The environmentalist who cried drought: Reactions to repeated warnings about depleting resources under conditions of uncertainty

Three studies examined the impact of warnings about depleting resources. In Study 1, participants played 16 trials of a 5-person resource dilemma game with complete resource uncertainty. After trial 12, participants were told they were close to depleting the resource, and thereafter received no additional warnings. Size of harvests dropped after the warning, but rebounded within 3 trials to pre-warning levels, a pattern stronger under low harvesting variability. In Study 2, participants received warnings after trials 12 and 16 of a 22-trial game. Again, harvesting dropped after the first warning, but rebounded to pre-warning levels within 3 trials, a pattern stronger under a short-term vs. a long-term warning. Harvesting was unaffected by the second warning. In Study 3, when participants received no feedback about others' harvests, harvesting dropped after both warnings, and was lower among those led to believe the resource would last a short number of trials.     

Including risk in stated-preference economic valuations: Experiments on choices for marine recreation

Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations.     

Water level management and contaminant exposure to tree swallows nesting on the Upper Mississippi River†

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted a water drawdown on Navigation Pool 8 of the Upper Mississippi River during the summers of 2001 and 2002 to increase aquatic vegetation production and thereby improve fish and wildlife habitat. Flooding of previously dried wetlands, however, may increase the rate of mercury methylation and make mercury more available to terrestrial vertebrates that feed in aquatic environments. Our objective was to determine if mercury, other elements, and organochlorine contaminants were more available to vertebrates following the 2001 drawdown. Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) eggs and nestlings were collected at two sites on Pool 8 and a nearby Reference site in 2000 (pre-2001 drawdown), 2001 (pre-2001 drawdown) and 2002 (post-2001 drawdown) and tissues were analyzed for mercury, other elements, and organochlorine contaminants. Bioindicator measurements of genetic damage, oxidative stress, ethoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase activity, and the ratio of liver to nestling mass were also measured in nestlings at all sites and all years. Based on a multivariate analysis, the 2001 drawdown of Pool 8 did not influence element concentrations, organochlorine concentrations, or bioindicator response. Concentrations of inorganic and organochlorine contaminants in tree swallow eggs and nestlings were not at toxic levels. Hatching success did not differ among years and was comparable to the nationwide average.