Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Anti-sense expression of putrescine N-methyltransferase confirms defensive role of nicotine in Nicotiana sylvestris against Manduca sexta

Summary. Several lines of evidence support the defensive function of nicotine production in the Nicotiana genus against a range of herbivores, but the evidence is largely correlative. To suppress nicotine production in planta and to test its defensive function, we expressed DNA of putrescine N-methyl transferase in an anti-sense orientation (AS-PMT) in N. sylvestris and fed leaf material from two lines of transformed and wild type plants to Manduca sexta larvae. Larvae consumed more leaf area and gained more mass on the foliage of plants with low PMT expression and low nicotine levels as compared to plants with high PMT expression and high nicotine levels and wild type plants. Overall, larval consumption and performance were negatively correlated with constitutive nicotine levels. We conclude that nicotine decreases the palatability of N. sylvestris leaves to the nicotine-resistant M. sexta larvae.     

Release of persistent organic contaminants from carcasses of Lake Ontario Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

About 20,000 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from Lake Ontario enter the Credit River, Ontario, Canada every fall to spawn and die. In this study, samples of muscle and eggs collected from female Chinook salmon entering the Credit River contained total PCBs, DDT compounds and other organochlorine (OC) compounds at mug/kg concentrations. Semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed at a reference site above the spawning grounds and at two downstream sites at intervals over a 14-month period that spanned two spawning runs. There was an increase in the concentrations of total PCBs, total DDT and other classes of OCs in the SPMDs deployed at the two downstream sites during and after both spawning runs; indicating that the decay of salmon releases contaminants into the river. Based upon the concentrations of contaminants in the salmon tissues, approximately 75 g of total PCBs and 35 g of total DDT compounds would be transported annually into the Credit River from this source.     

Dissolved antimony concentrations in contrasted watersheds: the importance of lithogenic origin

A large series of data on dissolved antimony concentrations (900 values) from the hydrological network of Canton Geneva, Switzerland, has been statistically analysed. Data were collected from 90 sampling sites over 12 years. The watercourses surveyed (178 km) accounted for 73% of the total network. Previous studies have classified these rivers as belonging to three clearly-differentiated lithogenic zones: Alps (rivers draining crystalline regions), Jura (rivers draining carbonate-rich zones) and Plain (rivers draining molasses derived from the Alps). Antimony concentrations in the different river waters have been found to be significantly dependent on the geological characteristics of the drainage basins (median values: 0.13, 0.08 and 0.16 microg L(-1) for Alps, Jura and Plain, respectively). For antimony, it is thus possible to define background levels of the element adapted to the lithogenic characteristics for a system of interest. Since establishing background levels is an unavoidable preliminary step in any study aiming to identify and evaluate the various sources of pollution, the behaviour described here has undeniable implications for environmental surveys.     

Maternal allocation of lipid classes and fatty acids with seasonal egg production in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) of wild origin

A suite of characteristics is often used to assess egg quality as these properties potentially play important roles in progeny survival and growth. Our objective was to assess egg characteristics including lipid biocomposition of an iteroparous, batch-spawning teleost of wild origin. Maternal allocation to egg number was generally dome-shaped (5 of 8 females) and egg size declined over the breeding season for eight breeding pairs of wild Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (n = 43 batches). Egg lipid composition ranged considerably among females and between egg batches within females (e.g., phospholipids 40–86 %; polar 47–87 % and neutral lipids 15–52 % of total lipids; polyunsaturated fatty acids 16–50 % of total fatty acids). Principal component analyses revealed significant inter-relationships among maternal traits, batch sequence and fecundity, and egg size and composition. Seasonal trends with regard to lipid deposition were variable; three females showed consistent declines in lipid parameters (μg egg⁻¹) with both batch number and egg diameter, one female showed consistent increase and the four remaining females showed no trend. The three females that exhibited seasonal declines in egg lipid content were characterized as having high fertilization success (>75 %). Our findings highlight the variability in lipid allocation to eggs of batch spawners of wild origin and characterize the composition of endogenous reserves available during embryogenesis and yolk sac larval stages.