Decreased Runoff Response to Precipitation,Little Missouri River Basin,Northern Great Plains,USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976‐2012 compared to 1939‐1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface‐water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.     

Comparing Costs of Onsite Best Management Practices to Nutrient Credits for Stormwater Management: A Case Study in Virginia

Best management practices (BMPs) are widely used to mitigate impacts of increased impervious surfaces on stormwater runoff. However, there is limited detailed and up‐to‐date information available on the cost of designing, constructing, and maintaining BMPs over their lifetime. The objective of this study is to analyze BMPs recently constructed by the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) to quantify their total cost per pound of phosphorus removed annually. A motivating factor for the study is recent changes to regulatory guidelines in Virginia which allow for full or partial substitution of purchased nutrient credits in lieu of constructing onsite BMPs to achieve compliance with stormwater quality regulations. Results of the analysis of nine BMPs found their cost ranged from $20,100 to $74,900, in 2014 dollars, per pound ($44,313‐$165,126 per kg) of phosphorus removed. Based on these results and assuming current credit prices procured by VDOT, purchasing nutrient credits is a cost‐effective option for the agency, especially when factoring in the cost of additional right of way for the BMP. Based on this finding, we expect compliance with stormwater quality regulations through credit purchases to become more widely used in Virginia. Moving forward, we suggest more direct tracking of BMP costs to support comparisons between BMP costs across a range of types and conditions to credit purchases for meeting stormwater regulations.     

Urban sustainable energy development: A case study of the city of Philadelphia

Cities throughout the world are key sites for energy sustainability activities. However, analysis of such efforts to date has focused on a sub-set of atypical cities: early adopters and/or world cities. This article undertakes a case-study analysis for an ordinary city, Philadelphia, PA in order to assess the extent to which prior research provides adequate policy explanation for ordinary cities and to gain empirical insight on two under-researched aspects: policy actors, and the policy-making and implementation sites (action sites) for urban energy sustainability. Overall, the types of policy drivers, modes of governance, and enabling factors and barriers in the Philadelphia case fit with prior studies. Focusing on actors and action sites, however, offers insight on the city’s relative policy-making approach based on “non-controversy”, the key role of third-sector actors in both policy-making and implementation, and the diversification of action sites through external-level policy-making operationalised locally nevertheless at the expense of reduced control by urban actors. These findings lead to recommendations for urban energy sustainability research and practice.     

Designing and Implementing a Network for Sensing Water Quality and Hydrology across Mountain to Urban Transitions

Water resources are increasingly impacted by growing human populations, land use, and climate changes, and complex interactions among biophysical processes. In an effort to better understand these factors in semiarid northern Utah, United States, we created a real‐time observatory consisting of sensors deployed at aquatic and terrestrial stations to monitor water quality, water inputs, and outputs along mountain to urban gradients. The Gradients Along Mountain to Urban Transitions (GAMUT) monitoring network spans three watersheds with similar climates and streams fed by mountain winter‐derived precipitation, but that differ in urbanization level, land use, and biophysical characteristics. The aquatic monitoring stations in the GAMUT network include sensors to measure chemical (dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, nitrate, and dissolved organic matter), physical (stage, temperature, and turbidity), and biological components (chlorophyll‐a and phycocyanin). We present the logistics of designing, implementing, and maintaining the network; quality assurance and control of numerous, large datasets; and data acquisition, dissemination, and visualization. Data from GAMUT reveal spatial differences in water quality due to urbanization and built infrastructure; capture rapid temporal changes in water quality due to anthropogenic activity; and identify changes in biological structure, each of which are demonstrated via case study datasets.     

Method for Rapidly Assessing the Overtopping Risk of Bridges Due to Flooding over a Large Geographic Region

Hydraulic events are a leading cause of bridge failures. While these hydraulic events are accounted for in bridge design, changing environmental and land use conditions require continual updating of this risk. For example, after a bridge has been constructed, streamflow can change in unanticipated ways as a result of land use changes, geomorphic changes, and climate change. The objective of this research was to create a screening method able to quickly and inexpensively estimate overtopping risk across a collection of bridges based on the current streamflow conditions. The method uses a geographic information system, nationally available and standardized datasets, and recent regression equations to quantify bridge vulnerability to overtopping for flooding with varying return periods. This screening method could also be used to assist decision makers in updating the Waterway Adequacy field in the National Bridge Inventory, which indicates the overtopping risk of bridges. The method was applied to a portion of the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, United States that includes 475 bridges. The results of the analysis, when combined with transportation data for bridges, aid decision makers to assign further resources to complete more detailed analyses of bridges identified as being at risk for overtopping.     

Towards an international standard: The ISO/DIS 18504 standard on sustainable remediation

Sustainable remediation is the elimination and/or control of unacceptable risks in a safe and timely manner while optimizing the environmental, social, and economic value of the work. Forthcoming International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Standard on Sustainable Remediation will allow countries without the capacity to develop their own guidance to benefit from work done over the past decade by various groups around the world. The ISO standard has progressed through the committee draft (ISO/CD 18504) and draft international standard (ISO/DIS 18504) stages. The risk‐based approach to managing the legacy of historically contaminated soil and groundwater has been incorporated into policy, legislation, and practice around the world. It helps determine the need for remediation and the end point of such remediation. Remediation begins with an options appraisal that short lists strategies that could deliver the required reduction in risk. A remediation strategy comprises one or more remediation technologies that will deliver the safe and timely elimination and/or control of unacceptable risks. The ISO standard will help assessors identify the most sustainable among the shortlisted, valid alternative remediation strategies. Practitioners presenting case studies claiming to constitute sustainable remediation should now report how they have aligned their work with the new standard. Indicators are used to compare alternative remediation strategies. The simplest metric that allows a characteristic to act as an indicator should be chosen. Weightings indicators can become a contested exercise and should only be undertaken where there is a clear desire for it by stakeholders and a clear need for it in identifying a preferred strategy. The simplest means of ranking alternative remediation strategies should be adopted.     

Examining intra-urban variation in fine particle mass constituents using GIS and constrained factor analysis

Recent studies have used land use regression (LUR) techniques to explain spatial variability in exposures to PM_2.5 and traffic-related pollutants. Factor analysis has been used to determine source contributions to measured concentrations. Few studies have combined these methods, however, to construct and explain latent source effects. In this study, we derive latent source factors using confirmatory factor analysis constrained to non-negative loadings, and develop LUR models to predict the influence of outdoor sources on latent source factors using GIS-based measures of traffic and other local sources, central site monitoring data, and meteorology. We collected 3–4 day samples of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and PM_2.5 outside of 44 homes in summer and winter, from 2003 to 2005 in and around Boston, Massachusetts. Reflectance analysis, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF), and high-resolution inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) were performed on particle filters to estimate elemental carbon (EC), trace element, and water-soluble metals concentrations. Within our constrained factor analysis, a five-factor model was optimal, balancing statistical robustness and physical interpretability. This model produced loadings indicating long-range transport, brake wear/traffic exhaust, diesel exhaust, fuel oil combustion, and resuspended road dust. LUR models largely corroborated factor interpretations through covariate significance. For example, ‘long-range transport’ was predicted by central site PM_2.5 and season; ‘brake wear/traffic exhaust’ and ‘resuspended road dust’ by traffic and residential density; ‘diesel exhaust’ by percent diesel traffic on nearest major road; and ‘fuel oil combustion’ by population density. Results suggest that outdoor residential PM_2.5 source contributions can be partially predicted using GIS-based terms, and that LUR techniques can support factor interpretation for source apportionment. Together, LUR and factor analysis facilitate source identification, assessment of spatial and temporal variability, and more refined source exposure assignment for evaluation of source contributions to health outcomes in epidemiological studies.     

Further studies on the uptake of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) by polyurethane foam disk passive air samplers

Passive air samplers (PAS) can be used to monitor semi-volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere. Polyurethane foam (PUF) disks are a popular sampling medium because they have a high retention capacity for such compounds. This paper reports a highly time-resolved uptake study, to derive uptake rate data under field conditions, and investigate the effects of using different foam densities on the uptake rate. PUF disks were deployed alongside an active sampler, for periods of up to 12 weeks. The uptake rates were measured for a range of gas- and particle-bound persistent organic pollutants (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)), of different properties, to explore whether gas–particle partitioning affected uptake rate. Uptake rates for two different densities of foam (0.021 and 0.035 g cm^?3) were not statistically significantly different from each other. Uptake rates of light PCBs averaged ～6.5 m³ day^?1, somewhat higher than in previous studies; higher wind speeds and lower temperatures in this study are the likely reason for this difference. The study showed: i) the uptake rate of the compound with lowest K_OA considered in this study (PCB-28/31) declined in the later weeks, indicating an approach to equilibrium; ii) uptake rates of lighter BDEs and heavier PCBs (compounds of intermediate K_OA in this study) remain similar throughout the study period, indicating that they are not approaching equilibrium during the 12-week-study; iii) uptake rates were typically: ～8 m³ day^?1 for PCB-52; ～9.5 m³ day^?1 for PCB-95; ～11 m³ day^?1 for BDE-28 and ～2 m³ day^?1 BDE-99. The latter compound has an important particle-bound component and this lowers the sampling rate compared to predicted uptake rates for compounds which are in the gas phase only. It is shown that knowledge of gas–particle partitioning is needed to correct for this effect, and to improve predicted uptake rates.     

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.