IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

Evaluation of tidal marsh restoration: Comparison of selected macroinvertebrate populations on a restored impounded valley marsh and an unimpounded valley marsh within the same salt marsh system in Connecticut,USA

Macroinvertebrates were examined on an impounded valley marsh in Stonington, Connecticut, that has changed from aTypha-dominated system to one with typical salt-marsh vegetation during 13 years following the reintroduction of tidal exchange. Animal populations on this restored impounded marsh were evaluated by comparing them with populations on a nearby unimpounded valley marsh of roughly the same size. Populations of the high marsh snail,Melampus bidentatus Say, were quantitatively sampled along transects that extended from the water-marsh edge to the upland; those of the ribbed mussel,Geukensia demissa Dillwyn, were sampled in low marsh areas on transects along the banks of creeks and mosquito ditches. The occurrence of other marsh invertebrates also was documented, but their abundance was not measured. The mean density ofMelampus was 332±39.6 SE/m² on the restored impounded marsh and 712±56.0 SE/m² on the unimpounded marsh. However, since snails were larger on the restored impounded marsh, the difference in snail biomass was less pronounced than the difference in snail density. MeanMelampus biomass was 4.96±0.52 SE g dry wt/m² on the restored impounded marsh and 6.96±0.52 SE g dry wt/m² on the unimpounded marsh. On the two marshes, snail density and biomass varied in relation to plant cover and other factors. The density and biomass ofGeukensia at the edge of the marsh were comparable on the restored impounded and unimpounded marshes. Mean mussel densities ranged from 80 to 240/m² and mean mussel biomass varied from 24.8–64.8 g dry wt/m² in different low marsh areas. In contrast, below the impoundment dike, meanGeukensia density was 1100±96.4 SE/m² and meanGeukensia biomass was 303.6±33.28 SE g dry wt/m². A consideration of all available evidence leads to the conclusion that the impounded marsh is in an advanced phase of restoration.     

Fostering Sustainability in Headwaters Country: Using Bioregional and Social Capital Strategies in Support of Sustainability

Many of Canada's ex-urban and rural areas face a daunting array of sustainability challenges. In developing effective sustainability strategies, these areas must rely heavily upon local resources and capacities and existing social capital. Part of the solution for these areas may lie in multi-stakeholder collaborative approaches built on sustainability principles and strategies. These include the engagement and mobilization of civil society networks; the cultivation of strategic partnerships among key stakeholders in civil society, the private sector and government; and long-term local programmes of research, education and advocacy that are supportive of sustainability. This article describes and analyses a Canadian case study—Dufferin County, part of the Headwaters Country region in southern Ontario—in which a multi-stakeholder, civil society based approach to fostering sustainability is currently unfolding. The ideological and theoretical underpinnings of the initiative are explored, key process-oriented and substantive challenges to the approach are analysed and action research strategies are discussed.     

Phosphorus transfer in surface runoff from intensive pasture systems at various scales: a review

Phosphorus transfer in runoff from intensive pasture systems has been extensively researched at a range of scales. However, integration of data from the range of scales has been limited. This paper presents a conceptual model of P transfer that incorporates landscape effects and reviews the research relating to P transfer at a range of scales in light of this model. The contribution of inorganic P sources to P transfer is relatively well understood, but the contribution of organic P to P transfer is still relatively poorly defined. Phosphorus transfer has been studied at laboratory, profile, plot, field, and watershed scales. The majority of research investigating the processes of P transfer (as distinct from merely quantifying P transfer) has been undertaken at the plot scale. However, there is a growing need to integrate data gathered at a range of scales so that more effective strategies to reduce P transfer can be identified. This has been hindered by the lack of a clear conceptual framework to describe differences in the processes of P transfer at the various scales. The interaction of hydrological (transport) factors with P source factors, and their relationship to scale, require further examination. Runoff-generating areas are highly variable, both temporally and spatially. Improvement in the understanding and identification of these areas will contribute to increased effectiveness of strategies aimed at reducing P transfers in runoff. A thorough consideration of scale effects using the conceptual model of P transfer outlined in this paper will facilitate the development of improved strategies for reducing P losses in runoff.     

Linking rights and standards: the process of developing "rights-based" minimum standards on food security, nutrition and food aid

This article examines the recent revision of the Sphere Minimum Standards in disaster response relating to food security, nutrition and food aid. It describes how the revision attempted to incorporate the principles of the Humanitarian Charter, as well as relevant human rights principles and values into the Sphere Minimum Standards. The initial aim of the revision was to ensure that the Sphere Minimum Standards better reflected the principles embodied in the Humanitarian Charter. This was later broadened to ensure that key legal standards and principles from human rights and humanitarian law were considered and also incorporated, in part to fill the "protection gap" within the existing standards. In relation to the food security, nutrition and food aid standards, it was agreed by participants in the process that the human right to adequate food and freedom from hunger should be incorporated. In relation to more general principles underlying the Humanitarian Charter, itself drawn largely from human rights and humanitarian law, it was agreed that there was a need to strengthen "protection" elements within the standards and a need to incorporate the basic principles of the right to life with dignity, non-discrimination, impartiality and participation, as well as to explore the relevance of the concept of the progressive realisation of the right to food. The questions raised in linking rights to operational standards required thought, on the one hand, about whether the technical standards reflected a deep understanding of the values expressed within the legal instruments, and whether the existing standards were adequate in relation to those legal rights. On the other hand, it also required reflection on how operational standards like Sphere could give concrete content to human rights, such as the right to food and the right to be free from hunger. However, there remain challenges in examining what a rights-based approach will mean in terms of the role of humanitarian agencies as duty-bearers of rights, given that the primary responsibility rests with state governments. It will also require reflection on the modes and mechanisms of accountability that are brought to bear in ensuring the implementation of the Minimum Standards.     

Driving disability and dizziness

PROBLEM: People with dizziness caused by vestibular (i.e., inner ear) disorders complain of difficulty driving. Physicians occasionally warn their patients with vestibular disorders not to drive. Few studies have asked patients about their driving performance, so little data are available. METHOD: Using the Driving Habits Questionnaire, the authors did structured interviews with people with several different vestibular disorders and with normal subjects. The self-reported crash rate and rate of citations for moving violations did not differ between the subject groups. RESULTS: Patients report reduced driving skills, particularly in situations when visual information is reduced, rapid head movements are used, and specific path integration or spatial navigation skills are needed.     

Stable carbon isotope ratio and composition of microbial fatty acids in tropical soils

The soil microbial community plays a critical part in tropical ecosystem functioning through its role in the soil organic matter (SOM) cycle. This study evaluates the relative effects of soil type and land use on (i) soil microbial community structure and (ii) the contribution of SOM derived from the original forest vegetation to the functioning of pasture and sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) ecosystems. We used principal components analysis (PCA) of soil phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) profiles to evaluate microbial community structure and PLFA stable carbon isotope ratios (delta13C) as indicators of the delta13C of microbial substrates. Soil type mainly determined the relative proportions of gram positive versus gram negative bacteria whereas land use primarily determined the relative proportion of fungi, protozoa, and actinomycetes versus other types of microorganisms. Comparison of a simple model to our PLFA delta13C data from land use chronosequences indicates that forest-derived SOM is actively cycled for appreciably longer times in sugarcane ecosystems developed on Andisols (mean turnover time = 50 yr) than in sugarcane ecosystems developed on an Oxisol (mean turnover time = 13 yr). Our analyses indicate that soil chronosequence PLFA delta13C measurements can be useful indicators of the contribution that SOM derived from the original vegetation makes to continued ecosystem function under the new land use.     

Diuron occurrence and distribution in soil and surface and ground water associated with grass seed production

Little is known about the occurrence and distribution of the herbicide diuron [3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethyl urea] in soil, ground water, and surface water in areas affected by grass-seed production. A field study was designed to investigate the occurrence and distribution of diuron and its transformation products at a poorly drained field site located along an intermittent tributary of Lake Creek in the southern Willamette Valley of Oregon. The experimental sites consisted of a field under commercial grass seed production with a cultivated riparian zone and a second site that was part of the same grass seed field but with a noncultivated riparian zone. Diuron and its transformation product DCPMU [3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1-methylurea] were the only significant residues detected in this study. Concentrations of diuron in surface water declined from a maximum of 28 microg/L immediately following application to low levels that persisted as long as flow was present. Diuron and DCPMU concentrations in shallow ground water (15-36 cm below ground surface) were highest (2-13 microg/L) in the zone immediately adjacent (0.5 m) to Lake Creek and indicated the influence of stream water on shallow ground water near the stream. Diuron and DCPMU detected in soil prior to the second season's application indicated the persistence of diuron and DCPMU from the previous year's application. Surface runoff during the rainy season removes only a very small percentage (<1%) of the applied herbicide. In addition, no evidence was obtained for the downward transport of diuron or its transformation products to deep ground water.     

Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Food and hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is by far and away the most disadvantaged of the world's three main developing regions. Worse, its situation has mostly been deteriorating for much of the past several decades. Its agriculture is severely under-productive, and per capita food supplies have been steadily dwindling. Its environments and natural-resource base, characterised by water deficits, soil erosion, fuelwood shortages, rudimentary agro-practices, and grossly inadequate infrastructure, are generally unfavourable for sustainable agriculture. The population has expanded until it far exceeds carrying capacity, yet its growth rate is the highest in the world. The region also suffers from more disease than any other region. There is widespread and deepening poverty. As a result of these and other problems, and despite major food imports, two-thirds of the people are malnourished, one-quarter of whom endure outright hunger, even semi-starvation. Both these proportions appear set to keep on increasing both relatively and absolutely. Were these problems to persist with their decades-long trends, there could eventually arrive a stage when much larger numbers of people would succumb to terminal malnutrition, precipitating a human tragedy of unprecedented proportions. Fortunately, success stories demonstrate that solutions are available, on the part of both governments concerned and international agencies. Because of ignorance, or rather ignore-ance of the potential mortality disaster ahead, however, not nearly enough has been done to address the challenge with the energy and urgency to match its scale.