Gray Whales and the Value of Monitoring Data in Implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Abstract: Many scientists lament the absence of data for endangered species and argue that more funds should be spent acquiring basic information about population trends. Using 19 years of abundance estimates for the eastern North Pacific gray whale ( Eschrichtius robustus ), we sampled subsets of the original survey data to identify the number of years of data required to remove the population from the U.S. Endangered Species Act's (ESA) list of endangered and threatened wildlife. For any given duration of monitoring, we selected all possible combinations of consecutive counts. To incorporate variability in growth rates, we extracted a maximum likelihood estimator of growth rate and confidence interval about that growth rate on the assumption that the population changes can be approximated by a simple diffusion process with drift. We then applied a new approach to determine ESA status for each subset of survey data and found that a quantitative decision to delist is unambiguously supported by 11 years of data but is precariously uncertain with fewer than 10 years of data. The data needed to produce an unequivocal decision to delist gray whales cost the National Marine Fisheries Service an estimated U.S. $660,000, a surprisingly modest expense given the fact that delisting can greatly simplify regulatory constraints. This example highlights the value of population monitoring in administering the ESA and provides a compelling example of the utility of such information in identifying both imperiled and recovered species. The economic value of such data is that they provide the foundation for delisting, which could ultimately save much more money than the collection of the data would ever cost.     

Predicting [corrected] extinction risk in spite of predator-prey oscillations.

Most population viability analyses (PVA) assume that the effects of species interactions are subsumed by population-level parameters. We examine how robust five commonly used PVA models are to violations of this assumption. We develop a stochastic, stage-structured predator-prey model and simulate prey population vital rates and abundance. We then use simulated data to parameterize and estimate risk for three demographic models (static projection matrix, stochastic projection matrix, stochastic vital rate matrix) and two time series models (diffusion approximation [DA], corrupted diffusion approximation [CDA]). Model bias is measured as the absolute deviation between estimated and observed quasi-extinction risk. Our results highlight three generalities about the application of single-species models to multi-species conservation problems. First, our collective model results suggest that most single-species PVA models overestimate extinction risk when species interactions cause periodic variation in abundance. Second, the DA model produces the most (conservatively) biased risk forecasts. Finally, the CDA model is the most robust PVA to population cycles caused by species interactions. CDA models produce virtually unbiased and relatively precise risk estimates even when populations cycle strongly. High performance of simple time series models like the CDA owes to their ability to effectively partition stochastic and deterministic sources of variation in population abundance.     

Climate change and the growth of the livestock sector in developing countries

Livestock production systems will inevitably be affected as a result of changes in climate and climate variability, with impacts on peoples’ livelihoods. At the same time, livestock food chains are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture and livestock in particular will need to play a greater role than they have hitherto in reducing emissions in the future. Adaptation and mitigation may require significant changes in production technology and farming systems, which could affect productivity. Given what is currently known about the likely impacts on livestock systems, however, the costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change in the aggregate may not represent an enormous constraint to the growth of the global livestock sector, in its bid to meet increasing demand for livestock products. Different livestock systems have different capacities to adapt or to take on board the policy and regulatory changes that may be required in the future. Vulnerability of households dependent on livestock, particularly in the drier areas of developing countries, is likely to increase substantially, with concomitant impacts on poverty and inequity. The capacity of these systems to adapt and to yield up their carbon sequestration potential deserves considerable further study. Comprehensive frameworks need to be developed to assess impacts and trade-offs, in order to identify and target adaptation and mitigation options that are appropriate for specific contexts, and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to poverty alleviation and economic development.     

Five approaches to producing actionable science in conservation

The knowledge produced by conservation scientists must be actionable in order to address urgent conservation challenges. To understand the process of creating actionable science, we interviewed 71 conservation scientists who had participated in 1 of 3 fellowship programs focused on training scientists to become agents of change. Using a grounded theory approach, we identified 16 activities that these researchers employed to make their scientific products more actionable. Some activities were more common than others and, arguably, more foundational. We organized these activities into 3 nested categories (motivations, strategies, and tactics). Using a co-occurrence matrix, we found that most activities were positively correlated. These correlations allowed us to identify 5 approaches, framed as profiles, to actionable science: the discloser, focused on open access; the educator, focused on science communication; the networker, focused on user needs and building relationships; the collaborator, focused on boundary spanning; and the pluralist, focused on knowledge coproduction resulting in valuable outcomes for all parties. These profiles build on one another in a hierarchy determined by their complexity and level of engagement, their potential to support actionable science, and their proximity to ideal coproduction with knowledge users. Our results provide clear guidance for conservation scientists to generate actionable science to address the global biodiversity conservation challenge.     

Aligning the logics of inquiry and action to address the biodiversity crisis

Despite an abundance of research reaffirming biodiversity's importance to the health of the planet and society, species continue to go extinct at an alarming rate. Why has continued research on the value of biodiversity not had the intended effect and what can be done about it? We considered biodiversity loss as a public value failure and the result of a misalignment between the logic of inquiry (which guides scientists) and the logic of action (which guides practitioners). We drew lessons from our own research to propose the creation of a national biodiversity strategy designed to link the logic of inquiry with the logic of action and coordinate the production of actionable conservation science and informed conservation action.     

How career orientation shapes the job satisfaction–turnover intention link

This study examined the impact of career orientation on the static and dynamic relationships between job satisfaction and turnover intention. Longitudinal data of 255 employees were collected at three waves of measurement 1 year apart. Results for career orientations as a moderator differed between the static and dynamic job satisfaction–turnover links. The static relationship was found to be similar and less negative for employees with independent and loyalty‐focused career orientations than for promotion‐focused and disengaged employees. Regarding the dynamic relationship between job satisfaction change and turnover intention change, however, independent and loyalty‐focused employees differed: An increase (decline) in job satisfaction was more strongly related to a decline (increase) in turnover intention for independent employees than for loyalty‐focused employees. These findings provide new insights into the differential dynamics involved in assessing work situations and responding to them based on different career aspirations and interests. Consequences for research and practice regarding more effective human resource management are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The horizontal reactive media treatment well (HRX Well®) for passive in situ remediation: Design,implementation, and sustainability considerations

A new in situ remediation concept termed a Horizontal Reactive Media Treatment Well (HRX Well^®) is presented that utilizes a horizontal well filled with reactive media to passively treat contaminated groundwater in situ. The approach involves the use of a large‐diameter directionally drilled horizontal well filled with solid reactive media installed parallel to the direction of groundwater flow. The engineered contrast in hydraulic conductivity between the high in‐well reactive media and the ambient aquifer hydraulic conductivity results in the passive capture, treatment, and discharge back to the aquifer of proportionally large volumes of groundwater. Capture and treatment widths of up to tens of feet can be achieved for many aquifer settings, and reductions in downgradient concentrations and contaminant mass flux are nearly immediate. Many different types of solid‐phase reactive treatment media are already available (zero valent iron, granular activated carbon, biodegradable particulate organic matter, slow‐release oxidants, ion exchange resins, zeolite, apatite, etc.). Therefore, this concept could be used to address a wide range of contaminants. Laboratory and pilot‐scale test results and numerical flow and transport model simulations are presented that validate the concept. The HRX Well can access contaminants not accessible by conventional vertical drilling and requires no aboveground treatment or footprint and requires limited ongoing maintenance. A focused feasibility evaluation and alternatives analysis highlights the potential cost and sustainability advantages of the HRX Well compared to groundwater extraction and treatment systems or funnel and gate permeable reactive barrier technologies for long‐term plume treatment. This paper also presents considerations for design and implementation for a planned upcoming field installation.     

Including risk in stated-preference economic valuations: Experiments on choices for marine recreation

Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations.     

Patterns of organic osmolytes in two marine bivalves, Macoma balthica, and Mytilus spp., along their European distribution

Patterns of nine intracellular free amino acids (FAA), which are utilized as organic osmolytes for salinity-induced cell volume regulation in marine osmoconformers, were compared in five Macoma balthica populations and seven Mytilus spp. populations along their European distribution. Three types of FAA patterns were classified within both taxa: a northern Baltic type, a southern Baltic type and an Atlantic/Mediterranean type which mainly differ regarding the share of alanine and taurine. Differences are discussed in relation to habitat salinity and population genetics. Along a salinity gradient, the total size of the intracellular FAA pool did not differ between sympatric M. balthica and Mytilus spp., and was significantly correlated with habitat osmolality in a range from 70 to 600 mmol kg⁻¹ H₂O (oligohaline to mesohaline) in both bivalves. In M. balthica, this correlation was mainly based on significant correlations of alanine (15–100 mmol kg⁻¹ DW), glycine (30–100 mmol kg⁻¹ DW) and taurine (0–70 mmol kg⁻¹ DW) with habitat osmolality. In Mytilus spp., only glycine (25–100 mmol kg⁻¹ DW) and taurine (4–180 mmol kg⁻¹ DW) were significantly correlated with habitat osmolality. The concentration of alanine was three times lower in Mytilus spp. than in M. balthica and did not correlate with habitat osmolality. Within a habitat osmolality range from 600 to 1,100 mmol kg⁻¹ H₂O (mesohaline to marine) the concentration of FAA remained constant in both taxa. It is suggested that under marine conditions additional organic osmolytes must become more important for cell volume regulation in Macoma and Mytilus.