WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.     

Handling intensity and the short- and long-term survival of elephant seals: addressing and quantifying research effects on wild animals

This study addresses the consequences of repeated human handling on the survival of an endangered phocid, the southern elephant seal and the implications for wildlife research. Southern elephant seal pups were repeatedly handled during the first six weeks of their lives. The possibility that such anthropogenic research may have altered the very parameters that were being investigated is a topical and relevant study area that we address here. Our results show that there were no measurable effects on pups that were repeatedly handled and subjected to invasive research methods with respect to survivorship in the short term (the 24-day nursing period) nor in the long term (the first year of life and beyond) and hence fitness one year after handling. In support of this conclusion we were unable to detect any significant differences in the survival rates of the most intensively handled seals and the least intensively handled seals.     

Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Crown ratio influences allometric scaling in trees

Allometric theories suggest that the size and shape of organisms follow universal rules, with a tendency toward quarter-power scaling. In woody plants, however, structure is influenced by branch death and shedding, which leads to decreasing crown ratios, accumulation of heartwood, and stem and branch tapering. This paper examines the impacts on allometric scaling of these aspects, which so far have been largely ignored in the scaling theory. Tree structure is described in terms of active and disused pipes arranged as an infinite branching network in the crown, and as a tapering bundle of pipes below the crown. Importantly, crown ratio is allowed to vary independently of crown size, the size of the trunk relative to the crown deriving from empirical results that relate crown base diameter to breast height diameter through crown ratio. The model implies a scaling relationship in the crown which reduces to quarter-power scaling under restrictive assumptions but would generally yield a scaling exponent somewhat less than three-quarters. For the whole tree, the model predicts that scaling between woody mass and foliage depends on crown ratio. Measurements on three boreal tree species are consistent with the model predictions.     

Beyond demographic identities and motivation to learn: The effect of organizational identification on diversity training outcomes

There is a pressing need for better explanations of diversity training effectiveness so that organizations can administer training programs that facilitate positive intergroup interactions. In this paper, we consider the unique predictive effect of organizational identification on diversity training outcomes beyond the effects of the traditional predictors of demographic-based identities and motivation to learn across two samples of employees involved in diversity-related training at their employing organizations. Organizational identification predicted unique variance in voluntary participation in diversity training, diversity training-related knowledge application, motivation to transfer diversity training, and diversity training-related organizational citizenship behavior intentions. Research and practitioner implications are discussed based on our findings.     

Measuring participation by socially vulnerable groups in hazard mitigation planning,Bertie County,North Carolina

In accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act, most US counties have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to reduce future disaster losses. HMPs are important as they can be used to proactively assess risk, direct future development, raise awareness and build consensus. Using a population-based sample, we interviewed residents of Bertie County, NC, about their awareness of and participation in the HMP process to determine if demographics, social vulnerability or hazard vulnerability were associated with increased awareness or participation. We also assessed whether these factors were associated with knowledge of policy changes and investments that were adopted in the HMP. Overall, the unemployed were the only group less likely to report awareness of or participation in HMP development. African-Americans, mobile home residents, the poor, short-term residents and those with less disaster experience were less likely to be aware of policies and investments prioritised in the HMP. Targeted efforts to increase awareness could potentially improve disaster outcomes among vulnerable populations.     

A Comparison of Corridors and Intrinsic Connectivity to Promote Dispersal in Transient Successional Landscapes

Low-vagility organisms that specialize on transitory successional habitats may be especially dependent upon habitat connectivity to maintain population viability. We analyzed the theoretical intrinsic connectivity of successional landscapes (i.e., the natural juxtaposition of similar habitats that allows dispersal) as a function of patch geometry coupled with the disperser's habitat specificity. Habitat specialists living in poorly connected landscapes (approximating hexagonal patches) have only a 26.5% chance of colonizing a new site when their resident patch becomes unsuitable. In contrast, generalists living in well connected landscapes can virtually always colonize a new site when needed. We infer from our simulation that for some habitat specialists, such as the rare, endemic Florida scrub lizard (Sceloporus woodi), anthropogenic control of successional dynamics for commercial logging may significantly reduce intrinsic connectivity. Lizard population viability may now depend upon the extrinsic connectivity provided by artificial corridors. However, the use of corridors will not serve as a general solution to the problem of anthropogenically reduced intrinsic connectivity until key logistical design problems have been resolved. Moreover, efforts to enhance intrinsic connectivity by modifying patch geometry may produce undesirable edge effects and conflict with old-growth preservation. Future research should focus on developing spatially explicit corridor models, documenting natural levels of intrinsic connectivity, quantifying anthropogenic disruption of natural connectivity, and describing species-specific mechanisms of inter-patch dispersal.     

The outcome of in-vitro contests between larvae of the endoparasitoid<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Venturia canescens</Emphasis> depends on both their relative and absolute ages

In a laboratory colony of the asexual solitary endoparasitoid Venturia canescens Grav. (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), two genetically and phenotypically distinct lines (RP and RM) appear to coexist sympatrically, with the reproductive success of the RM-line being greater under con-specific superparasitism but lower under self superparasitism. To investigate the basis of the RM-lines advantage under con-specific superparasitism, we examined the outcome of inter-larval physical combat under in-vitro conditions. The results showed that the outcome depended on both the relative and absolute ages of the contestants, and that the competitive abilities of the two lines were not symmetric. In contests involving a larva and an egg, the unhatched wasp lost. In contests involving two larvae, at least one of which was newly hatched, the RP-larva tended to lose. Finally, if both larvae were at least 8–10 h post-hatching when the contest occurred, then the larger larva tended to lose, with the probability increasing with the difference in length between the two larvae. Thus, the higher reproductive success of the RM-line under competing superparasitism with the RP-line is due to a physiological difference between the newly hatched larvae of the two lines, which results in an advantage to the RM-larva independent of the order or time interval between ovipositions.Communicated by P. Heeb