Slash fire hazard analysis on the Siskiyou National Forest

Potential increase in fire hazard as a result of timber harvesting is a concern of forest managers throughout the United States. Treating fuels can help reduce unacceptable fire hazards. To evaluate alternative fuel treatments, managers need to know their effects on fire hazard. A decision analysis approach to estimating fire hazard in terms of expected burned area was applied to a watershed in the Siskiyou National Forest (Oregon). Three treatment alternatives (do nothing and two levels of yarding unmerchantable material) were evaluated, and the effects of the treatments were projected over a 90-yr period. Initially, the effects of applying a treatment are small. After 50 years of treatment, the most intense alternative can be expected to show almost a 50% reduction in burned area compared to no treatment. The procedure also estimates burned are by fire size and fire intensity classes. Managers may find this useful for estimating expected fire effects associated with a particular fuel treatment regime.     

Strategies for controlling hazards at work

This paper presents an heuristic framework for analyzing hazards (potential for loss or harm) and strategies that may be developed to control their realization. Two basic forms of intervention for hazard control (anticipation and reaction) are identified. Three broad anticipative strategies are discussed: (1) elimination of the source of the hazard, (2) containment of the risk of its realization, and (3) mitigation of likely consequences. The communication and judgmental processes involved in decisions about strategies are shown to be embedded in the organizational “political” context, in which a variety of interests backed by varying sources of power and influence are represented. The development, implementation, and monitoring of any strategies that are decided upon are then discussed, including the fact that such actions and events may not produce the intended results. Comments are also made on the need for data provided by monitoring to be evaluated and appropriate adaptations made. Finally, a brief section of the paper discusses reactive strategies.     

The effect of right-turn-on-red on pedestrian and bicyclist accidents

Right-Turn-on-Red (RTOR), in its “Western” version allows motorists to turn right on a red signal after stopping and yielding, unless specifically prohibited by a sign. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of Western RTOR on pedestrian and bicycle accidents in selected jurisdictions adopting the rule in the mid-1970s. The results showed significant increases in pedestrian and bicyclist accidents involving right-turning vehicles at signalized locations following the introduction of Western RTOR. These increases were: 40 % for pedestrians and 82 % for bicycles in New York State; 107 % for pedestrians and 72 % for bicycles in Wisconsin; 57 % for pedestrians and 80 % for bicycles in Ohio; and 82 % for pedestrians in New Orleans. Analysis of police accident reports suggested that drivers stopped for a red light are looking left for a gap in traffic and do not see pedestrians and bicyclists coming from their right. Countermeasure research and development was recommended to deal with this well defined problem which involves between 1 % and 3 % of all pedestrian and bicycle accidents.     

Reviews

Planning theory

Andreas Faludi

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973. Hard cover £4.75, flexi‐cover £3.

PLANNING AND THE INNOVATION PROCESS (Progress in Planning, Vol. 1, Part 3)

Ray Jefferson

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973

THRESHOLD ANALYSIS MANUAL

Scottish Development Department H.M.S.O., London, 1973. £6

THE PLANNER IN SOCIETY: THE CHANGING ROLE OF A PROFESSION

David Eversley

Faber and Faber, London, 1973. £4.75.

SUB‐REGIONAL PLANNING STUDIES: AN EVALUATION

T. M. Cowling and G. C. Steeley

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973. £3.80

SKETCHBOOKS OF PAOLO SOLERI

Paolo Soleri.

M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts & London, England, 1971.

ARCOLOGY: THE CITY IN THE IMAGE OF MAN.

Paolo Soleri.

M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts & London, England, 1969.

FREDERICK LAW OLMSTED AND THE AMERICAN ENVIRONMENTAL TRADITION

Albert Fein

George Braziller, New York. $10.00 cloth. $3.95 paper.

ECOLOGY AND RECLAMATION OF DEVASTED LAND (2 vols.) ed. Russel Hutnick and Grant Davis

Gordon and Breach, New York, 1973. £25.00.

MAN MADE THE LAND: Essays in English Historical Geography

Ed. Alan R. H. Baker and J. B. Harley.

David and Charles, Newton Abbot, 1973. £5.25.

THE UNKNOWN URBAN REALM (Vol. 2, Europe 2,000, Project 3, Urbanization, Planning Human Environment in Europe)

U. Neveling, R. Sulzer, W. Ubbens, G. Wersig.

Martinus Nijhoff, The Hague, 1973.     

Statistical Power of Presence-Absence Data to Detect Population Declines

Abstract: Population declines may be inferred from a decrease in the number of sites at which a species is detected. Although such presence-absence data often are interpreted informally, it is simple to test the statistical significance of changes in the number of sites occupied by a species. I used simulations to examine the statistical power (i.e., the probability of making the Type II error that no population decline has occurred when the population actually has declined) of presence-absence designs. Most presence-absence designs have low power to detect declines of < 20–50% in populations but have adequate power to detect steeper declines. Power was greater if the population disappeared entirely from a subset of formerly occupied sites than if it declined evenly over its entire range. Power also rose with (1) increases in the number of sites surveyed; (2) increases in population density or sampling effort at a site; and (3) decreases in spatial variance in population density. Because of potential problems with bias and inadequate power, presence-absence designs should be used and interpreted cautiously.     

Effect of Macroalgal Expansion and Marine Protected Areas on Coral Recovery Following a Climatic Disturbance

Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life‐form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. Efecto de la Expansión de Macroalgas y Áreas Marinas Protegidas sobre la Recuperación de Coral Después de una Perturbación Climática     

MR imaging of the fetal musculoskeletal system

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) appears to be increasingly used, in addition to standard ultrasonography for the diagnosis of abnormalities in utero. Previous studies have recently drawn attention to the technical refinement of MRI to visualize the fetal bones and muscles. Beyond commonly used T2-weighted MRI, echoplanar, thick-slab T2-weighted and dynamic sequences, and three-dimensional MRI techniques, are about to provide new imaging insights into the normal and the pathological musculoskeletal system of the fetus. This review emphasizes the potential significance of MRI in the visualization of the fetal musculoskeletal system. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.