Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains

Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.     

Improving the Chest Protection of Elderly Occupants in Frontal Crashes Using SMART Load Limiters

Objective: To determine whether varying the seat belt load limiter (SBL) according to crash and occupant characteristics could have real-world injury reduction benefits in frontal impacts and, if so, to quantify those benefits.

Methods: Real-world UK accident data were used to identify the target population of vehicle occupants and frontal crash scenarios where improved chest protection could be most beneficial. Generic baseline driver and front passenger numerical models using a 50th percentile dummy were developed with MADYMO software. Simulations were performed where the load limiter threshold was varied in selected frontal impact scenarios. For each SBL setting, restraint performance, dummy kinematics, and injury outcome were studied in 5 different frontal impact types. Thoracic injury predictions were converted into injury probability values using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ age-dependent thoracic risk curves developed and validated based on a methodology proposed by Laituri et al. (2005). Real-world benefit was quantified using the predicted AIS 2+ risk and assuming that an appropriate adaptive system was fitted to all the cars in a real-world sample of recent frontal crashes involving European passenger cars.

Results: From the accident data sample the chest was the most frequently injured body region at an AIS 2+ level in frontal impacts (7% of front seat occupants). The proportion of older vehicle front seat occupants (>64 years) with AIS 2+ injury was also greater than the proportion of younger occupants. Additionally, older occupants were more likely to sustain seat belt–induced serious chest injury in low- and moderate-speed frontal crashes. In both front seating positions, the low SBL provided the best chest injury protection, without increasing the risk to other body regions. In severe impacts, the low SBL allowed the driver to move dangerously close to the steering wheel. Compared to the driver side, greater ride-down space on the passenger side gave a higher potential for using the low SBLs. When applying the AIS 2+ risk reduction findings to the weighted accident data sample, the risk of sustaining an AIS 2+ seat belt injury changed to 0.9, 4.9, and 8.1% for young, mid, and older occupants, respectively, from their actual injury risk of 1.3, 7.6, and 13.1%.

Conclusions: These results suggest the potential for improving the safety of older occupants with the development of smarter restraint systems. This is an important finding because the number of older users is expected to increase rapidly over the next 20 years. The greatest benefits were seen at lower crash severities. This is also important because most real-world crashes occur at lower speeds.     

Is there a link between motor vehicle collisions and being a cigarette smoker in Canada? Analysis of survey data from Ontario from 2002 to 2014

Objective: Although most research on drugs and driving has focused on the use of alcohol and cannabis, research that has been conducted on cigarette smoking and collisions has found that smokers have an increased collision involvement. Studies dating from 1967 through 2013 have shown a crude relative risk of about 1.5 among smokers compared to nonsmokers. In Canada, the association between smoking and collisions has not been recently investigated. Studies that have examined the association between smoking and collisions often did not control for all confounding factors, such as alcohol use and driving exposure, which have been associated with increased collision rates. Additionally, a number of these studies were examined in countries and at times when prevalence of smoking was much higher than is currently the case in Canada. The purpose of this research is to examine the association between self-reported current smoking and past-year collision involvement, controlling for confounding factors, in a large representative sample of adult drivers in Ontario, Canada, from 2002 and 2014.

Method: Data are based on the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH) Monitor, an ongoing, rolling telephone survey of Ontario adults that provides epidemiological surveillance of indicators related to alcohol, tobacco, and other drug use, as well as physical and mental health. The survey uses random-digit-dialing methods via Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview, with response rates over 50%.

Results: Prevalence of self-reported collision involvement within the past year for 2002–2014 was 8.6% among those who currently smoke compared to 6.5% of nonsmokers. Logistic regression analysis, controlling for the potential confounding effects of sociodemographics, driving exposure measures, drinking frequency, and hazardous alcohol use, found that the overall odds for collision involvement in the preceding year among current smokers for 2002–2014 was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06–1.53) times that of nonsmokers.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that despite a substantial reduction in overall prevalence of smoking in Canada, smokers still have a significantly increased odds of collision involvement, even when controlling for alcohol and exposure. Additionally, the results are consistent with the increased odds/risks of motor vehicle collisions found in other countries.     

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Regional Environmental Change - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A...     

Sonolytic reactions of phenanthrene in organic extraction solutions

Ultrasonic extraction is a common method used to extract semi-volatile and nonvolatile organic compounds such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from solid matrices. However, ultrasonic energy has been suspected to lead to undesired reactions of the solute and thus affect qualitative and quantitative results. In this paper, sonolytic reactions of phenanthrene in common organic extraction solutions were examined using a 20 kHz ultrasonic probe under conditions commonly used for ultrasonic extraction. Extraction parameters including phenanthrene concentration, solvent type, pulse length, and sonication time were investigated. Hexane:acetone (1:1 V/V) resulted in less phenanthrene degradation than dichloromethane (DCM):acetone (1:1 V/V). Initial solute concentration, length of sonication time, and solvent type affected the degradation of phenanthrene. Reaction byproducts including methylphenanthrene and methylnaphthalene detected after sonication indicate that phenanthrene reacts by both direct pyrolysis and reaction with methyl or ethyl radicals formed from solvent pyrolysis.     

Part 1: The role of waste data in building knowledge: The South African waste information system

An empirical study was undertaken with 31 organisations submitting data to the South African Waste Information System (SAWIS) in order to explore the relationship between data and resultant waste knowledge generated through a process of learning. The results show that of the three constructs of knowledge (experience, data/information, and theory), experience has the greatest influence on building waste knowledge, nearly twice that of data/information and three times that of theory. Together the three constructs account for 54.1% of the variance in knowledge. Respondents from municipalities and private waste organisations reflect two distinct sub-groups in the data set. While the theoretical model remains the same for the two sub-groups, the way in which knowledge is constructed, and the variance in knowledge explained by the model, differs for the two. A mixed methods research design, combining quantitative statistical analysis and rich qualitative data, contributes to a comprehensive interpretation of the role of waste data in building knowledge in South Africa. While waste data has a minor influence on building knowledge, respondents acknowledge that waste data does have a positive impact on the way their organisations manage waste. However, it is not the data, but rather the resultant waste knowledge and raised level of awareness that causes the operational response. Experience is obtained predominantly through learning from others. Respondents in municipalities, emphasised learning from consultants, landfill site contractors, and colleagues in city-twinning programmes, while respondents in private waste companies, emphasised learning from experienced, senior colleagues.     

加拿大伙伴关系的本领:工业界和政府如何为经济增长和更清洁的环境而共同努力

志愿非法规性举措(VNRI)在加拿大的使用,加之审慎混用各种手段,包括法规框架与经济手段,已经带来公司文化和行为的显著变化.随着各家公司和代表其利益的协会鼓励环境领导,负责任企业家便成为一种现实.详细考察了两个计划:加速削减/消除毒物(ARET)和全国包装议定书(NaPP).虽然这两个计划在其目的、目标和对象上有显著差异,而且它们所解决的环境问题也不同,但两者都成功地加以实施,达到了以低于法规所设想的费用达到最高环境质量水平之目的,并产生了更大的和未预见到的效益.     

推进全球绿色供应链建设——负责任采购计划（RSI）的探索

绿色供应链的必然性和重要性随着环境污染、能源短缺、资源枯竭等问题日益凸显,全球碳排放量惊人地以数量级增长,加之＂毒玩具＂、＂毒牛奶＂等事件爆发,人们意识到商家对其产品供应链的管理水平会影响消费者的安全和健康;从＂电子垃圾倾倒＂、＂尘肺病＂等事件,人们渐渐明白：各种生产、生活消费品,从其诞生到消亡,途经的每个环节,都影响着居民健康和生态环境。     

Removal of mercury from sediment by ultrasound combined with biomass (transgenic Chlamydomonas reinhardtii)

As one of the most pervasive environmental problems, Hg pollution in sediment is particularly difficult to remediate because it cannot be decomposed. The application of ultrasound combined with biomass (transgenic Chlamydomonas reinhardtii (C. reinhardtii), a green alga) for the removal of Hg from model and contaminated sediments (Al₂O₃, α-HgS, and PACS-2 marine sediment) was investigated in this study. Ultrasound was found to enhance Hg release from Al₂O₃, α-HgS, and PACS-2 marine sediment into the aqueous phase compared to mechanical shaking. A transgenic C. reinhardtii (2AMT-2) expressing a plasmamembrane-anchored metallothionein polymer effectively recovered Hg(II) released into the aqueous phase by sonication over a broad pH range from 2.0 to 9.0. The results showed that this combined technique of ultrasound and alga biomass (2AMT-2) engineered for enhanced metal recovery was effective to remove Hg from solids and sediments, especially from Al₂O₃ and α-HgS with no natural organic matter. The results of this study are discussed with respect to the development of in situ remediation techniques for Hg-contaminated sediments.     

Note: steps taken to optimise probe specificity and signal intensity prior to field validation of the MIDTAL (Microarray for the Detection of Toxic Algae)

A microarray for the detection of toxic algal species was developed in the European Union 7th Framework project MIDTAL. We initially tested all available fluorescence in situ hybridisation probes for toxic algae, which are normally designed to a length of 18 nt, and found that in most cases the signal was rather weak or all probes designed from the second half of the molecule were inaccessible in a microarray format because of secondary structure of the ribosomal RNA molecule We modified the length of the probes, the fragmentation of the rRNA, the stringency of the washing buffers and the length of the spacer molecules linking the probes to the glass surface of the microarray. Because of the secondary structure of the rRNA molecule, regions of the molecule can be difficult to access by the probes. Each of these modifications has improved probe accessibility and probe specificity to reduce false positives.