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81.
The global warming caused by emissions of CO2 and trace gases is expected to cause shifts in climatic zones and rainfall patterns, and possibly thermal expansion of oceans. There are likely to be impacts on global agriculture and the food security of low-income countries, as well as disruptions to major ecosystem complexes such as forests. Rising sea levels will threaten low-lying regions, coastal zones and islands. Policy-makers will therefore have to consider the relative costs and benefits of 'doing nothing', preventive measures and adaptive responses. Economics should play a key and innovative role in this analysis.  相似文献   
82.
Tillage has been and will always be integral to crop production. Tillage can result in the degradation of soil, water, and air quality. Of all farm management practices, tillage may have the greatest impact on the environment. A wide variety of tillage equipment, practices and systems are available to farmers, providing opportunities to enhance environmental performance. These opportunities have made tillage a popular focus of environmental policies and programs such as environmental indicators for agriculture. This paper provides a very brief examination of the role of tillage in crop production, its effect on biophysical processes and, therefore, its impact on the environment. Models of biophysical processes are briefly examined to demonstrate the importance of tillage relative to other farm management practices and to demonstrate the detail of tillage data that these models can demand. The focus of this paper is an examination of the use of information on tillage in Canada's agri-environmental indicators initiative, National Agri-environmental Health Analysis and Reporting Program (NAHARP). Information on tillage is required for several of the indicators in NAHARP. The type of data used, its source, and its quality are discussed. Recommendations regarding the collection of tillage data and use of tillage information are presented.  相似文献   
83.
Abstract: The once-extensive tallgrass prairie community of North America has been reduced to small remnants, many of which are surrounded by intensive corn (   Zea mays ) agriculture. We investigated adult corn-rootworm beetles (Chrysomelidae : Diabrotica spp.), important pests of corn, on sunflowers (Asteraceae : Helianthus spp . ) in prairie remnants in southeast Minnesota. Large numbers of beetles invaded the prairie from surrounding corn fields in late summer. D. barberi and D. virgifera were captured on sticky traps in all locations in the prairie, but abundance was much greater near the edge adjacent to corn. We observed D. barberi ( but not D. virgifera ) feeding extensively on sunflower pollen and occasionally on other flower parts, such as petals. Sunflowers located nearer corn fields sustained more floral damage than those farther from corn. To determine the effect of beetle damage on seed set, we enclosed sunflower heads in bags with either zero, two, or four D. barberi adults. Seed set was reduced in heads enclosed with D. barberi . Thus, this agricultural pest may interfere with the successful reproduction of sunflowers and possibly other prairie composites that flower in late summer. Given the small size of most prairie remnants and the abundance of this flower-feeding beetle in landscapes dominated by corn agriculture, D. barberi may affect the sustainability of prairie plant populations.  相似文献   
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Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models. The confusion arises as much from semantic and philosophical considerations as from the selection of validation procedures. Validation is not a procedure for testing scientific theory or for certifying the ‘truth’ of current scientific understanding, nor is it a required activity of every modelling project. Validation means that a model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements.Before validation is undertaken, (1) the purpose of the model, (2) the performance criteria, and (3) the model context must be specified. The validation process can be decomposed into several components: (1) operation, (2) theory, and (3) data. Important concepts needed to understand the model evaluation process are verification, calibration, validation, credibility, and qualification. These terms are defined in a limited technical sense applicable to the evaluation of simulation models, and not as general philosophical concepts. Different tests and standards are applied to the operational, theoretical, and data components. The operational and data components can be validated; the theoretical component cannot.The most common problem with ecological and environmental models is failure to state what the validation criteria are. Criteria must be explicitly stated because there are no universal standards for selecting what test procedures or criteria to use for validation. A test based on comparison of simulated versus observed data is generally included whenever possible. Because the objective and subjective components of validation are not mutually exclusive, disagreements over the meaning of validation can only be resolved by establishing a convention.  相似文献   
87.
The observed composition of visibility-reducing aerosols in the Grand Canyon region is summarized in climatological terms. Observations are from SCENES, a measurement program extending from 1984 to 1989. Results are presented as average mass balances stratified by various factors.Aerosols were found to exhibit substantial seasonal variation, but little systematic diurnal variation. Crustal material was a dynamic component, and peaked during springtime. Aerosol composition, but not total concentration, depended strongly on ambient relative humidity, with crustal material augmented at low humidities and sulfates augmented at high humidities. Total fine-particle concentrations correlated strongly with light scattering, as expected; however, little association between chemical composition and light scattering was observed.  相似文献   
88.
Causal relationships involving role stressors, physical symptomatology, and turnover intentions were examined within three alternative specifications. These specifications stemmed from Beehr and Newman's (1978) and Schuler's (1982) models of role stress and Locke's (1976) theory of job satisfaction. The results, derived from LISREL VI analyses, indicate that a revised Schuler model is the most plausible specification. Findings are discussed in terms of implications for understanding role stress and employee withdrawal.  相似文献   
89.
Much effort has been directed toward elucidating pollution effects on marine benthic communities (Pearson and Rosenberg, 1978; Sanders et al., 1980; NAS 1985). Less effort has been directed at methods of data analysis which will identify distribution patterns and relationships between communities. Traditional community structure summary parameters such as species richness and various indices of diversity utilize only part of the information contained in a data set and are not very useful in elucidating relationships between communities of animals.  相似文献   
90.
The potential of powerline rights-of-way to provide songbird habitat in an urbanizing environment was assessed over a 7-month.period. Comparisons of species richness and total number of birds observed were made with a nearby residential development. The right-of-way, for 7 years free from herbicide manipulation, exhibited a greater number of species (but fewer individuals) and higher bird species diversity (BSD) than the residential area. The importance of mixed-shrub communities for the provision of niches for songbirds was demonstrated by increased BSD in residential vacant lots and sections of the right-of-way containing a variety of vegetative profiles. Recommendations are presented on right-of-way vegetation management to enhance songbird utilization.  相似文献   
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