北京市西北城区取暖期环境大气中PM10的物理化学特征

根据监测资料探讨了北京市西北城区取暖期PM10 的逐日变化规律和日变化规律 .分别使用X射线衍射仪(XRD)和扫描电镜 (SEM)研究PM10 中的矿物成分及其微观形貌特征 .结果表明夜间PM10 浓度普遍高于白天 .XRD分析显示颗粒物粒度越细 ,其中所含的矿物种类越少 .SEM研究得出 ,单个PM10 颗粒类型可初步分为有链状集合体、簇状集合体、圆球状、片状和不规则形状等 5类 .从数量上看 ,PM10 主要来自燃煤和汽车尾气     

The use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques to predict population blood lead levels

Effective management of the risks posed by lead depends on an understanding of the relationship between exposure (the presence and accessibility of lead in the environment) and dose (blood lead levels). Our paper begins by outlining the type of information most valuable to a decision maker addressing the lead problem. A useful exposure-dose characterisation must address multiple contamination sources simultaneously, provide estimates of the number of people with blood lead levels exceeding critical thresholds, and assess the influence of modifying factors (e.g. the soil and dust ingestion rate) on population blood lead variability. We describe a pilot effort to develop an urban setting lead exposure-dose model, and use this model to compare three approaches for generating model input quantities: (1) worst-case estimates, (2) central estimates and (3) Monte Carlo simulation. Using the criteria outlined above, we find that the Monte Carlo technique provides the most useful model output. We describe the population blood lead level distribution generated by the model, as well as the relative influence of environmental and behavioural factors on the variability of the population distribution. Finally, we assess the impact of parameter uncertainty on the model output, and contend this type of information can help identify areas in which further empirical study would be most valuable.     

Evaluating the causal basis of ecological success within the scleractinia: an integral projection model approach

Many tropical corals have declined in abundance in the last few decades, and evaluating the causal basis of these losses is critical to understanding how coral reefs will change in response to ongoing environmental challenges. Motivated by the likelihood that marine environments will become increasingly unfavorable for coral growth as they warm and become more acidic (i.e., ocean acidification), it is reasonable to evaluate whether specific phenotypic traits of the coral holobiont are associated with ecological success (or failure) under varying environmental conditions including those that are adverse to survival. Initially, we asked whether it was possible to identify corals that are resistant or sensitive to such conditions by compiling quantitative measures of their phenotypic traits determined through empirical studies, but we found only weak phenotypic discrimination between ecological winners and losers, or among taxa. To reconcile this outcome with ecological evidence demonstrating that coral taxa are functionally unequal, we looked beyond the notion that phenotypic homogeneity arose through limitations of empirical data. Instead, we examined the validity of contemporary means of categorizing corals based on ecological success. As an alternative means to distinguish among functional groups of corals, we present a demographic approach using integral projection models (IPMs) that link organismal performance to demographic outcomes, such as the rates of population growth and responses to environmental stress. We describe how IPMs can be applied to corals so that future research can evaluate within a quantitative framework the extent to which changes in physiological performance influence the demographic underpinnings of ecological performance.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background,emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006–2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO₂ in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011–2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO₂ and NO_x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO₂ control scenario, and the 2010 NO_x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.     

Visitor Assessment of the Mandatory Alternative Transportation System at Zion National Park

Transportation infrastructure in national parks has historically been designed for the automobile. With more vehicles in the parks, visitors found themselves in circumstances more reminiscent of a city than a park. Traffic jams, overcrowding, illegal parking, horn honking, and idling vehicles became common, creating stress and contributing to air and noise pollution, the very things visitors were hoping to get away from. Park managers began searching for alternatives, including shuttle systems. Many national parks have implemented optional shuttle systems, but relatively few have completely closed roads to vehicles, transporting visitors on mandatory shuttles. Zion National Park instituted a mandatory shuttle system in May 2000 to relieve crowding and congestion in the main canyon and to protect natural resources. Taking a longitudinal approach, attributes of the shuttle (e.g., crowding, accessibility, freedom, efficiency, preference, and success) were assessed with experiential park factors (e.g., scenic beauty, naturalness, solitude, tranquility, air quality, and soundscape) in 2000, 2003, and 2010 by surveying shuttle-riding park visitors. While visitors initially reported a few reservations about the shuttle system, by 2003, the majority rated the system successful. Ratings of all shuttle-related variables, except crowding, improved over the decade. Improvements were greatest for freedom, accessibility, and efficiency. Multiple regression found overall shuttle success to be mediated by preference, freedom, accessibility, efficiency, and comfort. Experiential variables assessing park conditions followed a similar pattern, with improved ratings as the decade progressed. Results provide important insights into the visitor experience with mandatory alternative shuttle systems in national parks.     

Perceptions of Wildfire and Landscape Change in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Despite a broad literature addressing the human dimensions of wildfire, current approaches often compartmentalize results according to disciplinary boundaries. Further, relatively few studies have focused on the public’s evolving perceptions of wildfire as communities change over time. This paper responds to these gaps by exploring perceptions of landscape dynamics and wildfire between 2003 and 2007 using a typological framework of intersecting ecological, social, and cultural processes. Designed as a restudy, and using key informant interviews, this research allowed us to observe risk perception as they are related to community challenges and opportunities in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Risk perceptions were examined as an integral part of community and landscape change. Wildfire was a concern among informants in 2003 and remained a concern in 2007, although informants were less likely to discuss it as a major threat compared to the original study. Informants in the western part of the peninsula tended to express more concern about wildfire than their eastern counterparts largely due to their experiences with recent fires. Other important factors residents considered included changing forest fuels, the expanding wildland urban interface, and contrasting values of new residents. Underscoring the localized nature of risk perceptions, informants had difficulty describing the probability of a wildfire event in a geographical context broader than the community scale. This paper demonstrates how a holistic approach can help wildfire and natural resource professionals, community members, and other stakeholders understand the social and physical complexities influencing collective actions or inactions to address the threat of wildfire.     

Cooling Suits,Physiological Response,and Task Performance in Hot Environments for the Power Industry

Heat stress on workers working outdoors in the power industry may result in fatigue and deterioration in task performance. This research collected and analyzed data on task performance of workers working indoors and outdoors with and without a cooling suit. The task performance was compared on the basis of heart rate, oxygen consumption, tympanic temperature, subjective responses, productivity, and error rates. Based on One-Way Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA) results, a significantly lower estimated working oxygen consumption was observed (p < .001) when the cooling suit was worn. The productivity was higher while workers wore the cooling suit as compared to no cooling suit (p = .011) whereas the error rates were significantly lower(p < .001). Also a significantly lower self-reported discomfort was observed in the neck and shoulders while working wearing the cooling suit (p = .004). This study concluded that wearing a cooling suit while working outdoors was associated with physiological benefits as well as improved task performance of the study participants.     

A Method to Consider Whether Dams Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Stream Temperatures

This article provides a method for examining mesoscale water quality objectives downstream of dams with anticipated climate change using a multimodel approach. Coldwater habitat for species such as trout and salmon has been reduced by water regulation, dam building, and land use change that alter stream temperatures. Climate change is an additional threat. Changing hydroclimatic conditions will likely impact water temperatures below dams and affect downstream ecology. We model reservoir thermal dynamics and release operations (assuming that operations remain unchanged through time) of hypothetical reservoirs of different sizes, elevations, and latitudes with climate‐forced inflow hydrologies to examine the potential to manage water temperatures for coldwater habitat. All models are one dimensional and operate on a weekly timestep. Results are presented as water temperature change from the historical time period and indicate that reservoirs release water that is cooler than upstream conditions, although the absolute temperatures of reaches below dams warm with climate change. Stream temperatures are sensitive to changes in reservoir volume, elevation, and latitude. Our approach is presented as a proof of concept study to evaluate reservoir regulation effects on stream temperatures and coldwater habitat with climate change.