Design for resilience in infrastructure distribution networks

The recognition that resilience is a critical aspect of infrastructure security has caused the national and homeland security communities to ask “How does one ensure infrastructure resilience?” Previous network resilience analysis methods have generally focused on either pre-disruption prevention investments or post-disruption recovery strategies. This paper expands on those methods by introducing a stochastic optimization model for designing network infrastructure resilience that simultaneously considers pre- and post-disruption activities. The model seeks investment–recovery combinations that minimize the overall cost to a distribution network across a set of disruption scenarios. A set of numerical experiments illustrates how changes to disruption scenarios probabilities affect the optimal resilient design investments.     

The Arkansas Valley “Super Ditch”— An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts1

McMahon, Tyler G. and Mark Griffin Smith, 2012. The Arkansas Valley “Super Ditch”— An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 00(0):000‐000. 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12005 Abstract: In Colorado’s Arkansas River basin, urban growth and harsh farming conditions have resulted in water transfers from agricultural to urban uses. Several studies have shown that these transfers have significant secondary economic impacts associated with the removal of irrigated land from production. In response, new methods of sharing water are being developed to allow water transfers that benefit both farm and urban economies, compared with previous permanent transfers that negatively impacted surrounding farm communities. One such project currently under development is the Arkansas Valley “Super Ditch,” which is a rotational crop fallowing plan based on long‐term water leasing designed to provide an annual supply of 25,000 acre‐feet of water (31.6 Mm³). This article analyzes the net benefits of implementing the “Super Ditch” for both the farmers and the surrounding community.     

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Future climate and land‐use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land‐use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.     

Public Participation and Local Environmental Planning: The collective action problem and the potential of social capital

Expanding the opportunities for public participation in environmental planning is not always the best option. Starting from an institutional public choice analysis of public participation in terms of the collective action problem, this paper emphasises the roots of participatory activities in the incentive structures facing potential participants. It then goes on to consider the strategies that may be adopted for encouraging greater public involvement and looks particularly to the social capital literature for suggestions of how institutional redesign may alter these incentive structures. The paper concludes by distinguishing three different modes of environmental planning, in terms of the rationale for participation, the severity of the collective action problem and the associated participatory strategy that can be adopted.     

Importance of health assessments for conservation in noncaptive wildlife

Wildlife health assessments help identify populations at risk of starvation, disease, and decline from anthropogenic impacts on natural habitats. We conducted an overview of available health assessment studies in noncaptive vertebrates and devised a framework to strategically integrate health assessments in population monitoring. Using a systematic approach, we performed a thorough assessment of studies examining multiple health parameters of noncaptive vertebrate species from 1982 to 2020 (n = 261 studies). We quantified trends in study design and diagnostic methods across taxa with generalized linear models, bibliometric analyses, and visual representations of study location versus biodiversity hotspots. Only 35% of studies involved international or cross-border collaboration. Countries with both high and threatened biodiversity were greatly underrepresented. Species that were not listed as threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List represented 49% of assessed species, a trend likely associated with the regional focus of most studies. We strongly suggest following wildlife health assessment protocols when planning a study and using statistically adequate sample sizes for studies establishing reference ranges. Across all taxa blood analysis (89%), body composition assessments (81%), physical examination (72%), and fecal analyses (24% of studies) were the most common methods. A conceptual framework to improve design and standardize wildlife health assessments includes guidelines on the experimental design, data acquisition and analysis, and species conservation planning and management implications. Integrating a physiological and ecological understanding of species resilience toward threatening processes will enable informed decision making regarding the conservation of threatened species.     

Linking direct and indirect data on dispersal: isolation by slope in a headwater stream salamander

There is growing recognition of the need to incorporate information on movement behavior in landscape-scale studies of dispersal. One way to do this is by using indirect indices of dispersal (e.g., genetic differentiation) to test predictions derived from direct data on movement behavior. Mark-recapture studies documented upstream-biased movement in the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus (Plethodontidae). Based on this information, we hypothesized that gene flow in G. porphyriticus is affected by the slope of the stream. Specifically, because the energy required for upstream dispersal is positively related to slope, we predicted gene flow to be negatively related to change in elevation between sampling sites. Using amplified DNA fragment length polymorphisms among tissue samples from paired sites in nine streams in the Hubbard Brook Watershed, New Hampshire, USA, we found that genetic distances between downstream and upstream sites were positively related to change in elevation over standardized 1-km distances. This pattern of isolation by slope elucidates controls on population connectivity in stream networks and underscores the potential for specific behaviors to affect the genetic structure of species at the landscape scale. More broadly, our results show the value of combining direct data on movement behavior and indirect indices to assess patterns and consequences of dispersal in spatially complex ecosystems.     

Herbivore vs. nutrient control of marine primary producers: context-dependent effects

Pervasive overharvesting of consumers and anthropogenic nutrient loading are changing the strengths of top-down and bottom-up forces in ecosystems worldwide. Thus, identifying the relative and synergistic roles of these forces and how they differ across habitats, ecosystems, or primary-producer types is increasingly important for understanding how communities are structured. We used factorial meta-analysis of 54 field experiments that orthogonally manipulated herbivore pressure and nutrient loading to quantify consumer and nutrient effects on primary producers in benthic marine habitats. Across all experiments and producer types, herbivory and nutrient enrichment both significantly affected primary-producer abundance. They also interacted to create greater nutrient enrichment effects in the absence of herbivores, suggesting that loss of herbivores produces more dramatic effects of nutrient loading. Herbivores consistently had stronger effects than did nutrient enrichment for both tropical macroalgae and seagrasses. The strong effects of herbivory but limited effects of nutrient enrichment on tropical macroalgae suggest that suppression of herbivore populations has played a larger role than eutrophication in driving the phase shift from coral- to macroalgal-dominated reefs in many areas, especially the Caribbean. For temperate macroalgae and benthic microalgae, the effects of top-down and bottom-up forces varied as a function of the inherent productivity of the ecosystem. For these algal groups, nutrient enrichment appeared to have stronger effects in high- vs. low-productivity systems, while herbivores exerted a stronger top-down effect in low-productivity systems. Effects of herbivores vs. nutrients also varied among algal functional groups (crustose algae, upright macroalgae, and filamentous algae), within a functional group between temperate and tropical systems, and according to the metric used to measure producer abundance. These analyses suggest that human alteration of food webs and nutrient availability have significant effects on primary producers but that the effects vary among latitudes and primary producers, and with the inherent productivity of ecosystems.     

Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.     

Serum polychlorinated biphenyl and organochlorine insecticide concentrations in a Faroese birth cohort

A prospective birth cohort of 1022 participants was established in the Faroe Islands over a 21-month period during 1986-1987. We collected questionnaire data on potential persistent organic pollutant (POP) concentration predictors, such as duration of breastfeeding and blubber consumption. To assess the participants' exposure from in utero to 14 years of age to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the insecticide p,p'-DDT and its primary degradate p,p'-DDE, we measured 37 PCB congeners and pesticides in 316 umbilical cord samples taken from participants at birth, in 124 serum samples collected from participants at approximately 7 years of age, and in 795 serum samples collected from participants at 14 years of age. Measurements of higher chlorination PCB congeners made on individuals' serum samples collected at 7 years and 14 years were highly correlated (typically r > 0.5, p > 0.01), although their concentrations at 7 years were generally two to three times higher than at 14 years. Similarly, umbilical cord PCB concentrations were correlated with PCB concentrations in both 7- and 14-year serum samples. Sex-specific differences in higher chlorination PCB and p,p'-DDE concentrations were found at 14 years but not at 7 years, although a sex interaction with blubber consumption and nursing duration was observed at both ages. Both duration of breastfeeding and consumption of blubber were significant predictors of serum summationPCB concentrations at 7 and 14 years. Multivariate analyses showed that breastfeeding duration was the primary contributor to serum summationPCB concentrations at 7 years, and blubber consumption was the primary contributor at 14 years. These data suggest that infant exposures from breastfeeding were sufficiently large so that continued exposures to PCBs, p,p'-DDT, and p,p'-DDE through the diet have not fully diluted their contribution to the summationPCB and p,p'-DDE body burden of the children.     

Evaluating spectroscopic and chromatographic techniques to resolve dissolved organic matter via end member mixing analysis

Real-time or near real-time in-situ monitoring of dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition in natural waters and engineered treatment systems provides critical information to water quality scientists and engineers, particularly when the monitoring techniques can provide some information about the chemical nature of DOM. The efficacy of various indices derived from rapid, low-cost spectroscopic and chromatographic techniques to discriminate DOM composition was tested for samples prepared from well-defined mixtures of purified Aldrich humic acid (PAHA) and Suwannee River fulvic acid (SRFA). Sensitivities of the discrimination indices were examined by comparing (1) the differences between measured values and those predicted based from mass balance and the end member characteristics, and (2) the linear correlations between index values and mass ratios of the DOM mixtures. Size exclusion chromatography (SEC) results revealed that the weight-average molecular weight (MW(w)) may be a useful approach for tracking DOM mixing processes, although the number-average molecular weight (MW(n)) may be better for distinguishing different DOM compositions. Specific ultraviolet absorbance measured at 254 nm (SUVA(254)) performed better as a discrimination index than did two previously recommended absorbance ratios, both in terms of making better predictions of intermediate compositions and in exhibiting a more linear correlation with PAHA mass ratio. Several well-defined peaks in the derivative absorption spectra (301 and 314 nm for the first derivative, 217 nm for the third derivative, and 211 and 224 nm for the fourth derivative) also were found to be promising potential DOM discrimination indices. Finally, a fluorescence ratio based on humic- versus fulvic-like fluorescence proved to be a superior DOM discrimination index for the two DOM end members studied here. In general, this study illustrates the evaluation process that should be followed to develop rapid, low-cost discrimination indices to monitor DOM compositions based on end member mixing analyses.