Evaluation of Monte Carlo-based calibrations of HPGe detectors for in situ gamma-ray spectrometry

The aim of this work was to evaluate the use of Monte Carlo-based calibrations for in situ gamma-ray spectrometry. We have performed in situ measurements at five different sites in Sweden using HPGe detectors to determine ground deposition activity levels of ¹³⁷Cs from the 1986 Chernobyl accident. Monte Carlo-calculated efficiency calibration factors were compared with corresponding values calculated using a more traditional semi-empirical method. In addition, results for the activity ground deposition were also compared with activity densities found in soil samples. In order to facilitate meaningful comparisons between the different types of results, the combined standard uncertainty of in situ measurements was assessed for both calibration methods. Good agreement, both between the two calibration methods, and between in situ measurements and soil samples, was found at all five sites. Uncertainties in in situ measurements for the given measurement conditions, about 20 years after the fallout occurred, were found to be in the range 15–20% (with a coverage factor k = 1, i.e. with a confidence interval of about 68%).     

Education and advice contribute to increased density of broadleaved conservation trees, but not saplings, in young forest in Sweden

The effectiveness of different conservation policies is debated, but the policies are rarely evaluated quantitatively. A voluntary or 'soft' policy based mainly on education provides information about ecosystems and effects of land use, to encourage conservation action. Swedish forestry relies mainly on soft policy, with substantial resources for education and advice to more than 200,000 forest owners, while legal regulation is weak. Increased retention of broadleaved trees at clear-cutting, with environmental benefits in the conifer-dominated forestry, is important in the policy. We used the Swedish National Forest Inventory to analyse this policy for young forests in southern Sweden. Between 1983-1987 and 1998-2002 the policy had no positive effect on saplings (1.3m tall to 4.9 cm dbh) of birch, oak, beech and other species that mostly decreased in density, due to planting of conifers and browsing by ungulates. However, broadleaved conservation trees (>or=15 cm dbh) increased in density, e.g. to about one oak and six birches per ha in young coniferous forest in 1998-2002. The relative increase in density was higher for large (>or=20 cm dbh) than for small trees (15-20 cm dbh). The density of conservation trees was higher on forestland of high than of low productivity. Thus, the soft conservation policy did not influence regeneration of saplings in this type of forestry system, but large broadleaved trees were increasingly saved at 'clear-cuttings'. Advice and educational programmes probably contributed to this result. A continued increase in conservation trees at harvest may require economical support to forest owners.     

Reconnecting to the Biosphere

Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.