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961.
C. B. Vreugdenhil 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2002,38(4):1083-1095
ABSTRACT: Over the last 20 years, our possibilities to model river flows numerically have increased enormously. In this paper, the question is addressed whether a more sophisticated model is always better than a simpler one. Increased detail, both in finer resolution and in physical processes taken into account, has its price in more computer time, higher data need, and perhaps more unknown coefficients to be calibrated. Moreover, uncertainty in actual physical conditions (e.g., bottom roughness), inflow and parameters remains, which may dominate the uncertainty of the results. Also, the questions asked by a decision maker may not always be very precise. For a schematic but relevant example, we show that a better model does not necessarily give more reliable results because some of the basic uncertainties remain. It is concluded that we should use the simplest model that will answer the question as to the accuracy needed, taking into account uncertainties in the data 相似文献
962.
Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers. 相似文献
963.
William B. Kerfoot 《补救:环境净化治理成本、技术与工艺杂志》1992,2(3):259-276
There have been more than 100,000 confirmed releases of petroleum from underground storage tanks (USTs) in the United States and its territories. The 10,000-gallon spill and cleanup of unleaded gasoline, detailed in this article, that occurred from 1988 to 1990 on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, illustrates the author's argument that electric pneumatic-hammer soil probes are the fastest, most convenient, and least costly way of performing the soil-gas surveys needed to locate spilled petroleum product, evaluate vapor intrusion into basements, and determine the extent of groundwater contamination for remediation purposes. Current state soil-gas requirements are also included. 相似文献
964.
965.
966.
Two studies were designed to test hypotheses derived from Locke's (1969, 1976, 1984) model of job satisfaction. Consistent with the model, both studies found that perceived have-want discrepancy scores were powerful predictors of facet job satisfaction. In addition, facet importance tended to moderate this relationship in the manner predicted by Locke. Workers who viewed a job facet as having high importance were more satisfied with a small perceived have-want discrepancy and more dissatisfied with a large discrepancy than workers who viewed the facet as having low importance. Finally, as expected, facet importance failed to moderate the relationship between facet satisfaction and overall job satisfaction. This finding supports Locke's proposition that facet satisfaction scores are ‘implicitly weighted’ by facet importance. Implications and directions for future research are discussed. 相似文献
967.
A “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI) resulting from an environmental assessment (EA) was reported by the US Army in
June 1986 for the construction and utilization of a multipurpose range complex (MPRC) at the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii.
There was little public response, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and state agencies were consulted and had few comments
concerning the results of the botanical surveys used in the assessment. Construction of the $24 million project was begun
in 1988. Near the end of construction in 1989 a lawsuit was filed to halt construction because an environmental impact statement
(EIS) had not been done for the project, and the plaintiff thought that significant damage had occurred to several unusual
ecosystems. Judgment was against the plaintiff and construction continued. An appeal was filed with the 9th Circuit Court.
As MPRC construction was nearly complete, and on advice of Department of Justice lawyers, the Department of Army agreed to
settle out of court. The settlement in part called for: (1) the plaintiff to drop the appeal and allow construction to be
completed as scheduled, and (2) the Department of Army to prepare an EIS for the operation of the MPRC. A subsequent botanical
survey for the EIS discovered one endangered plant species, four category 1 candidate plant species (taxa with sufficient
data to support listing as endangered or threatened), three category 2 candidate plant species (taxa with some evidence of
vulnerability but insufficient data to support listing at this time), one category 3a species (presumably extinct taxa), and
possibly three undescribed species growing within the MPRC boundary. The MPRC case study is an excellent example of why the
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) must be modified to require in-depth and thorough environmental surveys. 相似文献
968.
K.G. Willis G.B. Nelson A.B. Bye G. Peacock 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》1993,36(1):73-90
Financial returns can be deceptive as criteria upon which to make public decisions where outputs from proposed developments are subsidized, such as housing, or protected from imports, such as opencast coal mining. Removing subsidies and the effects of import restrictions suggests that the social benefits from these developments are much less than the financial benefits. Including externalities from the proposed developments on neighbouring householders, and preservation benefits from green belt land, estimated by contingent valuation methods, reveals that the social benefits from opencast coal mining are actually negative. 相似文献
969.
Heinz G. Stefan Eric B. Preud'homme 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1993,29(1):27-45
ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this procedure, linear relationships between stream temperatures, T, and air temperatures, Ta, recorded for 11 streams in the central U.S. (Mississippi River basin) were analyzed. Weather stations were an average 42 miles (range 0 to 144 miles) from the rivers. The general equations, Tw= 5.0 + 0.75 Ta and Tw= 2.9 + 0.86 Ta with temperatures in °C, were derived for daily and weekly water temperatures, respectively, for the 11 streams studied. The simulations had a standard deviation between measurements and predictions of 2.7°C (daily) and 2.1°C (weekly). Equations derived for each specific stream individually gave lower standard deviations, i.e., 2.1°C and 1.4°C, respectively. Small, shallow streams had smaller deviations than large, deep rivers. The measured water temperatures follow the air temperatures closely with some time lag. time lags ranged from hours to days, increasing with stream depth. Taking into account these time lags improved the daily temperature predictions slightly. Periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis. 相似文献
970.
In previous research on unemployment, conflicting evidence has been found for a ‘reverse causation interpretation’, indicating that prolonged unemployment is a consequence of psychological distress instead of the reverse. The present longitudinal study was conducted to test this reverse causation explanation. A second issue addressed in this study was whether getting a job or not depends more strongly on subjective or psychological factors than on objective factors (e.g. a person's biographical background, length of unemployment). Two independent samples were examined: Sample 1 (n = 635) consisted of school-leavers, and sample 2 (n = 467) consisted of subjects who had been unemployed for more than one year. Some support was found for the reverse causation explanation. In addition, more than objective factors, a strong job orientation and a problem focused coping style appeared to be a precursor of success in the labour market. Accordingly, getting a job seems to be primarily a function of one's own efforts. 相似文献