Twentieth century droughts and agriculture: Examples from impacts on soybean production in Kentucky,USA

Drought is a significant natural hazard that slowly evolves over time. Because of its character, drought is difficult to monitor and impacts are often poorly documented. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors that are prone to drought. The objective of this research is to assess the impacts of drought on soybean production and revenue in Kentucky. Soybeans are one of Kentucky’s most important commodities. In this study, impacts of 1930–1931, 1940–1942, 1952–1955, 1987–1988, 1999–2000, and 2007 droughts were considered. It was found that over the recent years, up to 56 % of the revenue from soybeans was lost due to drought. During the first half of the twentieth century, revenue loss reached up to 77 %. This research is valuable to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of impacts of past droughts will help identify drought vulnerabilities and results in better risk management and mitigation.     

Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

A Socio-Ecological Investigation of Options to Manage Groundwater Degradation in the Western Desert, Egypt

Under increasing water scarcity, collective groundwater management is a global concern. This article presents an interdisciplinary analysis of this challenge drawing on a survey including 50 large and small farms and gardens in a village in an agricultural land reclamation area on the edge of the Western Desert of Egypt. Findings revealed that smallholders rely on a practice of shallow groundwater use, through which drainage water from adjacent irrigation areas is effectively recycled within the surface aquifer. Expanding agroindustrial activities in the surrounding area are socio-economically important, but by mining non-renewable water in the surrounding area, they set in motion a degradation process with social and ecological consequences for all users in the multi-layered aquifer system. Based on the findings of our investigation, we identify opportunities for local authorities to more systematically connect available environmental information sources and common pool resource management precedents, to counterbalance the degradation threat.     

Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and tropospheric O3 on tree branch growth and implications for hydrologic budgeting

The forest hydrologic budget may be impacted by increasing CO₂ and tropospheric O₃. Efficient means to quantify such effects are beneficial. We hypothesized that changes in the balance of canopy interception, stem flow, and through-fall in the presence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ could be discerned using image analysis of leafless branches. We compared annual stem flow to the results of a computerized analysis of all branches from the 2002, 2004, and 2006 annual growth whorls of 97 ten-year-old trees from the Aspen Free-Air CO₂ and O₃ Enrichment (Aspen FACE) experiment in Rhinelander, WI. We found significant effects of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on some branch metrics, and that the branch metrics were useful for predicting stem flow from birch, but not aspen. The results of this study should contribute to development of techniques for efficient characterization of effects on the forest hydrologic budget of increasing CO₂ and tropospheric O₃.     

Exposure to moderate concentrations of tropospheric ozone impairs tree stomatal response to carbon dioxide

With rising concentrations of both atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and tropospheric ozone (O₃), it is important to better understand the interacting effects of these two trace gases on plant physiology affecting land-atmosphere gas exchange. We investigated the effect of growth under elevated CO₂ and O₃, singly and in combination, on the primary short-term stomatal response to CO₂ concentration in paper birch at the Aspen FACE experiment. Leaves from trees grown in elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ exhibited weaker short-term responses of stomatal conductance to both an increase and a decrease in CO₂ concentration from current ambient level. The impairement of the stomatal CO₂ response by O₃ most likely developed progressively over the growing season as assessed by sap flux measurements. Our results suggest that expectations of plant water-savings and reduced stomatal air pollution uptake under rising atmospheric CO₂ may not hold for northern hardwood forests under concurrently rising tropospheric O₃.     

Wind Dispersion: A Program for the Texas Instruments 59 Calculator

Simultaneous measurements of individual hydrocarbons and individual carbonyls were carried out at a downtown Los Angeles location. Concentrations are presented for 50 compounds in morning air samples. While paraffins (C ≥ 4) were a major hydrocarbon subclass on a ppmC basis, higher aromatics (C ≥ 8) were the major component when taking reactivity considerations into account. Comparison of the results with emission inventory data showed good agreement for many hydrocarbons and for paraffins as a subclass. Measured olefins and aromatics concentrations were substantially lower and higher, respectively, than those expected from inventory data.     

OPTIMAL IDENTIFICATION OF MUSKINGUM ROUTING COEFFICIENTS1

Traditionally, identification of the Muskingum routing coefficients has been based on observations of the linearity of a loop formed by graphically plotting a forward and a reverse path. This graphical procedure is time-consuming and may not minimize the error of estimation. A procedure was developed to improve the drawbacks of the graphical method. This procedure calls for (a) the use of least square regression on the forward and reverse paths to determine their respective slopes, and (b) the use of statistical t-test to evaluate the hypothesis that these two slopes are equal. The computational procedure is repeated, using incremental values of the flow weighting coefficient, x. A graph of the computed t-value versus x can be constructed. The optimal value of x, as read from the graph, occurs at the minimum computed t-value. The procedure has been demonstrated superior to the graphical method for three illustrative examples, resulting in a reduction of the error squares by factors ranging from 5 to 6.     

REVIEW ON GLOBAL NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2000

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A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SALMONID SPAWNING HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model [Salmonid Spawning Analysis Model (SSAM)] was developed as a management tool to evaluate the relative impacts of stream sediment load and water temperature on salmonid egg survival. The model is useful for estimating acceptable sediment loads to spawning habitat that may result from upland development, such as logging and agriculture. Software in common use in the USA were adapted for use in gravel bedded rivers and linked to simulate water temperature (the USFWS Instream Water Temperature, SNTEMP model) and water and sediment routing (the USAE Scour and Deposition in Rivers and Reservoirs, HEC-6 model, version 3.2). These models drive the redd (spawning nest) model (the USDA-ABS Sediment Intrusion Dissolved Oxygen SIDO model) which simulates sediment intrusion and dissolved oxygen concentration in the redd environment. The SSAM model predictions of dissolved oxygen and water temperature compared favorably with field data from artificial redds containing hatchery chinook salmon eggs.     

FACTORS THAT AFFECT ACTIVATED SLUDGE PHOSPHATE RELEASE1

The activated sludge process can remove significant amounts of phosphorus from sewage, but the removal efficiency is usually significantly reduced by the release of phosphate back to solution during subsequent treatment steps. This research presents a study of soluble phosphate release from activated sludge with emphasis on defining the factors that affect such release and the actual release mechanisms. Laboratory units were used for experimental purposes. The experiments were designed to study the relationship between soluble phosphate release and various environmental factors such as redox potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, solids concentration, solids destruction, and sulfate salt addition. The effect of substrate utilization on phosphate uptake and the relationship between uptake characteristics and subsequent phosphate release were also studied. The results show that some phosphate storage occurs during aerobic substrate utilization. Following substrate utilization, activated sludge phosphate release is directly related to the amount of biological stress the organisms are subjected to, and the mechanism of release is primarily cell lysis. The phosphate released per unit sludge under anoxic conditions is relatively constant. Under normal environmental conditions, neither ORP or pH change have a significant affect on phosphate release.