Biologische Tests von Bodenextrakten zur Erkennung von Bodenkontaminationen Einstiegswerte und Test-Fensterbreite

Initial values and windows of competence together with a biological test system are introduced to identify soil contaminations. Theinitial values are defined as the amount of extract equivalent to a defined amount of soil (gramm soil equivalent) and the same amount of test medium. This is equivalent to a complete replacement of the test medium with the soil being tested. Theeffect limits should be at least the double standard deviation of the blank values. Based on the values found when testing uncontaminated soils, a higher threshold value has to be established for some test systems. Should no relationship be found to a standard test medium (e.g. agar as a matrix in the Ames assay), the so-calledwindow of competence is defined. Within this window no natural response is found when ex amining uncontaminated soil. For mutagenicity tests, the double spontaneous reversion rate (reversion coefficient of 2) as related o the blank sample is evaluated as the effect limit.     

Fitness consequences of sexual cannibalism in female<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Argiope bruennichi</Emphasis>

The evolution of sexual cannibalism as the most extreme form of nuptial feeding is still poorly understood. Although increasing evidence suggests that female aggressiveness is related to other aspects of foraging behaviour, it is not clear whether the nutritional value of a male is sufficient to provide an adaptive significance for sexual cannibalism. A widely cited though rarely tested explanation is based on a paternal investment model, and predicts that consumption of a male results in increased female fecundity. The available evidence is either correlational or restricted to species with relatively large and potentially nutritious males, and different studies have come to different conclusions. Here we present a test of the paternal investment hypothesis using the very cannibalistic and highly size-dimorphic spider Argiope bruennichi. After a preset schedule, we had females consume none, one or two males independent of the female's cannibalistic behaviour. Consumption of male bodies did not result in any detectable fitness benefit for the female: neither the number of clutches, nor clutch size or hatching success were affected by consumption of males. The frequency of cannibalism was around 80%, independent of the female mating status. We did not observe male complicity, but cannibalism was associated with prolonged copulation. This suggests a sexually selected benefit of cannibalism for males. We conclude that the paternal investment hypothesis does not explain the existence of sexual cannibalism in A. bruennichi and probably not in other spider species with a pronounced sexual size dimorphism.Communicated by L. Simmons     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

The importance of biparental care in a precocial,monogamous bird,the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus)

Summary This study presents the first direct evidence of benefit derived from the male's parental effort during rearing of young in a monogamous, precocial bird species. We compared mothers accompanied by a mate (paired mothers) with single mothers, some of which were artificial widows, in a semicaptive flock of bar-headed geese (Anser indicus). Paired mothers were less often displaced by other birds and suffered fewer interruptions of brooding. Their goslings spent more time grazing and survived with a higher probability. Although one beneficial result of the male's parental effort may be the continued availability and survival of his mate, a more direct benefit arises from higher offspring survival between hatching and fledging.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.