Evaluation of ecological network analysis: Validation of output

Ecological network analysis (ENA) is a modeling approach increasingly being used to evaluate food webs and provide an ecosystem-based approach to resource management. Unfortunately, validation of ENA output is rarely performed. This study represents part of a larger effort to critically evaluate ENA. Here we validate ENA output using stable isotope analysis (SIA), and where validation is not met, determine the effects of modifying trophic networks to reflect validation.     

Habitat and landscape characteristics underlying anuran community structure along an urban-rural gradient

Urbanization has been cited as an important factor in worldwide amphibian declines, and although recent work has illustrated the important influence of broad-scale ecological patterns and processes on amphibian populations, little is known about the factors structuring amphibian communities in urban landscapes. We therefore examined amphibian community responses to wetland habitat availability and landscape characteristics along an urban-rural gradient in central Iowa, USA, a region experiencing rapid suburban growth. We conducted call surveys at 61 wetlands to estimate anuran calling activity, and quantified wetland habitat structure and landscape context. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to examine patterns in anuran community structure and identify the most important variables associated with those patterns. Urban density at the landscape scale had a significant negative influence on overall anuran abundance and diversity. While every species exhibited a decrease in abundance with increasing urban density, this pattern was especially pronounced for species requiring post-breeding upland habitats. Anurans most affected by urbanization were those associated with short hydroperiods, early breeding activity, and substantial upland habitat use. We suggest that broad-scale landscape fragmentation is an important factor underlying anuran community structure in this region, possibly due to limitations on the accessibility of otherwise suitable habitat in fragmented urban landscapes. This study underscores the importance of a regional approach to amphibian conservation in urban and urbanizing areas; in fragmented landscapes, a network of interconnected wetland and upland habitats may be more likely to support a successful, diverse anuran community than will isolated sites.     

Managing plant population spread: prediction and analysis using a simple model

Models can be used to direct the management of population spread for the control of invasives or to encourage species of conservation value. Analytical models are attractive because of their theoretical basis and limited data requirements, but there is concern that their simplicity may limit their practical utility. We address the applied use of simple models in a study of a declining annual herb, Rhinanthus minor. We parameterized a population-spread model using field data on demography and dispersal for four management systems: grazed only (GR), hay-cut once (H1), hay-cut twice (H2), and hay-cut with autumn grazing (HG). Within a replicated experiment we measured spread rates of introduced R. minor populations over eight years. The modeled and measured spread rates were very similar in terms of both patterns of management effects and absolute values, so that in both cases HG > H2, H1 > GR. The treatments affected both dispersal and demography (establishment and survival) and so we used decomposition approaches to analyze the major causes of differences in population spread. Increased dispersal under hay-cutting was more important than demographic changes and accounted for approximately 70% of the differences in spread rate between the hay-cut and grazed-only treatments. Furthermore, management effects on the tail of the dispersal curve were by far the most critical in governing spread. This study suggests that simple models can be used to inform practical conservation management, and we demonstrate straightforward uses of our model to predict the impacts of different management strategies. While simple models can give accurate projections, we emphasize that they must be parameterized with high-quality data gathered at the appropriate spatial scale.     

Fluid dynamics at the margin of rotational control

Geophysicists have developed a perspective on the dynamical influence of Earth’s rotation, while most other areas of fluid dynamics can safely disregard rotation. In this essay the dominant turbulence and wave behaviors in the rotating and non-rotating fluid-dynamical realms are described, and particular attention is given to their borderlands, where rotational influences are significant but not dominant. Contrary to the inverse energy cascade of geostrophic turbulence toward larger scales, a forward energy cascade toward microscale dissipation develops within the borderlands from the breakdown of diagnostic force balances, frontogenesis, and frontal instabilities, and then it continues further through the small-scale non-rotating realm until it dissipates at the microscale.     

Generation of internal waves by sheared turbulence: experiments

A series of experiments is presented that model the generation of internal gravity waves in the ocean by the forcing of turbulent eddies in the surface mixed layer.The experimental setup consists of a shallow mixed upper layer and a deep continuously stratified lower layer. A source of turbulence is dragged through the upper layer. Internal waves can freely propagate in the lower layer. The internal waves are measured using synthetic schlieren to determine the frequencies of the generated waves. Consistent with other studies, it is found that the characteristic frequencies of internal waves generated by turbulence are an approximate constant fraction of the buoyancy frequency.     

Driver Injury Risk Variability in Finite Element Reconstructions of Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: A 3-phase real-world motor vehicle crash (MVC) reconstruction method was developed to analyze injury variability as a function of precrash occupant position for 2 full-frontal Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases.

Method: Phase I: A finite element (FE) simplified vehicle model (SVM) was developed and tuned to mimic the frontal crash characteristics of the CIREN case vehicle (Camry or Cobalt) using frontal New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) crash test data. Phase II: The Toyota HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) v4.01 was positioned in 120 precrash configurations per case within the SVM. Five occupant positioning variables were varied using a Latin hypercube design of experiments: seat track position, seat back angle, D-ring height, steering column angle, and steering column telescoping position. An additional baseline simulation was performed that aimed to match the precrash occupant position documented in CIREN for each case. Phase III: FE simulations were then performed using kinematic boundary conditions from each vehicle's event data recorder (EDR). HIC15, combined thoracic index (CTI), femur forces, and strain-based injury metrics in the lung and lumbar vertebrae were evaluated to predict injury.

Results: Tuning the SVM to specific vehicle models resulted in close matches between simulated and test injury metric data, allowing the tuned SVM to be used in each case reconstruction with EDR-derived boundary conditions. Simulations with the most rearward seats and reclined seat backs had the greatest HIC15, head injury risk, CTI, and chest injury risk. Calculated injury risks for the head, chest, and femur closely correlated to the CIREN occupant injury patterns. CTI in the Camry case yielded a 54% probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ chest injury in the baseline case simulation and ranged from 34 to 88% (mean = 61%) risk in the least and most dangerous occupant positions. The greater than 50% probability was consistent with the case occupant's AIS 2 hemomediastinum. Stress-based metrics were used to predict injury to the lower leg of the Camry case occupant. The regional-level injury metrics evaluated for the Cobalt case occupant indicated a low risk of injury; however, strain-based injury metrics better predicted pulmonary contusion. Approximately 49% of the Cobalt occupant's left lung was contused, though the baseline simulation predicted 40.5% of the lung to be injured.

Conclusions: A method to compute injury metrics and risks as functions of precrash occupant position was developed and applied to 2 CIREN MVC FE reconstructions. The reconstruction process allows for quantification of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the injury risk predictions based on occupant position to further understand important factors that lead to more severe MVC injuries.     

Amount or pattern? Grassland responses to the heterogeneity and availability of two key resources

Patterns of resource availability and heterogeneity shape the composition, productivity, and dynamics of plant assemblages in a wide variety of terrestrial ecosystems. Despite this, the responses of plant assemblages to simultaneous changes in the availability and heterogeneity of more than a single resource are virtually unknown. To fill this gap, microcosms consisting of assemblages formed by Lolium perenne, Plantago lanceolata, Anthoxantum odoratum, Holcus lanatus, and Trifolium repens were grown in a factorial experiment with the following treatments: nutrient availability (NA), water availability (WA), spatial nutrient heterogeneity (NH), and temporal water heterogeneity (WH). Assemblages exhibited precise root foraging patterns in response to nutrient heterogeneity, which were modified by NA and WA. A series of two- and three-way interactions involving the four factors evaluated determined biomass production, the belowground: aboveground biomass ratio, the patterns of root biomass allocation with depth, and the relative contribution to aboveground biomass of Lolium and Anthoxanthum. In all cases, these interactions explained significant amounts of the variation found in the data. Our study demonstrates that considering the interactions between resource availability and heterogeneity allows for a refinement of predictions that can detectably reduce the error associated with extrapolating from single factor analyses.     

Dune vegetation fertilization by nesting sea turtles

Sea turtle nesting presents a potential pathway to subsidize nutrient-poor dune ecosystems, which provide the nesting habitat for sea turtles. To assess whether this positive feedback between dune plants and turtle nests exists, we measured N concentration and delta15N values in dune soils, leaves from a common dune plant (sea oats [Uniola paniculata]), and addled eggs of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) across a nesting gradient (200-1050 nests/km) along a 40.5-km stretch of beach in east central Florida, USA. The delta15N levels were higher in loggerhead than green turtle eggs, denoting the higher trophic level of loggerhead turtles. Soil N concentration and delta15N values were both positively correlated to turtle nest density. Sea oat leaf tissue delta15N was also positively correlated to nest density, indicating an increased use of augmented marine-based nutrient sources. Foliar N concentration was correlated with delta15N, suggesting that increased nutrient availability from this biogenic vector may enhance the vigor of dune vegetation, promoting dune stabilization and preserving sea turtle nesting habitat.     

Disease prevention and resistance in social insects: modeling the survival consequences of immunity,hygienic behavior,and colony organization

Understanding the origin of disease resistance in social insects is difficult due to the lack of well-established phylogenies of presocial and eusocial species and the absence of extant basal and intermediate forms. Moreover, comprehensive accounts of infection-control traits in social insect lineages are not available. Therefore, to explore the evolution of pathogen control in social insects we used cellular automata models to analyze the efficacy of immunity and nest hygiene, which we assumed were basal traits, and allogrooming, which likely followed the transition to eusociality, and their interactions with colony demography and patterns of worker spatial distribution. Models showed that nest hygiene provided an immediate survival benefit and that immunity lowered overall disease susceptibility under both constant and periodic exposure scenarios. Allogrooming increased survivorship in chronically challenged colonies but also increased pathogen transmission rates under conditions of periodic exposure. Colonies having demographies biased towards young or old individuals had slightly higher mortality than those with heterogeneous demographies. The distribution of older individuals relative to the nest center had no significant effect on susceptibility and provided only a minor survival advantage. Models indicated that nest hygiene and immunity function on different temporal scales and can interact with demography to lower disease risks. Our results suggest how infection control systems in social insects could have been built upon the inducible immune defenses and nest hygienic behaviors of solitary and presocial ancestors and served as important preadaptations to manage disease exposure and transmission in colonies of eusocial species.     

A comparative analysis of the psychosocial impacts of waste disposal facilities

This paper reports the results of a comparative analysis of the psychosocial impacts of municipal solid waste disposal facilities (both landfills and incinerators) in six communities in the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia, Canada. Telephone surveys were administered to random samples of residents living around each facility between 1990 and 1995 (total n=1203). The results of logistic regression analyses show that type of facility was the strongest predictor of residents' awareness, concern, and actions taken in response to site concerns. Essentially, residents living in close proximity to a landfill had a higher probability of reporting awareness, concern or actions than residents living around an incinerator site. There was little evidence of differences in reactions between Ontario and British Columbia (BC) residents, despite variations in provincial policies on waste disposal. The effects of other predictors, with the exception of involvement in the local community, were not consistent, supporting previous findings that the determinants of facility impacts are outcome‐specific. It is essential that environmental managers take this constellation of factors into account in the operation of existing, or siting of new, facilities.