Metapopulation persistence in a dynamic landscape: more habitat or better stewardship?

Habitat loss and fragmentation has created metapopulations where there were once continuous populations. Ecologists and conservation biologists have become interested in the optimal way to manage and conserve such metapopulations. Several authors have considered the effect of patch disturbance and recovery on metapopulation persistence, but almost all such studies assume that every patch is equally susceptible to disturbance. We investigated the influence of protecting patches from disturbance on metapopulation persistence, and used a stochastic metapopulation model to answer the question: How can we optimally trade off returns from protection of patches vs. creation of patches? We considered the problem of finding, under budgetary constraints, the optimal combination of increasing the number of patches in the metapopulation network vs. increasing the number of protected patches in the network. We discovered that the optimal trade-off is dependent upon all of the properties of the system: the species dynamics, the dynamics of the landscape, and the relative costs of each action. A stochastic model and accompanying methodology are provided allowing a manager to determine the optimal policy for small metapopulations. We also provide two approximations, including a rule of thumb, for determining the optimal policy for larger metapopulations. The method is illustrated with an example inspired by information for the greater bilby, Macrotis lagotis, inhabiting southwestern Queensland, Australia. We found that given realistic costs for each action, protection of patches should be prioritized over patch creation for improving the persistence of the greater bilby during the next 20 years.     

Costs and benefits of capsaicin-mediated control of gut retention in dispersers of wild chilies

A fundamental way in which animal-dispersed plants can influence the viability and distribution of dispersed seeds is through control of retention time in the guts of dispersers. Using two species of wild chilies and their dispersers, we examined how chemical and physical properties of fruits and seeds mediate this interaction. Capsicum chacoense is polymorphic for pungency, occurs in Bolivia, and is dispersed mostly by elaenias. Capsicum annuum is not polymorphic, occurs in Arizona (USA), and is dispersed mostly by thrashers. We first tested whether capsaicin, the substance responsible for the pungency of chilies, affects gut retention time of seeds in primary dispersers. Capsaicin slowed gut passage of seeds but did so in a manner that differed greatly between bird species because the constipative effects of capsaicin occurred only after an 80-minute time lag. Elaenias in Bolivia held only 6% of C. chacoense seeds for > 80 minutes, whereas thrashers in Arizona held 78% of C. annuum seeds for > 80 minutes. Next we examined the effects of retention time on seed viability and germination. Increased retention resulted in a greater proportion of seeds germinating in C. annuum, had no effects on non-pungent C. chacoense, and had negative effects on pungent C. chacoense. These divergent effects are explained by differences in seed coat morphology: seed coats of pungent C. chacoense are 10-12% thinner than those of the other two types of seeds. Thus, longer retention times damaged seeds with the thinnest seed coats. In C. annuum, seed viability remained high regardless of retention time, but germination increased with retention, suggesting a role for scarification. Thus, in C. annuum, fruit chemistry appears well matched with seed morphology and disperser physiology: capsaicin extends gut retention for most seeds, resulting in greater seed scarification and higher germination rates. Increased retention of pungent C. chacoense seeds is detrimental, but because the primary consumers have short retention times, capsaicin slows only a small proportion of seeds, minimizing negative effects. These results illustrate the importance of context in studies of fruit secondary metabolites. The same chemical can have different impacts on plant fitness depending on its morphological, physiological, and ecological context.     

Improving ozone modeling in complex terrain at a fine grid resolution: Part I – examination of analysis nudging and all PBL schemes associated with LSMs in meteorological model

Meteorological variables such as temperature, wind speed, wind directions, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) heights have critical implications for air quality simulations. Sensitivity simulations with five different PBL schemes associated with three different Land Surface Models (LSMs) were conducted to examine the impact of meteorological variables on the predicted ozone concentrations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.5 with local perspective. Additionally, the nudging analysis for winds was adopted with three different coefficients to improve the wind fields in the complex terrain at 4-km grid resolution. The simulations focus on complex terrain having valley and mountain areas at 4-km grid resolution. The ETA M–Y (Mellor–Yamada) and G–S (Gayno–Seaman) PBL schemes are identified as favorite options and promote O₃ formation causing the higher temperature, slower winds, and lower mixing height among sensitivity simulations in the area of study. It is found that PX (Pleim–Xiu) simulation does not always give optimal meteorological model performance. We also note that the PBL scheme plays a more important role in predicting daily maximum 8-h O₃ than land surface models. The results of nudging analysis for winds with three different increased coefficients' values (2.5, 4.5, and 6.0 × 10^?4 s^?1) over seven sensitivity simulations show that the meteorological model performance was enhanced due to improved wind fields, indicating the FDDA nudging analysis can improve model performance considerably at 4-km grid resolution. Specifically, the sensitivity simulations with the coefficient value (6.0 × 10^?4) yielded more substantial improvements than with the other values (2.5 and 4.5 × 10^?4). Hence, choosing the nudging coefficient of 6.0 × 10^?4 s^?1 for winds in MM5 may be the best choice to improve wind fields as an input, as well as, better model performance of CMAQ in the complex terrain area. As a result, a finer grid resolution is necessary to evaluate and access of CMAQ results for giving a detailed representation of meteorological and chemical processes in the regulatory modeling. A recommendation of optimal scheme options for simulating meteorological variables in the complex terrain area is made.     

Wind and wind power characteristics of the eastern and southern coastal and northern inland regions,South Africa

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The objective of this work is to understand the fluctuating nature of wind speed characteristics on different time scales and to find the long-term...