The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

基于GEV干旱指数和DFA方法的苏北地区季节性干旱研究

为分析近年来江苏省苏北地区季节性干旱灾害特征,利用苏北五市1989~2013年的逐月降水量资料,建立月降水量的广义极值分布函数,通过分析广义极值干旱指数(GEVI),研究苏北五市近25a的季节性干旱分布和干旱等级的时空变化特点。在此基础上,利用去趋势波动分析方法(DFA)对苏北五市月平均降水量的周期性规律进行研究。结果表明,苏北五市的月降水量均服从广义极值Fréchet概率分布,且具有从西北(徐州)地区向东南沿海(盐城)地区递增的空间分布特征,整体上属于干旱灾害频发的地区,且以轻旱为主且季节性特征明显。苏北五市的月降水量存在幂律相关性,即降水量具有较强的正长程相关性,因此,未来苏北地区干旱的总体趋势将与过去特征正相关。     

丹江口水库表层沉积物不同形态氮的赋存特征及其生物有效性

为了揭示丹江口水库沉积物氮空间分布特征及其生物有效性,采用连续分级提取法研究了表层沉积物中可交换态氮(Exchangeable nitrogen,EN)、酸解态氮(Acid hydrolysable nitrogen,HN)及残渣态氮(Residue nitrogen,RN)的赋存特征,同时结合生物可利用态氮的含量,探讨了各形态氮对生物可利用态氮的贡献。结果表明,丹江口水库沉积物中总氮(Total nitrogen,TN)在425~5796 mg/kg之间,平均为1 319.32 mg/kg,其中EN、HN和RN的平均值相对比例为2.15∶1.95∶1,且各形态氮含量的空间分布呈入库河流大于库区开阔区域的特征,尤其在丹江、老灌河以及犟河-堵河入库口的含量较大。潜在矿化氮(Potential mineralized nitrogen,PMN)含量在40.20~1 468.95 mg/kg之间,平均为275.06 mg/kg,其中EN对丹江口水库沉积物PMN的贡献较大,比例在19.85%~90.80%之间,平均为63.47%。各形态氮在不同的水环境条件下发生迁移转化,保持着水-沉积物界面氮的动态平衡。     

近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征

基于洞庭湖流域84个气象站点1962~2013年的逐日气象资料,利用综合干旱指数(CI)对洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时间和空间特征进行分析。结果表明:在过去52 a,区域性干旱强度较强的时段以夏季、秋季、夏秋和秋冬时节为主;区域干旱强度在春季、夏季、夏秋、冬季呈上升趋势;秋冬时节和年干旱强度变化不明显;春夏时节、夏秋时节、秋冬时节和冬春时节的平均干旱强度比春、夏、秋、冬单个季节的平均干旱强度大。小波分析表明,区域干旱强度的周期以10a为主周期,5 a和22 a为次周期。近52 a来,历年干旱站次比主要集中于10%~30%之间,多表现为区域性干旱,以夏季和秋季的干旱范围较大;干旱频率高发时期主要为夏季、夏秋时节和秋季。干旱频率高发地主要以流域的南部山地和北部的洞庭湖平原为主,西北部的山地发生干旱相对较少,衡邵盆地随季节变化干旱频率易发生高低值转换。     

Economic and environmental value stream map (E2VSM) simulation for multi-product manufacturing systems

Value stream mapping (VSM) is a well-accepted tool within lean manufacturing concept which is often used for analysing and designing the flow of materials and information required to manufacture a product. However, the analysis is static and single product oriented, which fails to cope with either the variation of production plan or a multi-product environment. In addition, the environmental impact of a manufacturing system is highly associated with the dynamic consumption of energy and resources. Despite the recent integration of VSM with simulation or environmental studies (in the domain of energy efficiency), still neglected is the dynamic assessment of all the resources involved in a multi-product production environment. This paper presents a methodology for modelling multi-product manufacturing systems with dynamic material, energy and information flows with the aim to generate economic and environmental value stream maps (E²VSM). The proposed methodology is validated with an industrial case.     

Toxicity of sediment cores from Yangtze River estuary to zebrafish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Danio rerio</Emphasis>) embryos

Toxicity evaluation is an important segment in sediment quality monitoring in order to protect aquatic organisms and human health. The purpose of this study is to assess the toxicity of sediments from three sediment cores in Yangtze River Estuary, China, using the zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryo tests. Fertilized zebrafish eggs were exposed to both whole sediments and sediment organic extracts prepared from collected sediments, in order to provide a comprehensive and realistic insight into the bioavailable toxicity potential of the sediments. As end points, development parameters (mortality, hatching rate, and abnormality) in the developing embryos were recorded during the 96-h exposure. The results showed that some samples increased mortality, inhibited the hatching of embryos, and induced morphological abnormalities. The embryonic toxicities presented serrated changes and irregular distribution with depth, which may be related to hydrodynamic effect and unstable environmental input. However, lethal and sub-lethal effects were more significant at the sub-surface sediments (10～40 cm), which indicated that the pollution is more serious in recent decades.     

Levels and distribution of Dechloranes in sediments of Lake Taihu,China

The occurrence and spatial distribution of dechloranes including mirex, dechlorane plus (DP), dechlorane (Dec) 602, Dec 603, and Dec 604 in surficial sediments of Lake Taihu were investigated in this study. The concentrations of mirex and DP ranged from below detection limit (BDL) to 1.29 ng g^?1 dw and 0.051 to 2.10 ng g^?1 dw, respectively. Dec 602, Dec 603, and Dec 604 on the other hand, were BDL in any of the samples. The contamination levels of DP were higher than that of Mirex at 21 of all 22 sampling sites. Levels of mirex and DP in the lake sediments were correlated when an extremely high mirex value was removed. Both mirex and DP levels were correlated with the amount of organic matters in the sediment samples. Spatial distribution of mirex and DP suggested that these two chemicals in the lake had similar input sources except for one site. Comparison to previously reported flame retardants’ levels in the sediments shows that DP levels were similar with the levels of tetrabromobisphenol A, hexabromocyclododecane but lower than PBDEs and organophosphates levels in Lake Taihu. The higher levels in the north-east part of Lake Taihu adjacent to two major cities: Wuxi and Suzhou, indicated that city effluent might be a major source for DP contamination in the lake.     

Past,present, and future use of phosphorus in Chinese agriculture and its influence on phosphorus losses

Large inputs of phosphorus (P) in chemical fertilizers and feed supplements since 1978 have improved soil P status in arable land in China, but have also created challenges by increasing P concentrations in manure and exacerbating water quality degradation. Arable land in China can be divided into five management zones based on soil P chemistry, with 15–92 % of arable land having lower P status than the agronomic optimum and 0.3–7.2 % having severe risks of P leaching losses. A scenario analysis of soil P budget and agronomic P demand during 2011–2030 highlighted the great pressure China faces in sustainable P management and the need for drastic changes in current practices. This includes new policies to reduce P supplementation of feed and improved P use efficiency by livestock and programs to expand the adoption of appropriate fertilization, soil conservation, and drainage management practices to minimize P losses.