Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

The Potential for Double-Loop Learning to Enable Landscape Conservation Efforts

As conservation increases its emphasis on implementing change at landscape-level scales, multi-agency, cross-boundary, and multi-stakeholder networks become more important. These elements complicate traditional notions of learning. To investigate this further, we examined structures of learning in the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the entire US and its territories, as well as parts of Canada, Mexico, and Caribbean and Pacific island states. We used semi-structured interviews, transcribed and analyzed using NVivo, as well as a charrette-style workshop to understand the difference between the original stated goals of individual LCCs and the values and purposes expressed as the collaboration matured. We suggest double-loop learning as a theoretical framework appropriate to landscape-scale conservation, recognizing that concerns about accountability are among the valid points of view that must be considered in multi-stakeholder collaborations. Methods from the social sciences and public health sectors provide insights on how such learning might be actualized.     

Phosphorus load to surface water from bank erosion in a Danish lowland river basin

Phosphorus loss from bank erosion was studied in the catchment of River Odense, a lowland Danish river basin, with the aim of testing the hypothesis of whether stream banks act as major diffuse phosphorus (P) sources at catchment scale. Furthermore, the study aimed at analyzing the impact of different factors influencing bank erosion and P loss such as stream order, anthropogenic disturbances, width of uncultivated buffer strips, and the vegetation of buffer strips. A random stratified procedure in geographical information system (GIS) was used to select two replicate stream reaches covering different stream orders, channelized vs. naturally meandering channels, width of uncultivated buffer strips (≤ 2 m and ≥ 10 m), and buffer strips with different vegetation types. Thirty-six 100-m stream reaches with 180 bank plots and a total of 3000 erosion pins were established in autumn 2006, and readings were conducted during a 3-yr period (2006-2009). The results show that neither stream size nor stream disturbance measured as channelization of channel or the width of uncultivated buffer strip had any significant ( < 0.05) influence on bank erosion and P losses during each of the 3 yr studied. In buffer strips with natural trees bank erosion was significantly ( < 0.05) lower than in buffer strips dominated by grass and herbs. Gross and net P input from bank erosion amounted to 13.8 to 16.5 and 2.4 to 6.3 t P, respectively, in the River Odense catchment during the three study years. The net P input from bank erosion equaled 17 to 29% of the annual total P export and 21 to 62% of the annual export of P from diffuse sources from the River Odense catchment. Most of the exported total P was found to be bioavailable (71.7%) based on a P speciation of monthly suspended sediment samples collected at the outlet of the river basin. The results found in this study have a great importance for managers working with P mitigation and modeling at catchment scale.     

Ornamental Marine Species Culture in the Coral Triangle: Seahorse Demonstration Project in the Spermonde Islands,Sulawesi, Indonesia

Ornamental marine species (‘OMS’) provide valuable income for developing nations in the Indo-Pacific Coral Triangle, from which most of the specimens are exported. OMS culture can help diversify livelihoods in the region, in support of management and conservation efforts to reduce destructive fishing and collection practices that threaten coral reef and seagrass ecosystems. Adoption of OMS culture depends on demonstrating its success as a livelihood, yet few studies of OMS culture exist in the region. We present a case study of a land-based culture project for an endangered seahorse (Hippocampus barbouri) in the Spermonde Islands, Sulawesi, Indonesia. The business model demonstrated that culturing can increase family income by seven times. A Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (SWOT) analysis indicated good collaboration among diverse stakeholders and opportunities for culturing non-endangered species and for offshoot projects, but complicated permitting was an issue as were threats of market flooding and production declines. The OMS international market is strong, Indonesian exporters expressed great interest in cultured product, and Indonesia is the largest exporting country for H. barbouri. Yet, a comparison of Indonesia ornamental marine fish exports to fish abundance in a single local market indicated that OMS culture cannot replace fishing livelihoods. Nevertheless, seahorse and other OMS culture can play a role in management and conservation by supplementing and diversifying the fishing and collecting livelihoods in the developing nations that provide the majority of the global OMS.