public participation, and the enforced strict time frame). It questions how these interacting governance challenges were addressed in implementing the WFD in the Netherlands – a particularly interesting country since the European Commission assesses its implementation process in relatively positive terms, while an in-depth study reported on in this article tells a contrasting story. Based on this study, the article concludes that especially the interaction effects between the governance challenges may help us to better understand the outcome of the WFD-implementation process, and to provide more suitable advice as to how to improve the implementation process in future rounds.     

Y chromosome detection by Real Time PCR and pyrophosphorolysis-activated polymerisation using free fetal DNA isolated from maternal plasma

Objectives To validate the use of Real Time PCR, a widely used technique that can detect very low levels of Y chromosomal sequence, and to assess the use of a highly sensitive PCR technique, pyrophosphorolysis-activated polymerisation (PAP), for fetal sex determination using free fetal DNA (ffDNA). Methods The fetal sex was determined by Real Time PCR in 58 pregnancies using ffDNA isolated from maternal plasma. In parallel with the Real Time PCR experiments, the presence of Y chromosome sequence was also determined using PAP on 54 isolated ffDNA samples. Results Both techniques detected Y chromosome sequence at very low levels with 98% specificity and 100% sensitivity (Real Time n = 44, PAP n = 54). Furthermore, the PAP technique was shown to be more robust than the Real Time PCR as none of the samples tested failed to meet the acceptance criteria. Combining the two techniques for male fetal sex detection from maternal blood plasma increases the sensitivity and specificity to 100% in this series. Conclusions This study shows that both Real Time PCR and PAP can be used for Y chromosome detection on ffDNA. Furthermore, by using PAP in combination with Real Time PCR more reliable early prenatal sexing can be performed using ffDNA. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.