Using stochastic volatility models to analyse weekly ozone averages in Mexico City

In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.     

Cement industry: sustainability, challenges and perspectives

Cement-based materials, such as concrete and mortars, are used in extremely large amounts. For instance, in 2009 concrete production was superior to 10 billion tons. Cement plays an important role in terms of economic and social relevance since it is fundamental to build and improve infrastructure. On the other hand, this industry is also a heavy polluter. Cement production releases 5–6% of all carbon dioxide generated by human activities, accounting for about 4% of global warming. It can release huge amounts of persistent organic pollutants, such as dioxins and heavy metals and particles. Energy consumption is also considerable. Cement production use approximately 0.6% of all energy produced in the United States. On the other hand, the chemistry underlying cement production and its applications can be very helpful to overcome these environmental issues. In terms of manufacture, there are many alternative materials that can be used to minimize carbon dioxide production and reduce energy consumption, such as calcium sulfoaluminates and β-Ca₂SiO₄—rich cements. Using residues from other industrial sectors can also improve the sustainability of cement industry. Under adequate conditions, waste materials such as tyres, oils, municipal solid waste and solvents can be used as supplementary fuel in cement plants. Concrete can be used for encapsulation of waste materials such as tyres, plastics and glasses. In this review, we discuss some aspects of the cement industry associated with environmental science. Other issues such as economic aspects, the chemistry of cement manufacture and its properties are also presented. Special attention is given to the role that cement chemistry can play in terms of sustainability. The most relevant aspects are outlined, such as the use of alternative materials, new possibilities and also the recycling of materials. It is also argued that an important aspect is the role of research and development necessary to improve cement sustainability.     

On-road and simulated driving: concurrent and discriminant validation

Introduction

A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.

Study 1

A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.

Results

Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.

Study 2

A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.

Results

The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.

Impact on industry

These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs.     

Spatially explicit modeling of overstory manipulations in young forests: Effects on stand structure and light

Young forests can be manipulated in diverse ways to enhance their ecological values. We used stem maps from two dense, second-growth stands in western Washington and a spatially explicit light model (tRAYci) to simulate effects of five silvicultural manipulations on diameter distribution, species composition, spatial patterning, and light availability. Each treatment removed 30% of the basal area, but differed in how trees were selected for removal. Three primary treatments were thin from below (removing the smallest trees), random thin (removing trees randomly), and gap creation (removing all trees in circles ∼1 tree height in diameter). Two additional treatments combined elements of these approaches: random ecological thin (a mixture of thin from below and random thin) and structured ecological thin (a mixture of thin from below and gap creation).     

Reduced effect of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease at the disease front

Pathogen-driven declines in animal populations are increasingly regarded as a major conservation issue. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is threatened with extinction by devil facial tumor disease, a unique transmissible cancer. The disease is transmitted through direct transfer of tumor cells, which is possible because the genetic diversity of Tasmanian devils is low, particularly in the major histocompatibility complex genes of the immune system. The far northwest of Tasmania now holds the last remaining disease-free wild devil populations. The recent discovery of unique major histocompatibility complex genotypes in the northwestern region of Tasmania has raised the possibility that some animals may be resilient to the disease. We examined the differences in the epidemiology and population effects of devil facial tumor disease at 3 well-studied affected sites in eastern Tasmania and 1 in western Tasmania (West Pencil Pine). In contrast to the 3 eastern sites, there has been no rapid increase in disease prevalence or evidence of population decline at West Pencil Pine. Moreover, this is the only onsite at which the population age structure has remained unaltered 4 years after the first detection of disease. The most plausible explanations for the substantial differences in population effects and epidemiology of the disease between eastern and western sites are geographic differences in genotypes or phenotypes of devils and functional differences between tumor strains in the 2 regions. We suggest that conservation efforts focus on identifying whether either or both these explanations are correct and then, if resistance alleles exist, to attempt to spread the resistant alleles into affected populations. Such assisted selection has rarely been attempted for the management of wildlife diseases, but it may be widely applicable.     

Biological impacts of ocean acidification: a postgraduate perspective on research priorities

Research into the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms has greatly increased during the past decade, as realization of the potential dramatic impacts has grown. Studies have revealed the multifarious responses of organisms to OA conditions, indicating a high level of intra- and interspecific variation in species’ ability to accommodate these alterations. If we are to provide policy makers with sound, scientific input regarding the expected consequences of OA, we need a broader understanding of these predicted changes. As a group of 20 multi-disciplinary postgraduate students from around the globe, with a study focus on OA, we are a strong representation of ‘next generation’ scientists in this field. In this unique cumulative paper, we review knowledge gaps in terms of assessing the biological impacts of OA, outlining directions for future research.     

Exposure to Selected Heavy Metals Through Water Ingestion in an Area Under the Influence of Tanneries

This study evaluated the potential toxicological risk posed to human health due to the exposure to heavy metals by water ingestion in an area affected by tanneries – the Cadeia-Feitoria hydrographic basin (Brazil). River water was collected at 10 sites, every 3 months, from July 1999 to April 2000. After acid digestion, total metal concentration was determined by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Zn), flame atomic absorption (Al, Fe, Pb, Mn), or cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry (Hg). Cr(VI) was complexed with diphenyl-carbazide and detected by UV–vis spectrometry. In order to quantify the risk of exposure, the risk assessment methodology employed by the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States was applied at a screening level. The assumed scenarios included extreme exposure patterns (ingestion of untreated water, conversion of Cr(III) to Cr(VI), temporal peaks of pollution). Fe, Al, Cd, Hg, and Pb were not included in the risk analysis, since they showed a low toxicity potential or were undetected in the samples. The selected metals presented Hazard Quotients < 1, in the following order of increasing risk: Cu < Cr(III) < Zn < Ni < Mn < Cr(VI). Hazard indexes, representing the additive effect of contaminants, were also low in the basin (< 1), but comparatively increased in the lower reach of Feitoria and Cadeia Rivers. Although noncarcinogenic risk levels did not suggest possible adverse toxicological effects to the human population, a considerable deviation from background conditions was observed downstream the area where tanneries are mainly located.     

Butyltin levels in several Portuguese coastal areas

This work aimed to report present levels (2007–2008 sampling) of tri- (TBT), di- (DBT), and monobutyltin (MBT) in surface sediments from 11 Portuguese coastal sites and discuss the evolution of BTs contamination in the last two decades. All the samples revealed quantifiable values of TBT, DBT, and MBT with total butyltin concentrations between 1 and 565 ng/g (of Sn in dry sediment). Maximum level of TBT, 66 ng/g, was observed in Sado estuary, at Lisnave site, in the proximity of a big shipyard. MBT decreased site by site by the same order as DBT and TBT did, but its concentrations were much higher in many cases, denoting that TBT contamination was much higher in the past. A comparison with the available previous data confirmed a marked decrease of TBT contamination all over the last years, indicating that the main sources of TBT in Portuguese coastwise stopped effectively.     

Defending the scientific integrity of conservation‐policy processes

Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia, and the United States demonstrate a similar trajectory. A perceived increase in scientific‐integrity abuses provokes concerted pressure by the scientific community, leading to efforts to improve scientific‐integrity protections under a new administration. However, protections are often inconsistently applied and are at risk of reversal under administrations publicly hostile to evidence‐based policy. We compared recent challenges to scientific integrity to determine what aspects of scientific input into conservation policy are most at risk of political distortion and what can be done to strengthen safeguards against such abuses. To ensure the integrity of outbound communications from government scientists to the public, we suggest governments strengthen scientific integrity policies, include scientists’ right to speak freely in collective‐bargaining agreements, guarantee public access to scientific information, and strengthen agency culture supporting scientific integrity. To ensure the transparency and integrity with which information from nongovernmental scientists (e.g., submitted comments or formal policy reviews) informs the policy process, we suggest governments broaden the scope of independent reviews, ensure greater diversity of expert input and transparency regarding conflicts of interest, require a substantive response to input from agencies, and engage proactively with scientific societies. For their part, scientists and scientific societies have a responsibility to engage with the public to affirm that science is a crucial resource for developing evidence‐based policy and regulations in the public interest.     

Conservation mycology in Australia and the potential role of citizen science

Fungi are undoubtedly important for ecosystem functioning; however, they have been omitted or given scant attention in most biodiversity policy documents, management plans, and formal conservation schedules throughout the world. This oversight may be due to a general lack of awareness in the scientific community and compounded by a scarcity of mycology‐associated curricula at the tertiary level and a lack of mycologists in research institutions. Although molecular techniques advance the systematic cataloging of fungi and facilitate insights into fungal communities, the scarcity of professional mycologists in the environmental sciences hampers conservation efforts. Conversely, citizen science initiatives are making significant contributions to the mycology discipline by increasing awareness and extending the scope of fungal surveys. Future research by professional and amateur mycologists into the distribution of fungi and their function in ecosystems will help identify wider and more effective conservation goals.