SOME PROBLEMS IN STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

In order to decrease the uncertainty that results in water resource planning and management studies due to the assumed recurrence of historical hydrological sequences, considerable study of stochastic processes in hydrology has taken place during the past 10 or 15 years. The general objective has been to develop a capability for generating a number of valid sequences, each of which could as resonably occur as could a recurrence of past events. A number of serious problems have been encountered, the consequence of which has been a serious lag in the application of stochastic processes to real planning and management problems. These problems include: a. an inability to generate droughts in some cases that are as extreme as have occurred historically, b. the generation of inconsistent values of stream flow at 2 locations on the same stream, c. the lack of mathematical techniques for the management of incomplete data sets, d. a great increase in the required computation for planning and management studies, and e. theoretical and computational difficulties in expanding the scope of stochastic hydrology from monthly quantities to short-period quantities. This paper discusses these problems and various approaches used in attempting their solution.     

Gender aspects in the management of water

Water resources increasingly need to meet the demands and needs of different sectors and to be protected against deteriorating quantity and quality. This paper discusses the different interests of men and women in the use of water resources, and what effects the neglect of female interests in particular, has on development. The authors stress that besides class and ethnic differences, the different interests of men and women also play a role in the cross-sectoral management of water resources. Water pricing, property rights and management structures are three key aspects where a gender approach is required. In the management of water resources in smaller catchment areas, several instruments for a gender approach have been developed. Discussed are gender specific participatory research, planning and tools, gender in management organizations and task divisions and involvement of multidisciplinary teams with a gender orientation.     

Health implications of the Tumaco earthquake, Colombia, 1979

A retrospective study of the effects of the Tumaco earthquake of 1979 shows a smaller number of deaths and injuries than in earthquakes of similar magnitude that have occurred elsewhere, which is probably related to the type of building. Most of the deaths were caused by a tsunami. Proportionally the mortality was higher in the 0 to 4 age group. Among the injured, most of the lesions were minor. Morbidity was higher in the over 45 years age group, and lower among the "under-fives." There was an evident need for a simple "disaster medical record card." Coordination among the different relief agencies could have been better.     

Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030

The National Environmental Assessment Agency of the RIVM in the Netherlands is obliged to report on future trends in the environment and nature every 4 years. The last report, Nature Outlook 2, evaluated the effects of four alternative socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Spatially detailed land-use maps are needed to assess effects on nature and landscape. The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments. It was the first time in the history of our outlooks that consistent, spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands for 2030 were constructed from national economic and demographic scenarios. Each map represents a direct reflection of model input and assumptions. The maps do not show the most probable developments in the Netherlands but describe the possible change in land use if Dutch society were to develop according to one of the four scenarios. The large (societal) uncertainties are reflected in the total set of future land-use maps. The application of a land-use model such as the Environment Explorer ensures that all relevant aspects of a scenario, i.e. economic and demographic developments, zoning policies and urban growth, are integrated systematically into one consistent framework.     

Quality assurance for the measurements and monitoring of radioactivity in the environment

During the Fifth Framework Programme (FP5) of the European Commission--according to an institutional programme in support to the policy of the European Commission for the implementation of Art. 35 and 36 of the Euratom Treaty as well as in the framework of the OSPAR Convention for the protection of marine environment of the north-east Atlantic--at the Institute for Transuranium Elements (ITU--General Directorate Joint Research Centre--European Commission), a reference laboratory for the measurement of radioactivity in the environment (MaRE laboratory) has been set up. In this paper, the principles and philosophy in order to improve the quality and reliability of analytical data for the measurement and monitoring of radioactivity in the environment under a quality assurance (QA) programme are presented. Examples of how a QA programme at the MaRE laboratory is developed and applied are given. Internal and external quality control (QC) programmes are also discussed.     

Land Evaluation for Maize Based on Fuzzy Set and Interpolation

The objective of this article is to apply fuzzy set and interpolation techniques for land suitability evaluation for maize in Northern Ghana. Land suitability indices were computed at point observations using the Semantic Import (SI) model, whereas spatial interpolation was carried out by block kriging. Interpolated land suitability shows a high correlation (R2 = 0.87) with observed maize yield at the village level. This indicates that land suitability is closely related to maize yield in the study area. Membership functions were further used to assess the degree of limitation of land characteristics to maize. Sixty percent of the data has membership functions ranging from 0.23 for ECEC to 1.00 for drainage. ECEC, organic C, and clay are the major constraints to maize yield. The use of the fuzzy technique is helpful for land suitability evaluation, especially in applications in which subtle differences in soil quality are of a major interest. Furthermore, the use of kriging that exploits spatial variability of data is useful in producing continuous land suitability maps and in estimating uncertainties associated with predicted land suitability indices.     

Modeling flow and nitrate fate at catchment scale in Brittany (France)

In the intensive pig-farming (Sus scrofa) area of Brittany (western France), many surface and subsurface water resources are contaminated by nitrate (NO3) with concentrations that chronically exceed the European Community 50 mg L(-1) drinking standard. To ensure sustainable water supply, the fate of NO3 must be considered in both surface water and ground water. The fate of N was investigated in a Britain catchment, the Co?t-Dan watershed, with an integrated management tool: the hydrological SWAT model coupled with the ground water model MODFLOW, and its companion contaminant and solute transport model MT3DMS. The model was validated with respect to water quantity during a 6-yr period and for the NO3 concentration during a 44-mo period, at two gauging stations in the catchment. The coupled models reproduced accurately the measurements. At the basin outlet, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.88 for monthly flow for the entire period and 0.87 for monthly N load. Alternative scenarios were simulated and showed potential benefits of decreasing manure application from 210 to 170 kg N ha(-1) as required by the European Commission Nitrates Directive.     

Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe

Although arable landscapes have a long history, environmental problems have accelerated in recent decades. The effects of these changes are usually externalized, being greater for society as a whole than for the farms on which they operate, and incentives to correct them are therefore largely lacking. Arable landscapes are valued by society beyond the farming community, but increased mechanization and farm size, simplification of crop rotations, and loss of non-crop features, have led to a reduction in landscape diversity. Low intensity arable systems have evolved a characteristic and diverse fauna and flora, but development of high input, simplified arable systems has been associated with a decline in biodiversity. Arable intensification has resulted in loss of non-crop habitats and simplification of plant and animal communities within crops, with consequent disruption to food chains and declines in many farmland species. Abandonment of arable management has also led to the replacement of such wildlife with more common and widespread species. Soils have deteriorated as a result of erosion, compaction, loss of organic matter and contamination with pesticides, and in some areas, heavy metals. Impacts on water are closely related to those on soils as nutrient and pesticide pollution of water results from surface runoff and subsurface flow, often associated with soil particles, which themselves have economic and ecological impacts. Nitrates and some pesticides also enter groundwater following leaching from arable land. Greatest impacts are associated with simplified, high input arable systems. Intensification of arable farming has been associated with pollution of air by pesticides, NO2 and CO2, while the loss of soil organic matter has reduced the system's capacity for carbon sequestration. International trade contributes to global climate change through long distance transport of arable inputs and products. The EU Rural Development Regulation (1257/99) provides an opportunity to implement measures for alleviating ecological impacts of arable management through a combination of cross-compliance and agri-environment schemes. To alleviate the problems described in this paper, such measures should take account of opportunities for public/private partnerships and should integrate social, cultural, economic and ecological objectives for multifunctional land use.     

Origin of the Henze solution/precipitate from morula cells of the blood of the ascidian Phallusia mammillata

 The "Henze solution", derived originally from the aqueous extraction of pelleted whole blood from the ascidian Phallusia mammillata, was examined using spectral studies. The aqueous extraction of fractionated blood cells including compartment cells, signet ring cells, and morula cells obtained using cell separation techniques were also examined. It was found that this Henze solution, and the Henze precipitate itself derived from this solution, emanated solely from the morula cells. Furthermore, it was found that this solution is formed independently of the vanadium metal ions otherwise associated with the vanadocytes. Observation of the Henze precipitate by light microscopy shows that this material partially forms crystallites or microglasses. Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 28 February 2000