EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

Fault-dynamic modelling of a phthalic anhydride reactor

A new methodology, fault-dynamic modelling, has been developed for analysis of potentially hazardous situations in the process industries. Traditional fault-tree analysis is used to determine the combinations of component failure that can lead to a particular process upset condition. Realistic dynamic modelling is then used to calculate the time available for corrective action once the upset has started. The method is applied to a phthalic anhydride reactor. The results of the analysis identify three process upsets that can lead to catastrophic failure in 2–5 min if left uncorrected. Other process upsets lead to safe conditions.     

Integrated assessment: Missing link in the acid rain debate?

The United States is finding it difficult to develop a coherent policy on acid rain. Despite more than a decade of scientific research and policy initiatives, no clear course of action has been identified. This article argues that what is missing is an integrated assessment of the scientific knowledge that will guide the political process. The role of the integrated assessment is described, and a conceptual framework presented that would accomplish the desired goal. Currently available acid rain assessment models are compared against this framework and found to be less than satisfactory. The article concludes by stressing the opportunity now available to the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to perform such an assessment and break the logjam.     

Toward an applied phenomenology: The case of abandoned pier use in Hoboken,New Jersey,USA

This research demonstrates the contribution of phenomenological inquiry within the realm of geographic and environmental planning. The contention is that a focus on the wide range of individual meanings and values ascribed to landscapes, a marginalized element in many planning assessments, can bring out data to more substantively inform decision making, A case study of user meanings imparted to residual waterfront land in Hoboken, New Jersey, USA, suggests that such property provides an array of amenities to residents. Most importantly, it expands the range of recreational activities, creates visual relief from the monotonous urban milieu, and provides scenic vistas to promote an awareness of the quality of life still possible in cities. The study concludes that planners can use phenomenology to generate data for more judicious decision making.     

Landscape change: Perceptions and physical measures

This paper addresses questions of affective responses of residents of rural Arizona to changes in proximate community and riparian landscapes and the congruence of their perceptions of change with physical measures of change in those landscapes. Based on findings and concepts from previous studies, perceptions of change were assessed using a mail survey. Physical measures of land use and vegetation change were obtained from aerial photography for two points in time spanning approximately 13 years and were analyzed using a geographic information system. Significant differences were found in perceptions of change in the community and riparian landscapes. In contrast with previous findings, a majority of respondents found the changes as either improving or having no effect on landscape quality. Those who were more frequent users of the riparian landscape tended to be more aware of changes in it. The findings also suggest challenges for planners and resource managers working in rural areas adjacent to riparian landscapes.     

Development and use of site-specific chemical and biological criteria for assessing New Bedford Harbor pilot dredging project

Numerical site-specific chemical and biological criteria were established to assess the impact of a pilot dredging project on water quality at the New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts, USA, Superfund site. Because most existing chemical concentrations in the water column and indigenous biota exceeded federal and state water quality limits, the derivation of site-specific criteria was required. Prior to any operational phases of the project (i.e., dike construction, dredging), criteria values were developed from background concentrations of PCBs and metals in water and biota, as well as for the toxic effects of water quality on the biota. During each operational phase of the project, water samples were collected, analyzed within 16 h, and the data supplied to a management committee in order to assess the environmental impact of the previous days' operation. The ambient unfiltered water concentration of PCBs and metals were the only chemical or biological criteria exceeded. Modification of the next days' operations resulted in a return of these concentrations to background levels. The combined use of site-specific criteria and a real-time decision making management process allowed for successful completion of this project with a minimal effect on water quality.     

A RISK-BASED MODEL FOR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A risk-based model is presented for determining action levels in real-time operation of public water supplies under drought conditions. The model, applicable to surface water supplies, is built around the almost universally adopted structure for drought management, a sequence of increasingly stringent measures to reduce demand. Action levels are determined by finding minimum storage levels that will satisfy a prescribed set of probability constraints over the remainder of a drawdown-refill cycle. Results are presented for the City of Raleigh, NC.     

SOIL MOISTURE SENSORS FOR CONTINUOUS MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Certain physical and chemical properties of soil vary with soil water content. The relationship between these properties and water content is complex and involves both the pore structure and constituents of the soil solution. One of the most economical techniques to quantify soil water content involves the measurement of electrical resistance of a dielectric medium that is in equilibrium with the soil water content. The objective of this research was to test the reliability and accuracy of fiberglass soil-moisture electrical resistance sensors (ERS) as compared to gravimetric sampling and Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR). The response of the ERS was compared to gravimetric measurements at eight locations on the USDA-ABS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. The comparisons with TDR sensors were made at three additional locations on the same watershed. The high soil rock content (≥45 percent) at seven locations resulted in consistent overestimation of soil water content by the ERS method. Where rock content was less than 10 percent, estimation of soil water was within 5 percent of the gravimetric soil water content. New methodology to calibrate the ERS sensors for rocky soils will need to be developed before soil water content values can be determined with these sensors.