假如地球上没有人类

假如地球上没有人类据《新科学家》报道,毋庸置疑,人类是地球有史以来最具统治力的生物。仅仅数千年的时间,城市、农田和牧场就侵占了地球陆地超过1／3的面积。据估计,人类现在霸占了地球40％的生产力。人类的连番冲击让地球变得满目疮痍:草原变为耕地,森林夷为平地,地下蓄水层干枯;而核能废料、化学污染、入侵物种、生物灭绝及气候变暖都是人类活动造成的直接恶果。如果可能的话,与人类分享地球的其它生物会毫不犹豫地把我们“踢出”地球。现在,假设它们如愿以偿,地球上65亿人明天一夜之间从地球上消失,被送到遥远的星系接受再教育,那么,地球将会发生怎样的变化?     

CO2 Capture and Storage with Leakage in an Energy-Climate Model

Geological CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is among the main near-term contenders for addressing the problem of global climate change. Even in a baseline scenario, with no comprehensive international climate policy, a moderate level of CCS technology is expected to be deployed, given the economic benefits associated with enhanced oil and gas recovery. With stringent climate change control, CCS technologies will probably be installed on an industrial scale. Geologically stored CO₂, however, may leak back to the atmosphere, which could render CCS ineffective as climate change reduction option. This article presents a long-term energy scenario study for Europe, in which we assess the significance for climate policy making of leakage of CO₂ artificially stored in underground geological formations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed for the CO₂ leakage rate with the bottom-up energy systems model MARKAL, enriched for this purpose with a large set of CO₂ capture technologies (in the power sector, industry, and for the production of hydrogen) and storage options (among which enhanced oil and gas recovery, enhanced coal bed methane recovery, depleted fossil fuel fields, and aquifers). Through a series of model runs, we confirm that a leakage rate of 0.1%/year seems acceptable for CCS to constitute a meaningful climate change mitigation option, whereas one of 1%/year is not. CCS is essentially no option to achieve CO₂ emission reductions when the leakage rate is as high as 1%/year, so more reductions need to be achieved through the use of renewables or nuclear power, or in sectors like industry and transport. We calculate that under strict climate control policy, the cumulative captured and geologically stored CO₂ by 2100 in the electricity sector, when the leakage rate is 0.1%/year, amounts to about 45,000 MtCO₂. Only a little over 10,000 MtCO₂ cumulative power-generation-related emissions are captured and stored underground by the end of the century when the leakage rate is 1%/year. Overall marginal CO₂ abatement costs increase from a few €/tCO₂ today to well over 150 €/tCO₂ in 2100, under an atmospheric CO₂ concentration constraint of 550 ppmv. Carbon costs in 2100 turn out to be about 40 €/tCO₂ higher when the annual leakage rate is 1%/year in comparison to when there is no CO₂ leakage. Irrespective of whether CCS deployment is affected by gradual CO₂ seepage, the annual welfare loss in Europe induced by the implementation of policies preventing “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (under our assumption, implying a climate stabilisation target of 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration) remains below 0.5% of GDP during the entire century.

A LOW COST DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR SMALL FARMERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: In areas where water is scarce, drip irrigation provides the most efficient way to conserve irrigation water, but its cost of £1000 an acre is prohibitive for most small farmers in developing countries. The cost was reduced by 90 percent by (1) making dripper lines moveable, so that each line reaches ten rows instead of one; (2) replacing 25-cent emitters with simple 0.70 mm holes punched by a heated needle; and (3) using £3.00 off-the-shelf 20 liter containers with cloth filters in place of expensive filter systems. This reduced the cost of a half-acre system to £50. The low cost system was field tested in the hill areas of Nepal, and in mulberry cultivation in Andhra Pradesh, India. Uniformity of flow from emitters was 73–84 percent. Small farmers reported that the low cost trickle irrigation system cut labor requirements in half, and doubled the area irrigated by the same amount of water. The low cost drip system is likely to be widely adopted by small farmers in semi-arid and hilly regions.     

Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data

Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High‐density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10‐40% of the landscape. Compared with density‐based models, the occurrence‐based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density‐based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts.     

Entitlements and the Wollo Famine of 1982–1985

The traglic recent events in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa have again foccussed attention on the different anaytical approaches to the problems iof famine. Perhaps the most important analytical contribution to this field has been Sen's "entitlements approach." One of the case studies Sen used to articulate this approach was of the 1972–1973 famine in Wollo Province, Ethiopia. This article provides a provisional assessment of the famine process in the Wollo during 1982–1985 to set against the analysis by Sen of the earlier famine. Some striking contrasts are revealed.     

Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation and erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise have been detailed and localised in extent. There is a need for regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters – elevation, exposure, aspect and slope, are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. For comparison, the same parameters are modeled on a fine-scale for the False Bay area within the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerability classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-correlation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is strongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relationship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. The results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal process modeling may be suitable as a first cut in assessing coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise in tide-dominated, sedimentary coastal regions. Distributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for on-ground management and priority-setting on a regional scale.     

Restoring the Great Basin Desert, U.S.A.: Integrating Science, Management, and People

The Great Basin Desert lies between the Sierra Nevada Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. Nearly 60% of the area’s deserts and mountains (roughly 30 million ha) are managed by the U. S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management. This area is characterized by low annual precipitation, diverse desert plant communities, and local economies that depend on the products (livestock grazing, recreation, mining, etc.) produced by these lands. The ecological and economic stability of the Great Basin is increasingly at risk due to the expansion of fire-prone invasive species and increase in wildfires. To stem this loss of productivity and diversity in the Great Basin, the BLM initiated the “Great Basin Restoration Initiative” in 1999 after nearly 0.7 million ha of the Great Basin burned in wildfires. The objective of the Great Basin Restoration Initiative is to restore plant community diversity and structure by improving resiliency to disturbance and resistance to invasive species over the long-term. To accomplish this objective, a strategic plan has been developed that emphasizes local participation and reliance on appropriate science to ensure that restoration is accomplished in an economical and ecologically appropriate manner. If restoration in the Great Basin is not successful, desertification and the associated loss of economic stability and ecological integrity will continue to threaten the sustainability of natural resources and people in the Great Basin.