Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: an example in asynchronously breeding birds

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid.     

AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: some background,observations, and comparisons

We briefly outline the information-theoretic (I-T) approaches to valid inference including a review of some simple methods for making formal inference from all the hypotheses in the model set (multimodel inference). The I-T approaches can replace the usual t tests and ANOVA tables that are so inferentially limited, but still commonly used. The I-T methods are easy to compute and understand and provide formal measures of the strength of evidence for both the null and alternative hypotheses, given the data. We give an example to highlight the importance of deriving alternative hypotheses and representing these as probability models. Fifteen technical issues are addressed to clarify various points that have appeared incorrectly in the recent literature. We offer several remarks regarding the future of empirical science and data analysis under an I-T framework.     

Graphical spatial models: a new view on interpreting spatial pattern

Graphical models provide an important tool for facilitating communication between scientists, decision-makers, and statisticians—many complicated ecological processes can be described in terms of “box-and-arrow” conceptual diagrams (e.g., Shipley in Cause and correlation in biology: a user’s guide to path analysis, structural equations and causal inferences, Cambridge Universtiy Press, Cambridge, 2000; Clark and Gelfand TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 21:375–380, 2006). In particular, problems in landscape ecology often involve modeling relationships among multiple physical and/or biological variables that may operate on differing spatial scales (e.g., Rossi et al. in Ecol Monographs 62:277–314, 1992; Legendre et al. in Ecography 25:601–615, 2002; Overmars et al. in Ecol Model 164:257–270, 2003; Brown and Spector in J Appl Ecol 45:1639–1648, 2008; Koniak and Noy-Meir in Ecol Model 220:1148–1158, 2008). These problems are inherently multivariate, though researchers commonly rely on univariate methods, such as spatial regression models, to address them. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate method—graphical spatial models—that extends path analysis to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in one or more variables in a directed graph. We show how both exogenous and endogenous ecological processes as defined by Legendre et al. (Ecography 25:601–615, 2002) and Lichstein et al. (Ecol Monographs 72:445–463, 2002) can be represented in a graph. Most importantly, we show how to translate graphs representing these ecological processes into statistically estimable models. We motivate our theoretical results using an example of stream health data from the Willamette Valley, Oregon. For these data we are interested in the spatial pattern within both riparian land use and an index of stream health, and whether there is an association between land use and stream health, after accounting for these spatial patterns. We use a graphical spatial model to address these ecological questions simultaneously. We find that the health of a stream decreases as the percent of developed land within a 120-m riparian buffer increases; interestingly, there is only evidence of spatial pattern within land use.     

On-road and simulated driving: concurrent and discriminant validation

Introduction

A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.

Study 1

A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.

Results

Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.

Study 2

A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.

Results

The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.

Impact on industry

These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs.     

Ecological and physiological controls of species composition in green macroalgal blooms

Green macroalgal blooms have substantially altered marine community structure and function, specifically by smothering seagrasses and other primary producers that are critical to commercial fisheries and by creating anoxic conditions in enclosed embayments. Bottom-up factors are viewed as the primary drivers of these blooms, but increasing attention has been paid to biotic controls of species composition. In Washington State, USA, blooms are often dominated by Ulva spp. intertidally and Ulvaria obscura subtidally. Factors that could cause this spatial difference were examined, including competition, grazer preferences, salinity, photoacclimation, nutrient requirements, and responses to nutrient enrichment. Ulva specimens grew faster than Ulvaria in intertidal chambers but not significantly faster in subtidal chambers. Ulva was better able to acclimate to a high-light environment and was more tolerant of low salinity than Ulvaria. Ulvaria had higher tissue N content, chlorophyll, chlorophyll b: chlorophyll a, and protein content than Ulva. These differences suggest that nitrogen availability could affect species composition. A suite of five grazers preferred Ulva to Ulvaria in choice experiments. Thus, bottom-up factors allow Ulva to dominate the intertidal zone while resistance to grazers appears to allow Ulvaria to dominate the subtidal zone. While ulvoid algae are in the same functional-form group, they are not functionally redundant.     

RESEARCH: Land Use Characteristics and Water Quality: A Methodology for Valuing of Forested Buffers

In this study, water quality and basin characteristics data from different basins of the Fish River basin, Baldwin County, Alabama, were used to develop a valuation model. This valuation model is based on the effectiveness of “contributing zones” identified and delineated using methods described by Basnyat and others (Environmental Management]1999] 23(4):539–549). The “contributing zone” delineation model suggests that depending on soil permeability, soil moisture, depth to water table, slope, and vegetation, buffer widths varying from 16 m to 104 m must be maintained to assimilate or detain more than 90% of the nitrate passing through the buffers. The economic model suggests the value of retiring lands (to create the buffers) varies from $0 to $3067 per ha, depending on the types of crops currently grown. The total value of retiring all areas identified by the contributing zone model is $1,125,639 for the study area. This land value will then form the basis for estimates of the costs of land management options for improving (or maintaining) water quality throughout the study area.     

Preferences for different nitrogen forms by coexisting plant species and soil microbes

The growing awareness that plants might use a variety of nitrogen (N) forms, both organic and inorganic, has raised questions about the role of resource partitioning in plant communities. It has been proposed that coexisting plant species might be able to partition a limited N pool, thereby avoiding competition for resources, through the uptake of different chemical forms of N. In this study, we used in situ stable isotope labeling techniques to assess whether coexisting plant species of a temperate grassland (England, UK) display preferences for different chemical forms of N, including inorganic N and a range of amino acids of varying complexity. We also tested whether plants and soil microbes differ in their preference for different N forms, thereby relaxing competition for this limiting resource. We examined preferential uptake of a range of 13C15N-labeled amino acids (glycine, serine, and phenylalanine) and 15N-labeled inorganic N by coexisting grass species and soil microbes in the field. Our data show that while coexisting plant species simultaneously take up a variety of N forms, including inorganic N and amino acids, they all showed a preference for inorganic N over organic N and for simple over the more complex amino acids. Soil microbes outcompeted plants for added N after 50 hours, but in the long-term (33 days) the proportion of added 15N contained in the plant pool increased for all N forms except for phenylalanine, while the proportion in the microbial biomass declined relative to the first harvest. These findings suggest that in the longer-term plants become more effective competitors for added 15N. This might be due to microbial turnover releasing 15N back into the plant-soil system or to the mineralization and subsequent plant uptake of 15N transferred initially to the organic matter pool. We found no evidence that soil microbes preferentially utilize any of the N forms added, despite previous studies showing that microbial preferences for N forms vary over time. Our data suggest that coexisting plants can outcompete microbes for a variety of N forms, but that such plant species show similar preferences for inorganic over organic N.     

Collateral geochemical impacts of agricultural nitrogen enrichment from 1963 to 1985: a southern Wisconsin ground water depth profile

In this study, we used chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) age-dating to investigate the geochemistry of N enrichment within a bedrock aquifer depth profile beneath a south central Wisconsin agricultural landscape. Measurement of N(2)O and excess N(2) allowed us to reconstruct the total NO(3)(-) and total nitrogen (TN) leached to ground water and was essential for tracing the separate influences of soil nitrification and ground water denitrification in the collateral geochemical chronology. We identify four geochemical impacts due to a steady ground water N enrichment trajectory (39 +/- 2.2 micromol L(-1) yr(-1), r(2) = 0.96) over two decades (1963-1985) of rapidly escalating N use. First, as a by-product of soil nitrification, N(2)O entered ground water at a stable (r(2) = 0.99) mole ratio of 0.24 +/- 0.007 mole% (N(2)O-N/NO(3)-N). The gathering of excess N(2)O in ground water is a potential concern relative to greenhouse gas emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion after it discharges to surface water. Second, excess N(2) measurements revealed that NO(3)(-) was a prominent, mobile, labile electron acceptor comparable in importance to O(2.) Denitrification transformed 36 +/- 15 mole% (mol mol(-1) x 100) of the total N within the profile to N(2) gas, delaying exceedance of the NO(3)(-) drinking water standard by approximately 6 yr. Third, soil acids produced from nitrification substantially increased the concentrations of major, dolomitic ions (Ca, Mg, HCO(3)(-)) in ground water relative to pre-enrichment conditions. By 1985, concentrations approximately doubled; by 2006, CFC age-date projections suggest concentrations may have tripled. Finally, the nitrification induced mobilization of Ca may have caused a co-release of P from Ca-rich soil surfaces. Dissolved P increased from an approximate background value of 0.02 mg L(-1) in 1963 to 0.07 mg L(-1) in 1985. The CFC age-date projections suggest the concentration could have reached 0.11 mg L(-1) in ground water recharge by 2006. These results highlight an intersection of the N and P cycles potentially important for managing the quality of ground water discharged to surface water.     

Is it pay levels or pay raises that matter to fairness and turnover?

Two studies examined the relationship between actual pay and distributive and procedural justice, and the extent to which these perceptions were related to two important pay satisfaction dimensions, pay level and pay raise, and ultimately, impacted turnover. For each study the measures of pay and justice variables were obtained on a cross‐sectional basis, while the measure of turnover was necessarily lagged. Results showed that distributive justice mediated the relationship between pay and both pay level satisfaction and pay raise satisfaction. Furthermore, distributive justice was a stronger predictor of pay level satisfaction; whereas procedural justice was a stronger predictor of pay raise satisfaction. Procedural justice also played a moderating role in Study 2. The study also showed that only pay raise satisfaction was significantly and negatively related to turnover in Study 1, and to turnover via turnover intention in Study 2. Results support the value of considering pay satisfaction as multidimensional when evaluating justice issues in a compensation context. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enrichment of fetal nucleated cells from maternal blood: Model test system using cord blood

The presence of small numbers of fetal nucleated red cells in the maternal circulation has been a stimulus for the development of technologies for non-invasive prenatal genetic analysis. Our laboratory has been assessing the feasibility of density gradient centrifugation followed by magnetic activated cell sorting (MACS) of cells expressing CD32 and CD45, to deplete maternal nucleated blood cells. We have examined the efficiency of each of the steps of this procedure using cord blood from term pregnancies as a source of nucleated red blood cells. Cord blood was shown to contain highly variable numbers of nucleated red cells. Three different density gradients were examined. There was no major difference in the performances of the double and triple gradients. Density gradient centrifugation resulted in enrichments of nucleated red blood cells of about 1000-fold relative to the total cell count. However, it was apparent that the selection of the cell layers which were most enriched for these cells would result in significant losses of nucleated red cells in other layers. MACS sorting of cells using CD45 resulted in white cell depletions ranging from 7 to 34-fold. These data provide a foundation for comparison with other methods and for optimization of the MACS technique.