Simulating Historical Variability in the Amount of Old Forests in the Oregon Coast Range

Abstract: We developed the landscape age-class demographics simulator ( LADS) to model historical variability in the amount of old-growth and late-successional forest in the Oregon Coast Range over the past 3,000 years. The model simulated temporal and spatial patterns of forest fires along with the resulting fluctuations in the distribution of forest age classes across the landscape. Parameters describing historical fire regimes were derived from data from a number of existing dendroecological and paleoecological studies. Our results indicated that the historical age-class distribution was highly variable and that variability increased with decreasing landscape size. Simulated old-growth percentages were generally between 25% and 75% at the province scale (2,250,000 ha) and never fell below 5%. In comparison, old-growth percentages varied from 0 to 100% at the late-successional reserve scale (40,000 ha). Province-scale estimates of current old-growth (5%) and late-successional forest (11%) in the Oregon Coast Range were lower than expected under the simulated historical fire regime, even when potential errors in our parameter estimates were considered. These uncertainties do, however, limit our ability to precisely define ranges of historical variability. Our results suggest that in areas where historical disturbance regimes were characterized by large, infrequent fires, management of forest age classes based on a range of historical variability may be feasible only at relatively large spatial scales. Comprehensive landscape management strategies will need to consider other factors besides the percentage of old forests on the landscape, including the spatial pattern of stands and the rates and pathways of landscape change.     

Determinants of group size in the red colobus monkey (Procolobus badius): an evaluation of the generality of the ecological-constraints model

The ecological-constraints model proposes that increased group size increases within-group feeding competition, necessitating increased travel and, consequently, constraining group size. Previous studies have supported the model for frugivores, but its applicability to folivores remains untested. This study evaluated the generality of the model by re-examining the relationship between day range and group size for a folivorous species for which published accounts have not found a relationship between these factors. This study differs from earlier studies by accounting for variation in food availability, which may drive changes in day range. We quantified the relationships among food availability, day range, and group size for two red colobus groups at Kibale National Park, Uganda. Mean day range and home range were significantly greater for the group of 48 individuals compared to the group of 24 individuals. The large group traveled more and rested less than the small group. The large group also traveled more rapidly than the small group. Food availability significantly predicted mean day range for the large group, but not for the small group. Analyses of covariance demonstrated that the large and small group responded differently to changes in food availability. These observations suggest that the large red colobus group experiences greater levels of within-group feeding competition than the small group. This study provides added support for the generality of the ecological-constraints model and contributes toward an understanding of the mechanisms controlling feeding competition and social organization in primates.     

Pesticide transport via sub-surface drains in Europe

Transport of pesticides from point of application via sub-surface drains can contribute significantly to contamination of surface waters. Results of 23 field drainage experiments undertaken at sites across Europe were collated and analysed by residual maximum likelihood. Both maximum concentration of pesticide in drainflow (n = 167) and seasonal loss of pesticide to drains (n = 97) were significantly related to strength of pesticide sorption to soil, half-life of the pesticide in soil, the interval between application and first drainflow and the clay content of the soil. The statistical models accounted for 71% of the variability in both maximum concentration and seasonal load. Next, the dataset was used to evaluate the current methodology for assessment of aquatic exposure used in pesticide registration in Europe. Simulations for seven compounds with contrasting properties showed a good correspondence with field measurements. Finally, the review examines management approaches to reduce pesticide transport via sub-surface drains. Despite a large amount of work in this area, there are few dependable mitigation options other than to change application rate or timing or to restrict use of a compound in the most vulnerable situations.     

Risk assessment of the use of PAS100 green composts in sheep and cattle production in Scotland

A generalized quantitative risk assessment for the use of source-segregated green waste (SSGW) compost use in livestock production is presented. This assessment focussed on potential risks associated with a specific product, PAS100 compost that meets the UK publicly available specification 100 and represents the majority of compost available for use in extensive Scottish livestock systems. A hazard screening approach was used to identify all potentially hazardous agents present in compost. A total of 497 potentially hazardous agents were screened, with 147 finally put forward for quantitative risk assessment. Scenarios modelled in the assessment included surface application of compost to grazing land and also incorporation into soil and subsequent uptake by fodder crops. Risk estimates were compared to those associated with six comparator materials, including various sludges, slurries and farm yard manures. Overall, five potentially hazardous agents (PCB28, PCB138, PCB153, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD, Clopyralid) returned a hazard quotient >1 but within margins of uncertainty, indicating that further investigation may be required. Within the limitations of available information, SSGW compost was found to pose less risk to grazing livestock, or the environment, than other commonly-used soil amendments. While this assessment relates to a specific product/standard used in the UK, the methodology could easily be applied to other composts/products/situations. Therefore these results have wider applicability.     

Occurrence of triclosan in plasma of wild Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and in their environment

The presence of triclosan, a widely-used antibacterial chemical, is currently unknown in higher trophic-level species such as marine mammals. Blood plasma collected from wild bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Charleston, SC (CHS) (n = 13) and Indian River Lagoon, FL (IRL) (n = 13) in 2005 was analyzed for triclosan. Plasma concentrations in CHS dolphins ranged from 0.12 to 0.27 ng/g wet weight (mean 0.18 ng/g), with 31% of the sampled individuals having detectable triclosan. The mean IRL dolphin plasma concentrations were 0.072 ng/g wet weight (range 0.025–0.11 ng/g); 23% of the samples having detectable triclosan. In the CHS area, triclosan effluent values from two WWTP were both 190 ng/L and primary influents were 2800 ng/L and 3400 ng/L. Triclosan values in CHS estuarine surface water samples averaged 7.5 ng/L (n = 18) ranging from 4.9 to 14 ng/L. This is the first study to report bioaccumulation of anthropogenic triclosan in a marine mammal highlighting the need for further monitoring and assessment.     

Connectivity of wood thrush breeding,wintering, and migration sites based on range‐wide tracking

Many migratory animals are experiencing rapid population declines, but migration data with the geographic scope and resolution to quantify the complex network of movements between breeding and nonbreeding regions are often lacking. Determining the most frequently used migration routes and nonbreeding regions for a species is critical for understanding population dynamics and making effective conservation decisions. We tracked the migration of individual Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) (n = 102) from across their range with light‐level geolocators and, for the first time, quantified migration routes and wintering regions for distinct breeding populations. We identified regional and species‐level migratory connectivity networks for this declining songbird by combining our tracking results with range‐wide breeding abundance estimates and forest cover data. More than 50% of the species occupied the eastern wintering range (Honduras to Costa Rica), a region that includes only one‐third of all wintering habitat and that is undergoing intensive deforestation. We estimated that half of all Wood Thrushes in North America migrate south through Florida in fall, whereas in spring approximately 73% funnel northward through a narrow span along the central U.S. Gulf Coast (88–93°W). Identifying migratory networks is a critical step for conservation of songbirds and we demonstrated with Wood Thrushes how it can highlight conservation hotspots for regional populations and species as a whole. Conectividad de Sitios de Reproducción, Invierno y Migración del Zorzal con Base en Rastreo de Cobertura Amplia     

Vulnerability of Water Systems to the Effects of Climate Change and Urbanization: A Comparison of Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon (USA)

The coupled processes of climate change and urbanization pose challenges for water resource management in cities worldwide. Comparing the vulnerabilities of water systems in Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon, this paper examines (1) exposures to these stressors, (2) sensitivities to the associated impacts, and (3) adaptive capacities for responding to realized or anticipated impacts. Based on a case study and survey-based approach, common points of vulnerability include: rising exposures to drier, warmer summers, and suburban growth; increasing sensitivities based on demand hardening; and limited capacities due to institutional and pro-growth pressures. Yet each region also exhibits unique vulnerabilities. Comparatively, Portland shows: amplified exposures to seasonal climatic extremes, heightened sensitivity based on less diversified municipal water sources and policies that favor more trees and other irrigated vegetation, and diminished adaptive capacities because of limited attention to demand management and climate planning for water resources. Phoenix exhibits elevated exposure from rapid growth, heightened sensitivities due to high water demands and widespread increases in residential and commercial uses, and limited adaptive capacities due to weak land use planning and “smart growth” strategies. Unique points of vulnerability suggest pathways for adapting to urban-environmental change, whether through water management or land planning. Greater coordination between the land and water sectors would substantially reduce vulnerabilities in the study regions and beyond.     

Stream Communities Along a Catchment Land-Use Gradient: Subsidy-Stress Responses to Pastoral Development

When native grassland catchments are converted to pasture, the main effects on stream physicochemistry are usually related to increased nutrient concentrations and fine-sediment input. We predicted that increasing nutrient concentrations would produce a subsidy-stress response (where several ecological metrics first increase and then decrease at higher concentrations) and that increasing sediment cover of the streambed would produce a linear decline in stream health. We predicted that the net effect of agricultural development, estimated as percentage pastoral land cover, would have a nonlinear subsidy-stress or threshold pattern. In our suite of 21 New Zealand streams, epilithic algal biomass and invertebrate density and biomass were higher in catchments with a higher proportion of pastoral land cover, responding mainly to increased nutrient concentration. Invertebrate species richness had a linear, negative relationship with fine-sediment cover but was unrelated to nutrients or pastoral land cover. In accord with our predictions, several invertebrate stream health metrics (Ephemeroptera–Plecoptera–Trichoptera density and richness, New Zealand Macroinvertebrate Community Index, and percent abundance of noninsect taxa) had nonlinear relationships with pastoral land cover and nutrients. Most invertebrate health metrics usually had linear negative relationships with fine-sediment cover. In this region, stream health, as indicated by macroinvertebrates, primarily followed a subsidy-stress pattern with increasing pastoral development; management of these streams should focus on limiting development beyond the point where negative effects are seen.     

Scale-dependence of land use effects on water quality of streams in agricultural catchments

The influence of land use on water quality in streams is scale-dependent and varies in time and space. In this study, land cover patterns and stocking rates were used as measures of agricultural development in two pasture and one native grassland catchment in New Zealand and were related to water quality in streams of various orders. The amount of pasture per subcatchment correlated well to total nitrogen and nitrate in one catchment and turbidity and total phosphorous in the other catchment. Stocking rates were only correlated to total phosphorous in one pasture catchment but showed stronger correlations to ammonium, total phosphorous and total nitrogen in the other pasture catchment. Winter and spring floods were significant sources of nutrients and faecal coliforms from one of the pasture catchments into a wetland complex. Nutrient and faecal coliform concentrations were better predicted by pastural land cover in fourth-order than in second-order streams. This suggests that upstream land use is more influential in larger streams, while local land use and other factors may be more important in smaller streams. These temporal and spatial scale effects indicate that water-monitoring schemes need to be scale-sensitive.