Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

Supervisor expediency to employee expediency: The moderating role of leader–member exchange and the mediating role of employee unethical tolerance

We utilize social learning theory to test the role‐modeling effect of supervisor expediency (i.e., a supervisor's use of unethical practices to expedite work for self‐serving purposes). In particular, we examine the relationship between supervisor expediency and employee expediency, as moderated by leader–member exchange (LMX) and mediated by employee unethical tolerance. We predict that employees are more likely to model their supervisors' expedient behaviors when their relationship is characterized by high‐LMX (a high‐quality exchange relationship that is rich in socioemotional support). Furthermore, we argue that supervisor expediency, especially when LMX is high, influences employees' attitudes of unethical tolerance, which then affects employees' expedient behaviors. Across 2 multisource field studies and a third time‐lagged field study, we found general support for our theoretical predictions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Recommended metric for tracking visibility progress in the Regional Haze Rule

For many national parks and wilderness areas with special air quality protections (Class I areas) in the western United States (U.S.), wildfire smoke and dust events can have a large impact on visibility. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 1999 Regional Haze Rule used the 20% haziest days to track visibility changes over time even if they are dominated by smoke or dust. Visibility on the 20% haziest days has remained constant or degraded over the last 16 yr at some Class I areas despite widespread emission reductions from anthropogenic sources. To better track visibility changes specifically associated with anthropogenic pollution sources rather than natural sources, the EPA has revised the Regional Haze Rule to track visibility on the 20% most anthropogenically impaired (hereafter, most impaired) days rather than the haziest days. To support the implementation of this revised requirement, the EPA has proposed (but not finalized) a recommended metric for characterizing the anthropogenic and natural portions of the daily extinction budget at each site. This metric selects the 20% most impaired days based on these portions using a “delta deciview” approach to quantify the deciview scale impact of anthropogenic light extinction. Using this metric, sulfate and nitrate make up the majority of the anthropogenic extinction in 2015 on these days, with natural extinction largely made up of organic carbon mass in the eastern U.S. and a combination of organic carbon mass, dust components, and sea salt in the western U.S. For sites in the western U.S., the seasonality of days selected as the 20% most impaired is different than the seasonality of the 20% haziest days, with many more winter and spring days selected. Applying this new metric to the 2000–2015 period across sites representing Class I areas results in substantial changes in the calculated visibility trend for the northern Rockies and southwest U.S., but little change for the eastern U.S.

Implications: Changing the approach for tracking visibility in the Regional Haze Rule allows the EPA, states, and the public to track visibility on days when reductions in anthropogenic emissions have the greatest potential to improve the view. The calculations involved with the recommended metric can be incorporated into the routine IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) data processing, enabling rapid analysis of current and future visibility trends. Natural visibility conditions are important in the calculations for the recommended metric, necessitating the need for additional analysis and potential refinement of their values.     

The seasonal cycles and photochemistry of C2–C5 alkanes at Mace Head

Continuous in-situ measurements of NMHCs at Mace Head, Ireland during two full annual cycles from January 2005 to January 2007 were used to investigate NMHC emission sources and transport including dilution and photochemical oxidation. The Mace Head research station is ideally located to sample a wide range of air masses including polluted European transport, clean North Atlantic and Arctic air masses and the ultra-clean, Southern Atlantic air masses. The variety in air mass sampling is used to investigate interaction of emissions, transport, dilution and photochemistry. Variability of long-lived hydrocarbon ratios is used to assess and estimate typical transport times from emission source to the Mace Head receptor. Seasonality in the ratios of isomeric alkane pairs (for butane and pentanes) are used to assess the effects of atmospheric transport and photochemical ageing. Finally, the natural logarithms of NMHC ratios are used to assess photochemical oxidation.     

Analysis of 3-year observations of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 from a semi-rural site in China

In-situ measurements of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) can be used to the assess their global and regional emissions and to check for compliance with phase-out schedules under Montreal protocol and its amendments. The atmospheric mixing ratios of CFC-11 (CCl₃F), CFC-12 (CCl₂F₂) and CFC-113 (CCl₂F–CClF₂) have been measured by an automated in-situ GC-ECDs system at the regional Chinese Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station Shangdianzi (SDZ), from November 2006 to October 2009. The time series for these three principal CFCs showed large episodic events and background conditions occurred for approximately 30% (CFC-11), 52% (CFC-12) and 56% (CFC-113) of the measurements. The mean background mixing ratios for CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 were 244.8 ppt (parts per trillion, 10^?12, molar) 539.6 ppt and 76.8 ppt, respectively, for 2006–2009. The enhanced CFC mixing ratios compared to AGAGE sites such as Trinidad Head (THD), US and Mace Head (MHD), Ireland suggest regional influences even during background conditions at SDZ, which is much closer to highly-populated areas. Between 2006 and 2009 background CFCs exhibited downward trends at rates of ?2.0 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-11, ?2.5 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-12 and ?0.7 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-113. De-trended 3-year average background seasonal cycles displayed small fluctuations with peak-to-trough amplitudes of 1.0 ± 0.02 ppt (0.4%) for background CFC-11, 1.3 ± 2.1 ppt (0.3%) for CFC-12 and 0.2 ± 0.4 ppt (0.3%) for CFC-113. On the other hand, during pollution periods these CFCs showed much larger seasonal cycles of 11.2 ± 10.7 ppt (5%) for CFC-11, 7.5 ± 6.5 ppt (2%) for CFC-12 and 1.0 ± 1.2 ppt (1.2%) for CFC-113, with apparent winter minima and early summer maxima. This enhancement was attributed to prevailing wind directions from urban regions in summer and to enhanced anthropogenic sources during the warm season. In general, horizontal winds from northeast showed negative contribution to atmospheric CFCs loading, whereas South Western advection (urban sector: Beijing) had positive contributions.     

Biological Assessment to Support Ecological Recovery of a Degraded Headwater System

An assessment of the benthic macroinvertebrate community was conducted to characterize the ecological recovery of a channelized main stem and two small tributaries at the Watershed Research and Education Center (WREC, Arkansas, USA). Three other headwater streams in the same basin were also sampled as controls and for biological reference information. A principal components analysis produced stream groupings along an overall gradient of physical habitat integrity, with degraded reaches showing lower RBP habitat scores, reduced flow velocities, smaller substrate sizes, greater conductivity, and higher percentages of sand and silt substrate. The benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage at WREC was dominated by fast-reproducing dipteran larvae (midge and mosquito larvae) and physid snails, which comprised 71.3% of the total macroinvertebrate abundance over three sampling periods. Several macroinvertebrate assemblage metrics should provide effective targets for monitoring overall improvements in the invertebrate assemblage including recovery towards a more complex food web (e.g., total number of taxa, number of EPT taxa, percent 2 dominant taxa). However, current habitat conditions and the extent of existing degradation, system isolation and surrounding urban or agricultural land-uses might affect the level of positive change to the system. We therefore suggest a preliminary restoration strategy involving the addition of pool habitats in the system. At one pool we collected a total of 29 taxa (dominated by water beetle predators), which was 59% of total number of taxa collected at WREC. Maintaining water-retentive pools to collect flows and maintain water permanence focuses on enhancing known biology and habitat, thus reducing the effects of abiotic filters on macroinvertebrate assemblage recovery. Furthermore, biological assessment prior to restoration supports a strategy primarily focused on improving the existing macroinvertebrate community in the current context of the system, thereby reducing costs associated with active channel restoration. Monitoring future biological recovery and determining the contribution of changing assemblages to specific ecological processes would provide a critical underpinning for adaptive management and ecologically-effective restoration.     

The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets

This paper models the monthly price volatilities of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices) and investigates the macroeconomic determinants (business cycle, monetary environment and financial market sentiment) of these volatilities. Gold volatility is shown to be explained by monetary variables, but this is not true for silver. Overall, there is limited evidence that the same macroeconomic factors jointly influence the volatility processes of the four precious metal price series, although there is evidence of volatility feedback between the precious metals. These results are consistent with the view that precious metals are too distinct to be considered a single asset class, or represented by a single index. This finding is of importance for portfolio managers and investors.     

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO(2) taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO(2) measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO(2) levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.     

Anthropogenic oligotrophication via liming: Long-term phosphorus trends in acidified,limed, and neutral reference lakes in Sweden

Restoration of acidified lakes by liming does not, in many cases, improve productivity to a pre-acidified state. We hypothesize that the poor recovery detected in many of these lakes is due to constrained in-lake phosphorous (P) cycling caused by enhanced precipitation of metals in higher pH, limed waters. Long-term (1990–2012) data for 65 limed, circum-neutral (pH 6–8), and acidified lakes in Sweden were analyzed to determine trends for P and potential drivers of these trends. Limed lakes not only had lower mean values and stronger decreasing trends for total P than non-limed lakes, but they also had the highest percentage of decreasing trends (85 %). A P release factor (Hypolimnetic P/Epilimnetic P) was developed to elucidate differences in internal P cycling between lake groups. Consistently, lower P release factors in limed lakes show limitation of internal P cycling during summer months that may be a factor limiting P bioavailability and thus productivity of these systems.