Temporal trends (1990-2000) in the concentration of cadmium, lead and mercury in mosses across Europe

The European heavy metals in mosses survey provides data on the concentration of 10 heavy metals in naturally growing mosses. The survey has been repeated at five-yearly intervals and in this paper we report on the temporal trends in the concentration of cadmium, lead and mercury between 1990 and 2000. Metal- and country-specific temporal trends were observed. In general, the concentration of lead and cadmium in mosses decreased between 1990 and 2000; the decline was higher for lead than cadmium. For mercury not enough data were available to establish temporal trends between 1990 and 1995, but between 1995 and 2000 the mercury concentration in mosses did not change across Europe. The observed temporal trends for the concentrations in mosses were similar to the trends reported for the modelled total deposition of cadmium, lead and mercury in Europe.     

The Role of Periphyton in Mediating the Effects of Pollution in a Stream Ecosystem

The effects of pollutants on primary producers ramify through ecosystems because primary producers provide food and structure for higher trophic levels and they mediate the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients and contaminants. Periphyton (attached algae) were studied as part of a long-term biological monitoring program designed to guide remediation efforts by the Department of Energy’s Y-12 National Security Complex on East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. High concentrations of nutrients entering EFPC were responsible for elevated periphyton production and placed the stream in a state of eutrophy. High rates of primary production at upstream locations in EFPC were associated with alterations in both invertebrate and fish communities. Grazers represented >50% of the biomass of invertebrates and fish near the Y-12 Complex but <10% at downstream and reference sites. An index of epilithic periphyton production accounted for 95% of the site-to-site variation in biomass of grazing fish. Analyses of heavy metals in EFPC periphyton showed that concentrations of zinc, cadmium, copper and nickel in periphyton decreased exponentially with distance downstream from Y-12. Zinc uptake by periphyton was estimated to reduce the concentration of this metal in stream water ~60% over a 5-km reach of EFPC. Management options for mitigating eutrophy in EFPC include additional reductions in nutrient inputs and/or allowing streamside trees to grow and shade the stream. However, reducing periphyton growth may lead to greater downstream transport of contaminants while simultaneously causing higher concentrations of mercury and PCBs in fish at upstream sites.     

Estimating wildfire growth from noisy and incomplete incident data using a state space model

Wildfire behaviors are complex and are of interest to fire managers and scientists for a variety of reasons. Many of these important behaviors are directly measured from the cumulative burn area time series of individual wildfires; however, estimating cumulative burn area time series is challenging due to the magnitude of measurement errors and missing entries. To resolve this, we introduce two state space models for reconstructing wildfire burn area using repeated observations from multiple data sources that include different levels of measurement error and temporal gaps. The constant growth parameter model uses a few parameters and assumes a burn area time series that follows a logistic growth curve. The non-constant growth parameter model uses a time-varying logistic growth curve to produce detailed estimates of the burn area time series that permit sudden pauses and pulses of growth. We apply both reconstruction models to burn area data from 13 large wildfire incidents to compare the quality of the burn area time series reconstructions and computational requirements. The constant growth parameter model reconstructs burn area time series with minimal computational requirements, but inadequately fits observed data in most cases. The non-constant growth parameter model better describes burn area time series, but can also be highly computationally demanding. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in a typical application, the reconstructed cumulative burn area time series is fairly robust to minor changes in the prior distributions.     

Social comfort zones for transformative conservation decisions in a changing climate

Novel management interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly being considered by scientists and practitioners. However, resistance to more transformative interventions remains common across both specialist and lay communities and is generally assumed to be strongly entrenched. We used a decision-pathways survey of the public in Canada and the United States (n = 1490) to test two propositions relating to climate-motivated interventions for conservation: most public groups are uncomfortable with interventionist options for conserving biodiversity and given the strong values basis for preferences regarding biodiversity and natural systems more broadly, people are unlikely to change their minds. Our pathways design tested and retested levels of comfort with interventions for forest ecosystems at three different points in the survey. Comfort was reexamined given different nudges (including new information from trusted experts) and in reference to a particular species (bristlecone pine [Pinus longaeva]). In contrast with expectations of public unease, baseline levels of public comfort with climate interventions in forests was moderately high (46% comfortable) and increased further when respondents were given new information and the opportunity to change their choice after consideration of a particular species. People who were initially comfortable with interventions tended to remain so (79%), whereas 42% of those who were initially uncomfortable and 40% of those who were uncertain shifted to comfortable by the end of the survey. In short and across questions, comfort levels with interventions were high, and where discomfort or uncertainty existed, such positions did not appear to be strongly held. We argue that a new decision logic, one based on anthropogenic responsibility, is beginning to replace a default reluctance to intervene with nature.     

Estimation of local scale dispersion from local breakthrough curves during a tracer test in a heterogeneous aquifer: the Lagrangian approach

The local scale dispersion tensor, Dd, is a controlling parameter for the dilution of concentrations in a solute plume that is displaced by groundwater flow in a heterogeneous aquifer. In this paper, we estimate the local scale dispersion from time series or breakthrough curves, BTCs, of Br concentrations that were measured at several points in a fluvial aquifer during a natural gradient tracer test at Krauthausen. Locally measured BTCs were characterized by equivalent convection dispersion parameters: equivalent velocity, v(eq)(x) and expected equivalent dispersivity, [lambda(eq)(x)]. A Lagrangian framework was used to approximately predict these equivalent parameters in terms of the spatial covariance of log(e) transformed conductivity and the local scale dispersion coefficient. The approximate Lagrangian theory illustrates that [lambda(eq)(x)] increases with increasing travel distance and is much larger than the local scale dispersivity, lambda(d). A sensitivity analysis indicates that [lambda(eq)(x)] is predominantly determined by the transverse component of the local scale dispersion and by the correlation scale of the hydraulic conductivity in the transverse to flow direction whereas it is relatively insensitive to the longitudinal component of the local scale dispersion. By comparing predicted [lambda(eq)(x)] for a range of Dd values with [lambda(eq)(x)] obtained from locally measured BTCs, the transverse component of Dd, DdT, was estimated. The estimated transverse local scale dispersivity, lambda(dT) = DdT/U1 (U1 = mean advection velocity) is in the order of 10(1)-10(2) mm, which is relatively large but realistic for the fluvial gravel sediments at Krauthausen.     

Fulani pastoralists’ transformation process: a sustainable development approach in the Western Highlands of Cameroon

The Fulani pastoralists of the Western Highlands of Cameroon are a subgroup of the Fulbe, a wider pastoral group whose members are dispersed across Sub-Saharan Africa. They migrated and settled in the region in the early twentieth century at different times in migratory waves. Since arriving in the region, they have experienced different stages of transformation due to changing socioeconomic, political and ecological conditions influencing their nomadic lifestyle. The Fulani pastoralists have moved from a purely nomadic lifestyle that involved permanent seasonal migration with their herds and families to a semi-nomadic lifestyle involving return to their previous settlements at the end of each transhumance season, and they finally have adopted a more sedentary community lifestyle that involves only the seasonal movement of herdsmen and their cattle during dry periods. This pastoralist transformation process was motivated by the hospitality of native farming communities, the British colonial administration and postcolonial government of Cameroon, population growth and environmental degradation in the Western Highlands of grazing and cultivable land. This transformation has been beneficial to both pastoralists and native farming groups by improving local community development through increased agro-pastoral production and the realization of communal development projects in education and non-agro-pastoral economic activities. Several challenges have confronted this Fulani pastoralist transformation and its community development in the Western Highlands of Cameroon: landuse competition involving farmer–herder conflicts and inter-tribal wars; climate change, including rainfall variability; and environmental degradation including the disappearance of agro-pastoral lands. This paper, based on field research, investigates the various approaches, benefits and challenges involved in Fulani pastoralists’ settlement transformation in the Western Highlands of Cameroon.     

The deadly effects of "nonlethal" predators

Nonconsumptive predator effects are widespread and include plasticity as well as general stress responses. Caged predators are often used to estimate nonconsumptive effects, and numerous studies have focused on the larval stages of animals with complex life cycles. However, few of these studies test whether nonconsumptive predator effects, including stress responses, are exclusively sublethal. Nor have they assessed whether these effects extend beyond the larval stage, affecting success during stressful life-history transitions such as metamorphosis. We conducted experiments with larvae of a dragonfly (Leucorrhinia intacta) that exhibits predator-induced plasticity to assess whether the mere presence of predators affects larval survivorship, metamorphosis, and adult body size. Larvae exposed to caged predators with no ability to attack them had higher levels of mortality. In the second experiment, larvae reared with caged predators had higher rates of metamorphic failure, but there was no effect on adult body size. Our results suggest that stress responses induced by exposure to predator cues increase the vulnerability of prey to other mortality factors, and that mere exposure to predators can result in significant increases in mortality.     

The Influence of Loss Aversion on Mountain Bikers’ Behavioral Intentions

Public involvement in management decision making has received increased attention from researchers in recent years. These studies, however, have rarely considered differences in behavior resulting from gains and losses, despite ample evidence that individuals’ behavior is not the same across situations. Individuals are often more sensitive to losses than gains, which research suggests is related to ownership (real or perceived) of the item lost. We present evidence from a within-subjects quasi-experimental design to test whether mountain bikers’ reported intentions differ between gain based and loss based conditions. These data were analyzed using a multi-step repeated measures analysis of variance and repeated measures analysis of covariance. The results suggest that losses are more powerful than gains in motivating public engagement in management decision making. Further, the type of action was also shown to influence behavioral intentions. Additional analyses provide support to the claim that, centrality, used as a proximate measure of ownership, moderates the contextual effects on behavioral intentions. Thus, loss aversion, moderated by ownership, is a plausible explanation of stakeholder involvement.     

Spatial variability of sydney air quality by cumulative semivariogram

This paper establishes that an isotropic spatial correlation function in the form of a modified Bessel function of the second kind, first order, can be used to model the spatial variability of a pollution concentration field over a sufficiently long period of time in which the variability due to meteorological factors has been smoothed out. The corresponding cumulative semivariogram is derived and fitted by nonlinear least-squares to monthly averaged ozone data at 18 monitoring stations of the Sydney region. The good fit of the model indicates that the Sydney airshed has homogeneous and isotropic subregions whose radius of influence is about 17 km. The Bessel function form of the spatial correlation has a physical meaning as it is derived from the diffusion equation; hence, it is expected that the model can be used, in general, to represent the spatial variability of a smoothed homogeneous and isotropic concentration field.