The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

A structural equation model analysis of postfire plant diversity in California shrublands.

This study investigates patterns of plant diversity following wildfires in fire-prone shrublands of California, seeks to understand those patterns in terms of both local and landscape factors, and considers the implications for fire management. Ninety study sites were established following extensive wildfires in 1993, and 1000-m(2) plots were used to sample a variety of parameters. Data on community responses were collected for five years following fire. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to relate plant species richness to plant abundance, fire severity, abiotic conditions, within-plot heterogeneity, stand age, and position in the landscape. Temporal dynamics of average richness response was also modeled. Richness was highest in the first year following fire, indicating postfire enhancement of diversity. A general decline in richness over time was detected, with year-to-year variation attributable to annual variations in precipitation. Peak richness in the landscape was found where (1) plant abundance was moderately high, (2) within-plot heterogeneity was high, (3) soils were moderately low in nitrogen, high in sand content, and with high rock cover, (4) fire severity was low, and (5) stands were young prior to fire. Many of these characteristics were correlated with position in the landscape and associated conditions. We infer from the SEM results that postfire richness in this system is strongly influenced by local conditions and that these conditions are, in turn, predictably related to landscape-level conditions. For example, we observed that older stands of shrubs were characterized by more severe fires, which were associated with a low recovery of plant cover and low richness. These results may have implications for the use of prescribed fire in this system if these findings extrapolate to prescribed burns as we would expect.     

Trail following in ants: individual properties determine population behaviour

This paper deals with the purposeful marking of trails as a mechanism for coordinating movement. Patterns of motion are adapted to the environmental conditions, the functions to be carried out, and the condition of the organism; therefore, the networks of trails must change both quantitatively and qualitatively over time. The nature of such changes, and how they are controlled at the individual level are discussed. In particular, we show that slight modulations in individual traits, in the trail marker, or in the size of the group can account for major changes in movement patterns at the population level such as abrupt transitions from diffuse area-covering networks to focused trunk trails. Using a mathematical model and computer (cellular automata) simulation we show that trunk trails carrying a high density of traffic can form spontaneously under suitable conditions from an initially randomly distributed group. The key to this self-organizing property stems from interactions between individuals that lead to a collective effect in recruitment to trails: the influence of small groups of individuals increases rapidly with group size. The dichotomy between high traffic (strong) trunk trails versus diffuse (weak) networks is discussed.     

Effects of wastewater disinfection on waterborne bacteria and viruses.

Wastewater disinfection is practiced with the goal of reducing risks of human exposure to pathogenic microorganisms. In most circumstances, the efficacy of a wastewater disinfection process is regulated and monitored based on measurements of the responses of indicator bacteria. However, inactivation of indicator bacteria does not guarantee an acceptable degree of inactivation among other waterborne microorganisms (e.g., microbial pathogens). Undisinfected effluent samples from several municipal wastewater treatment facilities were collected for analysis. Facilities were selected to provide a broad spectrum of effluent quality, particularly as related to nitrogenous compounds. Samples were subjected to bench-scale chlorination and dechlorination and UV irradiation under conditions that allowed compliance with relevant discharge regulations and such that disinfectant exposures could be accurately quantified. Disinfected samples were subjected to a battery of assays to assess the immediate and long-term effects of wastewater disinfection on waterborne bacteria and viruses. In general, (viable) bacterial populations showed an immediate decline as a result of disinfectant exposure; however, incubation of disinfected samples under conditions that were designed to mimic the conditions in a receiving stream resulted in substantial recovery of the total bacterial community. The bacterial groups that are commonly used as indicators do not provide an accurate representation of the response of the bacterial community to disinfectant exposure and subsequent recovery in the environment. UV irradiation and chlorination/dechlorination both accomplished measurable inactivation of indigenous phage; however, the extent of inactivation was fairly modest under the conditions of disinfection used in this study. UV irradiation was consistently more effective as a virucide than chlorination/dechlorination under the conditions of application, based on measurements of virus (phage) diversity and concentration. Taken together, and when considered in conjunction with previously published research, the results of these experiments illustrate several important limitations of common disinfection processes as applied in the treatment of municipal wastewaters. In general, it is not clear that conventional disinfection processes, as commonly implemented, are effective for control of the risks of disease transmission, particularly those associated with viral pathogens. Microbial quality in receiving streams may not be substantially improved by the application of these disinfection processes; under some circumstances, an argument can be made that disinfection may actually yield a decrease in effluent and receiving water quality. Decisions regarding the need for effluent disinfection must account for site-specific characteristics, but it is not clear that disinfection of municipal wastewater effluents is necessary or beneficial for all facilities. When direct human contact or ingestion of municipal wastewater effluents is likely, disinfection may be necessary. Under these circumstances, UV irradiation appears to be superior to chlorination in terms of microbial quality and chemistry and toxicology. This advantage is particularly evident in effluents that contain appreciable quantities of ammonia-nitrogen or organic nitrogen.     

Determination of toxic cyclic heptapeptides by liquid chromatography with detection using ultra-violet, protein phosphatase assay and tandem mass spectrometry

Microcystins, toxic cyclic heptapeptides and nodularin-R, a toxic cyclic pentapeptide, were determined using liquid chromatography (LC) with detection using photo-diode array ultra-violet (PDA-UV) and protein phosphatase (PP) assay. Positive fractions were analysed for toxins using collision-induced dissociation (CID) and tandem MS/MS experiments which were carried out simultaneously using electrospray ion-trap instrumentation. Reversed-phase liquid chromatography (LC) using an acetonitrile/water gradient was used for the LC-MS(2) determination of six microcystins standards and nodularin. The molecular related ion species, [M+H](+)([M+2H](2+) in the case of MC-RR), were used as the precursor ions for MS(2) experiments. Optimum calibration and reproducibility data were obtained for MC-LR using LC-MS(2); 0.1-5.0 microg/ml, r2 = 0.992 (n = 3); % RSD < or =7.3 at 0.25 microg MC-LR/ml (n = 3). The detection limit (S/N = 3) was better than 0.1 ng. Water samples for microcystin analysis were first screened using protein phosphatase (PP) assays and positives were concentrated using C-18 solid-phase extraction. The developed method was applied to examine a lake in Ireland contaminated by Microcystis sp. and MC-LR and MC-LA were identified.     

Sequestration of priority pollutant PAHs from sediment pore water employing semipermeable membrane devices

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were employed to sample sediment pore water in static exposure studies under controlled laboratory conditions using (control pond and formulated) sediments fortified with 15 priority pollutant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPPAHs). The sediment fortification level of 750 ng/g was selected on the basis of what might be detected in a sediment sample from a contaminated area. The sampling interval consisted of 0, 4, 7, 14, and 28 days for each study. The analytical methodologies, as well as the extraction and sample cleanup procedures used in the isolation, characterization, and quantitation of 15 PPPAHs at different fortification levels in SPMDs, water, and sediment were reported previously (Williamson, M.S. Thesis, University of Missouri-Columbia, USA; Williamson et al., Chemosphere (This issue--PII: S0045-6535(02)00394-6)) and used for this project. Average (mean) extraction recoveries for each PPPAH congener in each matrix are reported and discussed. No procedural blank extracts (controls) were found to contain any PPPAH residues above the method quantitation limit, therefore, no matrix interferences were detected. The focus of this publication is to demonstrate the ability to sequester environmental contaminants, specifically PPPAHs, from sediment pore water using SPMDs and two different types of fortified sediment.     

Risk to breeding success of waterbirds by contaminants in Hong Kong: evidence from trace elements in eggs

Concentrations of 17 trace elements (As, Se, Rb, Sr, Ag, Sb, Cs, Tl, Pb, V, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Hg) were determined in eggs of little egrets (Egretta garzetta), black-crowned night herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and bridled terns (Sterna anaethetus) from northwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Hong Kong. Results indicated significant differences among the three species. Eggs of little egrets and black-crowned night herons appeared to be good bioindicators for monitoring selected elements (As, Pb, Zn Cr, Cu, and V) due to consistent correlations between metal concentrations in eggs and those in coastal marine sediments. Based on limited toxicological information, the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) of Hg and Se in the bird eggs were estimated as 0.5 to 1.8 and 0.90 to 1.45 mug g(-1), dry wt., respectively. Hazard quotients (HQs) indicated that Hg and Se might pose some risk to certain waterbirds in Hong Kong.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls in Narragansett Bay surface sediments

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were evaluated in 41 surface sediments collected from Narragansett Bay, RI in 1997-1998. Highest concentrations of total PCBs (1760 ng/g) were in rivers at the head of the bay and the values decreased southward toward the mouth of the bay, with elevated concentrations in some of the coves. The PCB levels in approximately 43% of the samples exceeded the effects range median (ERM) guideline [Environ. Manage. 19 (1995) 81] indicating possible adverse biological effects at these stations. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the surface sediment PCBs separated the Taunton River samples from the rest of the samples. This result suggests that this river has a different PCB composition and sources than the other areas investigated. It also showed that this river has a limited influence on other bay stations as the adjacent samples downstream did not have the same chemical signature. Congener ratios derived from the PCA were useful in distinguishing stations that had different sources of PCBs than the bulk of the bay sediments. Although Aroclor 1268 and 1270 accounted for <1% of all PCB production, their major components, CB206 and CB209, account for 3-6% of the CBs in most bay samples. This may reflect more local use of these Aroclor mixtures and/or be indicative of their relative stability, compared to less chlorinated mixtures. Using linear alkyl benzenes (LABs) as a marker for sewage derived PCBs suggested that up to 95% of the PCBs at the most contaminated sites in the Seekonk, Providence, and Taunton Rivers were sewage derived. This analysis also showed that there is a high background level (167 ng/g) of PCBs in the Seekonk and Providence River, while the Taunton River had a relatively low background level (23.7 ng/g). At the furthest stations south in the Providence River, the sewage derived PCBs only accounted for 23% of the total which suggests that PCB associated with sewage particles are rapidly deposited and are therefore not the most significant source of these compounds to the lower reaches of Narragansett Bay.