An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

The anti-predator function of ‘eyespots’ on camouflaged and conspicuous prey

Animals utilise various strategies to reduce the risk of predation, including camouflage, warning colours and mimicry, and many of these protective signals promote avoidance behaviour in predators. For example, various species possess paired circular ‘eyespots’, which startle or intimidate predators, preventing or halting an attack. However, little is known of how the efficacy of such signals relates to the context in which they are found, and no studies have tested the relative effectiveness of anti-predator signals when on otherwise camouflaged and conspicuous prey. We find that the protective value of conspicuous wing spots, placed on artificial moth-like targets presented to wild birds in the field, is strongly affected by the attributes of the prey ‘animal’ on which they are found. Wing spots reduced predation when on conspicuous prey but were rendered ineffective when on otherwise camouflaged targets, indeed they increased the risk of predation compared to non-marked camouflaged controls. These results demonstrate how different anti-predator strategies may interact, and that protective signals can switch from being beneficial to costly under different contexts.     

Graduated driver licensing: the New Zealand experience

In New Zealand, on 1 August 1987, a three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) system that applied to all new drivers aged 15-24 years was introduced. The essential elements of GDL were a 6-month learner license (supervised driving) and an 18-month restricted license stage (with restrictions on night driving and carrying passengers). A blood alcohol limit of 0.03 mg% applied at both stages. EVALUATION STUDIES: Early studies indicated that young people were reasonably accepting of the restrictions, with the passenger restriction being the least acceptable. Problems of compliance with the restricted license driving restrictions were reported. Evaluations of the impact of the graduated driver licensing (GDL) on serious traffic-related injury showed that up until 1991-1992, an 8% reduction could be attributed to GDL. At this time, it was considered that reduced exposure was the main reason for this reduction. However, the number of fatalities and hospital admissions among young people continued to decline, as did the population rate and the rate per number of licensed drivers among the young driver age group. A further evaluation study showed that drivers with a restricted license had a smaller proportion of crashes at night, and with passengers, compared with drivers licensed before GDL. IMPACT OF GDL: These results suggested that GDL restrictions had contributed to the reduction in crashes among young people and that it was not simply a case of reduced exposure to risk. An update of the most recent crash statistics indicated that, compared with older age groups, the fatal and serious injury crash rate among young people has remained substantially below the pre-GDL level. This suggests that the impact of GDL has not diminished over time.     

New Zealand drivers study: developing a methodology for conducting a follow-up study of newly licensed drivers

PROBLEM: In recent years, there has been a significant reduction in traffic crash injury among young people, but they continue to be overrepresented in the traffic crash statistics. To improve this situation, sound scientific evidence is needed to develop effective policies and programs. METHOD: The aim of the proposed study is to provide this evidence by examining early driving and driving-related experiences of newly licensed drivers as they progress through the learner-, restricted-, and full-license stages of the graduated licensing system and to determine the impact of these experiences on subsequent negative traffic-related outcomes (risky driving behavior, injury traffic crashes, noninjury traffic crashes, infringements, convictions). Given the size and complexity of the proposed study, a comprehensive pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility of conducting a New Zealand-wide cohort study of newly licensed drivers. RESULTS: This article describes the pilot study process and the methodology that has been developed for the New Zealand-wide study.     

Power,responsibility and justice: a review of local stakeholder participation in European flood risk management

Over the past few decades, there has been an increasing interest in the active involvement of local stakeholders in the management of floods in Europe. Such involvement is seen as necessary as the management of floods becomes more complex. Management approaches now seek to include a range of potential measures to reduce risk (e.g. structural defence, spatial planning and property-level protection measures). Local stakeholder involvement is seen to be important because governments lack the capacities such as knowledge and funding required to deliver all these measures alone. This paper focuses on the implications that more participative approaches have on the fairness of European flood risk management (FRM). Studies of environmental justice are well placed to address this question because they are interested in who is included and excluded from decisions related to the distribution of environmental goods (resources) and bads (risks). Existing literature suggests that fair decision-making processes (procedural justice) can lead to fair distribution or resources and risks (distributive justice). This literature review of 30 peer-reviewed papers provides an analysis of justice and FRM by assessing practices of participation which are presented in the recent literature on local stakeholder involvement in FRM in England, Germany and the Netherlands. It was found that participation in practice generally focuses on transferring responsibility to the local level at the expense of power. This paper discusses the implications that this finding has for justice and synthesises potential ways forward based on recommendations of the reviewed literature.     

Environmental policy for sustainable development of natural resources

This paper describes new environmental policies and expanded administrative agencies which in recent years have been adopted by many governments faced with a continuing decline in the quality of their environments. In a number of developed and developing countries, devising a far reaching environmental policy for sustainable development of the natural resources sector is a national priority. Specific environmental policies may be classified according to objectives, timeframe, mechanisms for implementation, whether or not they are binding, and the nature of sanction. This paper provides some generalizations about certain features common to most environmental policies. In the first section an examination is made of some of the most pressing problems which environmental policies relating to natural resources seek to address. The second section discusses environmental policies themselves. The third section, which makes up the main body of the paper, assesses the strengths and weaknesses of a variety of mechanisms available for implementing environmental policies to promote sustainable development in the natural resources sector.     

Barriers to evidence use for sustainability: Insights from pesticide policy and practice

Calls for supporting sustainability through more and better research rest on an incomplete understanding of scientific evidence use. We argue that a variety of barriers to a transformative impact of evidence arises from diverse actor motivations within different stages of evidence use. We abductively specify this variety in policy and practice arenas for three actor motivations (truth-seeking, sense-making, and utility-maximizing) and five stages (evidence production, uptake, influence on decisions, effects on sustainability outcomes, and feedback from outcome evaluations). Our interdisciplinary synthesis focuses on the sustainability challenge of reducing environmental and human health risks of agricultural pesticides. It identifies barriers resulting from (1) truth-seekers’ desire to reduce uncertainty that is complicated by evidence gaps, (2) sense-makers’ evidence needs that differ from the type of evidence available, and (3) utility-maximizers’ interests that guide strategic evidence use. We outline context-specific research–policy–practice measures to increase evidence use for sustainable transformation in pesticides and beyond.     

Operationalizing risk perception and preparedness behavior research for a multi-hazard context

Increasingly, citizens are being asked to take a more active role in disaster risk reduction (DRR), as decentralization of hazard governance has shifted greater responsibility for hazard preparedness actions onto individuals. Simultaneously, the taxonomy of hazards considered for DRR has expanded to include medical and social crises alongside natural hazards. Risk perception research emerged to support decision-makers with understanding how people characterize and evaluate different hazards to anticipate behavioral response and guide risk communication. Since its inception, the risk perception concept has been incorporated into many behavioral theories, which have been applied to examine preparedness for numerous hazard types. Behavioral theories have had moderate success in predicting or explaining preparedness behaviors; however, they are typically applied to a single hazard type and there is a gap in understanding which theories (if any) are suited for examining multiple hazard types simultaneously. This paper first reviews meta-analyses of behavioral theories to better understand performance. Universal lessons learnt are summarized for survey design. Second, theoretically based preparedness studies for floods, earthquakes, epidemics, and terrorism are reviewed to assess the conceptual requirements for a ‘multi-hazard’ preparedness approach. The development of an online preparedness self-assessment and learning platform is discussed.