Collapse and reorganization of a food web of Mwanza Gulf, Lake Victoria

Lake Victoria in East Africa is the world's second largest freshwater system. Over the past century the ecosystem has undergone drastic changes. Some 30 years after the introduction of Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in the 1950s, the highly diverse community of native haplochromines collapsed, leaving a system dominated by only four species: the native cyprinid dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea) and shrimp (Caridina nilotica), as well as the introduced Nile perch and Nile tilapia. More recently, an unexpected resurgence of haplochromines has been reported. To understand these changes in terms of ecosystem functioning and of changes in growth of trophic groups, we created mass balances of the food web near Mwanza, Tanzania, before, during, and after the Nile perch boom (1977, 1987, and 2005), using the application ECOPATH. We connected these mass balances with a dynamic model assuming linear trends in net growth rates of the trophic groups. Our analysis suggests that the Nile perch boom initially altered the biomass distribution over trophic levels. Also, results indicate that not only fishing but also changes at the detritivores' trophic level might have played an important role in driving changes in the system. Both the mass balances and the dynamic model connecting them reveal that, after a major distortion during the Nile perch boom, the biomass distribution over the main trophic levels had largely recovered its original (1977) state by 2005. However, no such return appeared in terms of community structure. Biodiversity in the new state is dramatically lower, consisting of introduced species and a few native surviving species. We conclude that at an aggregate level Lake Victoria's ecosystem has proved to be resilient in the sense that its overall trophic structure has apparently recovered after a major perturbation. By contrast, its intricate functional structure and associated biodiversity have proved to be fragile and seem unlikely to recover.     

Midwest U.S. landscape change to 2020 driven by biofuel mandates

Meeting future biofuel targets set by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) will require a substantial increase in production of corn. The Midwest, which has the highest overall crop production capacity, is likely to bear the brunt of the biofuel-driven changes. In this paper, we set forth a method for developing a possible future landscape and evaluate changes in practices and production between base year (BY) 2001 and biofuel target (BT) 2020. In our BT 2020 Midwest landscape, a total of 25 million acres (1 acre = 0.40 ha) of farmland was converted from rotational cropping to continuous corn. Several states across the Midwest had watersheds where continuous corn planting increased by more than 50%. The output from the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development (CARD) econometric model predicted that corn grain production would double. In our study we were able to get within 2% of this expected corn production. The greatest increases in corn production were in the Corn Belt as a result of conversion to continuous corn planting. In addition to changes to cropping practices as a result of biofuel initiatives we also found that urban growth would result in a loss of over 7 million acres of productive farmland by 2020. We demonstrate a method which successfully combines economic model output with gridded land cover data to create a spatially explicit detailed classification of the landscape across the Midwest. Understanding where changes are likely to take place on the landscape will enable the evaluation of trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services allowing proactive conservation and sustainable production for human well-being into the future.     

Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds

Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures.     

Use of Pb blast furnace slag as a partial substitute for fine aggregate in cement mortar

The technical properties of cement mortars containing natural fine aggregate that is replaced by lead blast furnace slag at 25 and 35% level were assessed at fixed water-to-cement (W/C) ratio and at fixed flow table value. The leachabilities of some toxic elements from the cement mortars were also assessed to test the environmental suitability of the slag for use in preparation of cement mortar. At fixed W/C ratio, the strength of the mortar decreased with increase of the slag content. On the other hand, at fixed consistency, strength increased with increasing slag content in the mortar composition. The concentrations of some toxic elements in the leachates collected from the mortars containing slag were slightly higher than for the control mortar, but the concentrations in the leachates remained within the regulatory limits for recycling in construction applications. For most elements, leaching from a mortar containing 35% of slag was similar to that from a mortar containing 25% of slag. Therefore, 35% of natural sand can be beneficially replaced with Pb slag to produce cement mortar without affecting the mechanical and leaching properties studied in this work.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon release from a soil matrix in the in vitro gastrointestinal tract

Soil ingestion is an important exposure route by which immobile soil contaminants enter the human body. We assessed polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) release from a contaminated soil, containing 49 mg PAH kg(-1), using a SHIME (Simulator of the Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem) reactor comprising the stomach, duodenal, and colon compartments. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon release was defined as that fraction remaining in the digest supernatant after centrifugation for 5 min at 1500 x g. The PAH release in the stomach digest was only 0.44% of the total PAH present in soil, resulting in PAH concentrations of 23 micrograms PAH L(-1) chyme. The lower PAH releases in duodenum (0.13%) and colon (0.30%) digests, compared with the stomach digest, were thought to be attributed to combined complexation and precipitation with bile salts, dissolved organic matter, or colon microbiota. We studied these complexation processes in an intestinal suspension more in depth by preparing mixtures of 9-anthracenepropionic acid, a Bacillus subtilis culture, and cholin as model compounds for PAHs, organic matter, and bile salts, respectively. Bile salts or organic matter in the aqueous phase initially enhance PAH desorption from soil. However, desorbed PAHs may form large aggregates with bile and organic matter, lowering the freely dissolved PAH fraction in the supernatant. Using the model compounds, mathematical equations were developed and validated to predict PAH complexation processes in the gastrointestinal tract. Contaminant release and subsequent complexation in the gut is an important prerequisite to intestinal absorption and thus bioavailability of that contaminant. The data from this research may help in understanding the processes to which PAHs are subjected in the gastrointestinal tract, before intestinal absorption.     

Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. II. Monte Carlo analysis

A Monte Carlo analysis of two sequential GIS-embedded submodels, which evaluate the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs, was performed to allow for variability of environmental conditions that was not contained in the spatial model inputs. The results from this analysis were compared to the results from the deterministic model presented in part I of this paper. It was concluded that, although the variability in the model results due to within-gridcell variability of the model inputs was considerable, the prediction of the areas where SRC and energy conversion is potentially profitable was robust. If the additional variability in the model input that is not contained in the input maps is also taken into account, the SRC production and energy conversion appears to be potentially profitable at more locations for both the small scale and large scale production scenarios than the model predicted using the deterministic model.     

Consumer Attitudes Towards the Development of Animal-Friendly Husbandry Systems

Recent policy developments in the area of livestock husbandry have suggested that, from the perspective of optimizing animal welfare, new animal husbandry systems should be developed that provide opportunities for livestock animals to be raised in environments where they are permitted to engage in “natural behavior.” It is not known whether consumers regard animal husbandry issues as important, and whether they differentiate between animal husbandry and other animal welfare issues. The responsibility for the development of such systems is allocated jointly between farmers, regulators, different actors in the food chain, and consumers. This research focuses on understanding consumer attitudes and preferences regarding the development and introduction of such systems, to ensure that they are acceptable to consumers as well as producers, regulators, and scientists. Consumer perceptions of animal welfare and animal husbandry practices were evaluated using quantitative consumer survey, which focused on two animal husbandry issues – farmed pigs and farmed fish. Following pilot work, 1000 representative Dutch consumers were sampled about their attitudes to either pig or fish husbandry. The results indicated that consumers think about animal welfare in terms of two broad categories related to their health and living environment, but do not think about welfare issues at a more detailed level. Greater concern was expressed about the welfare of pigs compared to fish. Consumer trust in labeling also emerged as an important issue, since consumers need to trust different food chain actors with responsibility for promoting animal welfare, and are reluctant to consider the details of animal husbandry systems. As a consequence, a transparent, enforceable, and traceable monitoring system for animal welfare friendly products is likely to be important for consumers.     

Integrating industrial ecology principles into a set of environmental sustainability indicators for technology assessment

This paper focuses on the environmental component of sustainability of technology, taking into account the role of industrial ecology. Assessment of environmental sustainability of technology traditionally focuses on immediate impact of technology on the environment through quantifying resource extraction and generated emissions. However, technology does not only exchange materials with the environment but also with the industrial society as a whole, the so-called industrial metabolism. A higher compatibility of a specific technology with the industrial system, as studied in industrial ecology, can result in lower resource extraction and reduced waste emission, indirectly contributing to a better environmental sustainability.Starting from the considerations above and based on the second law of thermodynamics, the paper presents a set of five environmental sustainability indicators for the assessment of products and production pathways, integrating industrial ecology principles. The indicators, all scaled between 0 and 1, take into account: (1) renewability of resources; (2) toxicity of emissions; (3) input of used materials; (4) recoverability of products at the end of their use; (5) process efficiency.The applicability of the elaborated set of indicators is illustrated for different production pathways of alcohols (petrochemical and oleochemical based), polyethylene end-of-life options and electricity production from non-renewable (natural gas and fossil oil) and renewable resources (hydropower, photovoltaic conversion of solar irradiation).