Statistical matching for conservation science

The awareness of the need for robust impact evaluations in conservation is growing and statistical matching techniques are increasingly being used to assess the impacts of conservation interventions. Used appropriately matching approaches are powerful tools, but they also pose potential pitfalls. We outlined important considerations and best practice when using matching in conservation science. We identified 3 steps in a matching analysis. First, develop a clear theory of change to inform selection of treatment and controls and that accounts for real-world complexities and potential spillover effects. Second, select the appropriate covariates and matching approach. Third, assess the quality of the matching by carrying out a series of checks. The second and third steps can be repeated and should be finalized before outcomes are explored. Future conservation impact evaluations could be improved by increased planning of evaluations alongside the intervention, better integration of qualitative methods, considering spillover effects at larger spatial scales, and more publication of preanalysis plans. Implementing these improvements will require more serious engagement of conservation scientists, practitioners, and funders to mainstream robust impact evaluations into conservation. We hope this article will improve the quality of evaluations and help direct future research to continue to improve the approaches on offer.     

Minimizing Collision Risk Between Migrating Raptors and Marine Wind Farms: Development of a Spatial Planning Tool

An increased focus on renewable energy has led to the planning and construction of marine wind farms in Europe. Since several terrestrial studies indicate that raptors are especially susceptible to wind turbine related mortality, a Spatial Planning Tool is needed so that wind farms can be sited, in an optimal way, to minimize risk of collisions. Here we use measurements of body mass, wingspan and wing area of eight European raptor species, to calculate their Best Glide Ratio (BGR). The BGR was used to construct a linear equation, which, by the use of initial take-off altitude, could be used to calculate a Theoretical Maximum Distance (TMD) from the coast, attained by these soaring-gliding raptor species. If the nearest turbine, of future marine wind farms, is placed farther away from the coast than the estimated TMD, the collision risk between the turbine blades and these gliding raptors will be minimized. The tool was demonstrated in a case study at the Rødsand II wind farm in Denmark. Data on raptor migration altitude were gathered by radar. From the TMD attained by registered soaring-gliding raptors in the area, we concluded that the Rødsand II wind farm is not sited ideally, from an ornithological point of view, as potentially all three registered species are at risk of gliding through the area swept by the turbine rotor blades, and thereby at risk of colliding with the wind turbines.     

Oil Contamination in Ogoniland, Niger Delta

The study shows extensive oil contamination of rivers, creeks, and ground waters in Ogoniland, Nigeria. The levels found in the more contaminated sites are high enough to cause severe impacts on the ecosystem and human health: extractable petroleum hydrocarbons (EPHs) (>10-C40) in surface waters up to 7420 μg L⁻¹, drinking water wells show up to 42 200 μg L⁻¹, and benzene up to 9000 μg L⁻¹, more than 900 times the WHO guidelines. EPH concentrations in sediments were up to 17 900 mg kg⁻¹. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons concentrations reached 8.0 mg kg⁻¹, in the most contaminated sites. The contamination has killed large areas of mangroves. Although the natural conditions for degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons are favorable with high temperatures and relatively high rainfall, the recovery of contaminated areas is prevented due to the chronic character of the contamination. Oil spills of varying magnitude originates from facilities and pipelines; leaks from aging, dilapidated, and abandoned infrastructure; and from spills during transport and artisanal refining of stolen oil under very primitive conditions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0412-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Residual Effect of Induced Water Stress and Nitrogen Addition on the Mycobiota in Scots Pine Stands

Mycobiota (fungi, lichens and myxomycetes) was examined in permanent plots following experiments of artificial drought (D) and nitrogen addition (N) and compared with untreated forest (C), in Scots pine stand planted on Arenosols. Species diversity and relationships between fungal community structure and environmental variables (plant species numbers and cover, bryophyte cover, soil and bark pH, tree mortality) were explored. Both D and N treatments lead to decrease of fungal species in general, however, responses of individual trophic and ecological groups varied. The strongest effect of the treatments was observed for soil fungi, especially mycorrhizal: numbers of fruiting species and ectomycorrhizal root tips decreased, and species composition has changed. Saprotrophic fungi reacted by changes in species composition but not in numbers. Of the studied environmental variables, the most significant effect on mycobiota had bryophyte and vascular plant cover as well as vascular plant species numbers.     

Using multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the vulnerability of drinking water utilities

Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.     

Socioeconomic outcomes of agricultural land use change in Southeast Asia

Agricultural land use is transforming rapidly in Southeast Asia, often supported by development policies aiming primarily at economic growth. However, the socioeconomic outcomes of these changes for smallholder farmers remain unclear. Here, we systematically review cases of agricultural land use change in Southeast Asia to assess their socioeconomic outcomes and potential trade-off and synergies in these outcomes. Of the 126 reviewed cases, we find mostly positive outcomes for income (SDG 1, 100 cases) and employment (SDG 8, 11 cases), while outcomes on health (SDG 3, 9 cases) were mixed, and outcomes for food security (SDG 2, 44 cases), gender equality (SDG 5, 13 cases), and economic equality (SDG 10, 14 cases) were mostly negative. Studies describing multiple outcomes show indications of synergies between income and food security, and between income and employment, but also potential trade-offs between income and economic equality. In addition, we find that economic land concessions result in multiple negative outcomes more often than other types of land governance regimes. The results provide evidence that economic gains from agricultural land use change often come at a cost of other dimensions of sustainable development.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01712-4.     

Status and trends of terrestrial arthropod abundance and diversity in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic

Ambio - The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) provides an opportunity to improve our knowledge of Arctic arthropod diversity, but initial baseline studies are required to...     

Population-based assessment of a vehicle fleet with seat belts providing lower shoulder belt forces than today

Objective: The objective of this study was to quantify the population-based effects of a lower shoulder belt load limit on front row occupants in frontal car crashes.

Method: Crashes of modern vehicles from the GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) are corrected for bias and projected to the national level. Injury risk functions are computed for the injury severity levels Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+, MAIS 3+, and fatal, stratified by 2 age cohorts (16–44 years of age and 45 years or older). To assess the field effectivity of a “softer belt,” the projected crash frequency data are modified separately for the 2 age cohorts such that its risk structure represents the risk of a softer belt. Given those 2 samples, the field effectivity of a softer belt is derived for several shares of the younger age cohort according to the injury severity levels MAIS 2+, MAIS 3+, and fatal.

Results: The injury risk distribution of the projected crash frequency data, represented here by the injury risk functions obtained, fits well into the injury risk distribution of other data sets (Sweden, United States, and Japan) given in the literature. The relative effects of a lower belt force are stable over the different ratios of the younger and old age cohorts. At the MAIS 2+ level, a lower belt force can significantly reduce the number of injuries (about 10%). A lower belt force does not significantly affect the number of MAIS 3+ injuries. A lower belt force can, however, more than double the number of fatal injuries.

Conclusions: Because the number of fatal injuries rises dramatically due to lower belt force, the reduction in the number of MAIS 2+ injuries comes at a very high cost. Therefore, whether reducing the belt force limit is the right approach is questionable.     

Mapping the spatio-temporal distribution of key vegetation cover properties in lowland river reaches,using digital photography

The presence of vegetation in stream ecosystems is highly dynamic in both space and time. A digital photography technique is developed to map aquatic vegetation cover at species level, which has a very high spatial and a flexible temporal resolution. A digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera mounted on a handheld telescopic pole is used. The low-altitude (5 m) orthogonal aerial images have a low spectral resolution (red-green-blue), high spatial resolution (～1.9 pixels cm^?2, ～1.3 cm length) and flexible temporal resolution (monthly). The method is successfully applied in two lowland rivers to quantify four key properties of vegetated rivers: vegetation cover, patch size distribution, biomass and hydraulic resistance. The main advantages are that the method is (i) suitable for continuous and discontinuous vegetation covers, (ii) of very high spatial and flexible temporal resolution, (iii) relatively fast compared to conventional ground survey methods, (iv) non-destructive and (v) relatively cheap and easy to use, and (vi) the software is widely available and similar open source alternatives exist. The study area should be less than 10 m wide, and the prevailing light conditions and water turbidity levels should be sufficient to look into the water. Further improvements of the image processing are expected in the automatic delineation and classification of the vegetation patches.