影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平评估

在文献「１」研究的基础上,探讨了热带气旋频数预测水平的评估方法,定义了三个更适合于评估每年热带气旋预测性能的参数,对影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平进行了评估,并与“九五”攻关前的业务预测性进行了比较。     

基于SHERPA的环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估

分析了SHERPA综合评价模型的基本原理和主要建模理念,重点介绍了其在环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估方面的作用,以及在排放源与受体关系(SRR)方面的处理方法,比较了其与欧盟常用的其他情景模拟模型的优缺点。SHERPA模型的特点是空间灵活性较好,对于任何给定地点,可以快速评估不同地区对该研究地点空气质量的影响。SHERPA模型的3个主要功能为污染物来源分析、决策支持和情景模拟。基于SHERPA模型对法国环境空气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和NO_2年均浓度进行污染来源分析、决策支持分析和减排情景模拟评估,展示了模型在环境治理措施优先级筛选和政府间联合治理措施协调建议方面的功能和作用,以期为中国环境空气质量预测预报、环境质量管理措施的制定和成效评估等环境服务与管理工作提供借鉴。     

生态工程建设背景下贵州高原的植被变化及影响因素分析

基于MODIS-NDVI和气象数据,运用趋势分析、偏相关分析和残差分析等方法,对生态工程建设背景下贵州高原的植被变化及影响因素进行分析,并定量探讨气候因素与人类活动对植被变化的影响。结果表明：(1)2000~2016年期间,贵州高原植被NDVI在空间上呈东高西低的分布特征,高值分布于野生动植物及自然保护区等,低值分布于湿地保护工程区。NDVI总体呈上升趋势,湿地保护工程区、退耕还林工程区等植被覆盖上升速率较快,野生动植物及自然保护区呈略微的下降趋势。(2)植被改善区域(83.74%)分布于研究区边缘及西北部,退化区域(16.26%)分布于研究区中部和东南部,其中退耕还林还草工程区植被改善最为明显,野生动植物保护及自然保护区和速生丰产工程区改善效果较差。(3)从气侯因素分析来看,气温和降水在总体上与NDVI均呈正相关,气温对贵州高原植被生长的影响大于降水。(4) 从人类活动分析来看,人类活动对植被的建设作用强于破坏作用,人类活动正作用（76.68%）主要分布于西北部,负作用（23.32%）集中分布于东南部。植被覆盖增加是气候因素和人类活动共同作用的结果,人类活动对植被的贡献率为75.53%,气候因素为24.47%。     

The determination and matching analysis of pinch point temperature difference in evaporator and condenser of organic rankine cycle for mixed working fluid

Exergo-economic analysis of the pinch point temperature difference (PPTD) in both evaporator and condenser of sub-critical organic Rankine cycle system (ORCs) are performed based on the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Taking mixture R13I1/R601a as a working fluid and the annual total cost per net output power Z as exergo-economic performance evaluation criterion, the effects of PPTD in evaporator ΔT_e, and the PPTD ratio of condenser to evaporator y, on the exergo-economic performance of ORCs are analyzed. Moreover, how some other parameters influence the optimal PPTD in evaporator ΔT_e,opt and the optimal PPTD ratio of condenser to evaporator y_opt are also discussed. It has been found that the exergo-economic performance of ORCs is remarkably influenced by ΔT_e and y, and there exists ΔT_e,opt and y_opt. In addition, ΔT_e,opt and y_opt are affected by heat transfer coefficient ratio of condenser to evaporator ß, the temperature of working fluid at dew point in condenser T_1a, and composition of R13I1/R601a: larger ß and T_1a lead to lower ΔT_e,opt and y_opt; by contraries, larger mass fraction of R13I1 makes ΔT_e,opt and y_opt increase, and y_opt increases linearly. The effects of the temperature of working fluid at bubble point in evaporator T_3a, mass flow rate of exhaust flue gas m_g, and inlet temperature of exhaust flue gas T_gi on ΔT_e,opt and y_opt are very slight. For comparison, three additional working fluids, namely R601a, R245fa, and 0.32R245fa/0.68R601a, are also taken into account.     

Efficacy of Si fertilization to modulate the heavy metals absorption by barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and pea (Pisum sativum L.)

Silicon-based fertilizers and soil amendments can have direct and indirect positive influences on cultivated plants. The solid forms of Si-based substances, the most widespread in use, are efficient only at high application rates due to their low level of solubility. Several types of Si-based substances such as fumed silica, slags from the iron and steel industry, modified slags, and a Si-rich product were tested using barley and pea as silicon accumulative and non-accumulative plants, respectively, at two application rates. The plants were grown under toxic concentrations of heavy metals in a greenhouse. Si-rich materials high in water-soluble Si had a positive effect at both the low and high application rates, and for both plant species. This type of substance can be regarded as Si fertilizer, demonstrating greater efficiency at a low application rate and lessened efficiency at a high application rate for protection of the cultivated plants against accumulation of the heavy metals.

     

化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制的研究

我国的化工园区为促进经济和社会发展做出了重要贡献。由于化工园区内危险化学品种类多、有毒有害物质数量大、环境风险等级高,存在着发生重特大事故的现实性和可能性。但是,我国至今尚未制定化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制技术规范,相关研究也未见报道。在当前化工园区安全生产事件高发并严重影响周边环境的情况下,研究化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制方法,提高应对安全生产事故以及次生突发环境事件的能力尤为重要。通过分析化工园区环境风险物质、环境风险工艺和环境风险受体三个方面的环境风险的特性,初步拟定了化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制调查评估、建章立制、预案编写三个阶段的技术路线,明确了开展环境风险评估、加强应急能力建设、完善环境风险防范措施和环境应急处置措施的四项编制要点,在此基础上提出了化工园区突发环境事件应急预案由综合预案、现场处置预案、专项预案、环境风险评估报告、环境应急资源调查报告六部分组成的结构框架。     

Effects of aeration frequency on leachate quality and waste in simulated hybrid bioreactor landfills

Research has been conducted to investigate the effects of daily aeration frequency on leachate quality and waste settlement in simulated hybrid landfill bioreactors. Four laboratory-scale reactors were constructed and operated for about 10 months to simulate different bioreactor operations, including one anaerobic bioreactor and three hybrid bioreactors with different aeration frequencies (one, two, and four times per day). Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) reduced more than 96% of the initial concentrations in all aerated bioreactors. The differences of COD and BOD₅ reductions among tested aeration frequencies were relatively small. For ammonia nitrogen, the higher aeration frequency (two or four times per day) resulted in the quicker reduction. Overall, the concentrations of heavy metals (Cr, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn) decreased over time except Cd and Pb. The reduction of redox-sensitive metal concentrations (Mn, Co, Ni, and Cu) was greater in aerated bioreactors than in anaerobic bioreactor. Settlement of municipal solid waste (MSW) was enhanced with higher frequency of aeration events (four times per day).

Implications: In recent years, hybird bioreactor landfill technology has gained a lot of attention. Appropriate aeration rate is crucial for hybrid bioreactor operation, but few studies have been done and different results were obtained. Research was conducted to investigate the effects of daily aeration frequency on leachate quality and waste settlement. Results indicated that aeration can effectively accelerate waste stabilization and remove organic carbon concentration and total nitrogen in the leachate.     

陕西省油松混交林木质残体储量与腐烂特征

木质残体是油松针阔混交林的重要组成部分,具有多种的生态功能,对生态系统的稳定和发展有着不可忽视的作用。以陕西省黄龙山林区为研究区域,设置1 hm2(100 m×100 m)的固定样地,研究典型油松针阔混交林木质残体的储量组成、优势树种的空间关系、腐烂特征及密度与含水量,研究结果表明:(1)研究区油松针阔混交林内木质残体的总储量为10.73 t·hm–2,倒木是林分内木质残体的主要来源。在径级组成结构上,径级20 cm以上的木质残体储量占总储量的绝大部分。腐烂等级中,以腐烂等级Ⅱ与腐烂等级Ⅲ的木质残体贮量最多;(2)利用线性模型模拟该林分木质残体的分解密度与含水量,其拟合结果显示木质残体的密度随着腐烂等级的增加而呈现下降趋势,而含水量则随着腐烂等级的增加而呈现升高的趋势;(3)林分内主要研究树种(油松、白桦和山杨)之间在小空间尺度上呈负关联,大尺度下呈正关联,顶级树种与先锋树种间达到互利共生,群落具有较大稳定性。林分内种间竞争的结果将为地带性顶级树种油松代替白桦与山杨等先锋树种。天然油松针阔混交林木质残体的贮量组成及腐烂特征反映了该区森林群落演替后期阶段木质残体的结构特征,本文的研究结果为我国黄土高原针阔混交林生态系统的管理和保护以及可持续经营提供科学依据。     

基于GEV干旱指数和DFA方法的苏北地区季节性干旱研究

为分析近年来江苏省苏北地区季节性干旱灾害特征,利用苏北五市1989~2013年的逐月降水量资料,建立月降水量的广义极值分布函数,通过分析广义极值干旱指数(GEVI),研究苏北五市近25a的季节性干旱分布和干旱等级的时空变化特点。在此基础上,利用去趋势波动分析方法(DFA)对苏北五市月平均降水量的周期性规律进行研究。结果表明,苏北五市的月降水量均服从广义极值Fréchet概率分布,且具有从西北(徐州)地区向东南沿海(盐城)地区递增的空间分布特征,整体上属于干旱灾害频发的地区,且以轻旱为主且季节性特征明显。苏北五市的月降水量存在幂律相关性,即降水量具有较强的正长程相关性,因此,未来苏北地区干旱的总体趋势将与过去特征正相关。     

贵州省三岔河流域水化学特征及其控制因素

对乌江源区三岔河流域枯水期和丰水期河水样品离子浓度及组成特征分析表明,河水主要的阴阳离子分别是HCO_3~–和Ca~(2+),分别占到总阴离子量的55%和总阳离子量的70%,与喀斯特地区流域相似。主要离子的时空分布的对比分析表明,Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、Na~+、HCO_3~–、Cl~–枯水期浓度略高于丰水期,而K+、SO_4~(2–)、NO_3~–两期浓度变化相对较小;空间分布的多样化,反映了不同小流域在地质背景、生态环境、人为活动等方面的差异对河水离子的影响。通过Gibbs图分析表明,研究区河水水化学主要受到岩石风化的影响,通过阴阳离子三角图分析表明,研究区河水水化学主要受到碳酸岩盐的影响,并且硫酸广泛参与到岩石风化中,人为活动对流域水化学组成也有一定影响。