Making Consistent IUCN Classifications under Uncertainty

Abstract: The World Conservation Union (IUCN) defined a set of categories for conservation status supported by decision rules based on thresholds of parameters such as distributional range, population size, population history, and risk of extinction. These rules have received international acceptance and have become one of the most important decision tools in conservation biology because of their wide applicability, objectivity, and simplicity of use. The input data for these rules are often estimated with considerable uncertainty due to measurement error, natural variation, and vagueness in definitions of parameters used in the rules. Currently, no specific guidelines exist for dealing with uncertainty. Interpretation of uncertain data by different assessors may lead to inconsistent classifications because attitudes toward uncertainty and risk may have an important influence on the classification of threatened species. We propose a method of dealing with uncertainty that can be applied to the current IUCN criteria without altering the rules, thresholds, or intent of these criteria. Our method propagates the uncertainty in the input parameters and assigns the evaluated species either to a single category (as the current criteria do) or to a range of plausible categories, depending on the nature and extent of uncertainties.     

Application of Ecological Classification and Predictive Vegetation Modeling to Broad-Level Assessments of Ecosystem Health

The Little Missouri National Grasslands (LMNG) of western North Dakota support the largest permitted cattle grazing use within all lands administered by the USDA, Forest Service, as well as critical habitat for many wildlife species. This fact, coupled with the need to revise current planning direction for range allotments of the LMNG, necessitated that a broad-level characterization of ecosystem integrity and resource conditions be conducted across all lands within the study area (approximately 800,000 hectares) in a rapid and cost-effective manner. The approach taken in this study was based on ecological classifications, which effectively utilized existing field plot data collected for a variety of previous inventory objectives, and their continuous spatial projection across the LMNG by maps of both existing and potential vegetation. These two map themes represent current and reference conditions (existing vs. potential vegetation); their intersection allowed us to assign various ecological status ratings (i.e., ecosystem integrity and resource condition) based on the degree of departure between current and reference conditions. In this paper, we present a brief review of methodologies used in the development of ecological classifications, and also illustrate their application to assessments of rangeland health through selected maps of ecological status ratings for the LMNG.     

Satellite detection of land-use change and effects on regional forest aboveground biomass estimates

We used remote-sensing-driven models to detect land-cover change effects on forest aboveground biomass (AGB) density (Mg.ha(-1), dry weight) and total AGB (Tg) in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan USA, between the years 1992-2001, and conducted an evaluation of the approach. Inputs included remotely-sensed 1992 reflectance data and land-cover map (University of Maryland) from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and 2001 products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 1-km resolution for the region; and 30-m resolution land-cover maps from the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) for a subarea to conduct nine simulations to address our questions. Sensitivity analysis showed that (1) AVHRR data tended to underestimate AGB density by 11%, on average, compared to that estimated using MODIS data; (2) regional mean AGB density increased slightly from 124 (1992) to 126 Mg ha(-1) (2001) by 1.6%; (3) a substantial decrease in total forest AGB across the region was detected, from 2,507 (1992) to 1,961 Tg (2001), an annual rate of -2.4%; and (4) in the subarea, while NLCD-based estimates suggested a 26% decrease in total AGB from 1992 to 2001, AVHRR/MODIS-based estimates indicated a 36% increase. The major source of uncertainty in change detection of total forest AGB over large areas was due to area differences from using land-cover maps produced by different sources. Scaling up 30-m land-cover map to 1-km resolution caused a mean difference of 8% (in absolute value) in forest area estimates at the county-level ranging from 0 to 17% within a 95% confidence interval.     

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) investigations of Mn-oxide rich cathodic material from spent disposable alkaline batteries

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques were used to investigate the spent cathodic material of a single common brand of disposable alkaline batteries. Mn-oxide particles are anhedral and irregular in shape and compose an estimated 99-95% of the <10mum size fraction of sample material. Diameters of particles vary widely and typically are between 50nm and 3mum; however, most particles are approximately 200-400nm in diameter. Chemical composition varies for Mn-oxide particles with concentrations being SiO(2) (0.00-1.52wt%), TiO(2) (0.49-4.58wt%), MnO (65.85-92.06wt%), ZnO (1.00-7.53wt%), K(2)O (4.97-20.48wt%) and SO(3) (0.43-2.21wt%). Discrete prismatic zinc crystals occur and vary from a maximum of approximately 0.8mum longx0.15mum wide, to 100nm longx20nm wide. Titanium metal was also observed in samples and composes approximately 0.25-1.0% of the <10mum size fraction of sample material. Results of this study suggest that battery components may be recycled in some special applications. Examples are low energy-low material requirement products such as paint pigments and Zn nanoparticles. This investigation provides detailed constraints on the nature of spent cathodic materials to improve existing recycling methods and develop new technologies.     

Variations in pesticide leaching related to land use, pesticide properties, and unsaturated zone thickness

Pesticide leaching through variably thick soils beneath agricultural fields in Morgan Creek, Maryland was simulated for water years 1995 to 2004 using LEACHM (Leaching Estimation and Chemistry Model). Fifteen individual models were constructed to simulate five depths and three crop rotations with associated pesticide applications. Unsaturated zone thickness averaged 4.7 m but reached a maximum of 18.7 m. Average annual recharge to ground water decreased from 15.9 to 11.1 cm as the unsaturated zone increased in thickness from 1 to 10 m. These point estimates of recharge are at the lower end of previously published values, which used methods that integrate over larger areas capturing focused recharge in the numerous detention ponds in the watershed. The total amount of applied and leached masses for five parent pesticide compounds and seven metabolites were estimated for the 32-km2 Morgan Creek watershed by associating each hectare to the closest one-dimensional model analog of model depth and crop rotation scenario as determined from land-use surveys. LEACHM parameters were set such that branched, serial, first-order decay of pesticides and metabolites was realistically simulated. Leaching is predicted to be greatest for shallow soils and for persistent compounds with low sorptivity. Based on simulation results, percent parent compounds leached within the watershed can be described by a regression model of the form e(-depth) (a ln t1/2-b ln K OC) where t1/2 is the degradation half-life in aerobic soils, K OC is the organic carbon normalized sorption coefficient, and a and b are fitted coefficients (R2 = 0.86, p value = 7 x 10(-9)).     

Pesticide fate and transport throughout unsaturated zones in five agricultural settings, USA

Pesticide transport through the unsaturated zone is a function of chemical and soil characteristics, application, and water recharge rate. The fate and transport of 82 pesticides and degradates were investigated at five different agricultural sites. Atrazine and metolachlor, as well as several of the degradates of atrazine, metolachlor, acetochlor, and alachlor, were frequently detected in soil water during the 2004 growing season, and degradates were generally more abundant than parent compounds. Metolachlor and atrazine were applied at a Nebraska site the same year as sampling, and focused recharge coupled with the short time since application resulted in their movement in the unsaturated zone 9 m below the surface. At other sites where the herbicides were applied 1 to 2 yr before sampling, only degradates were found in soil water. Transformations of herbicides were evident with depth and during the 4-mo sampling time and reflected the faster degradation of metolachlor oxanilic acid and persistence of metolachor ethanesulfonic acid. The fraction of metolachlor ethanesulfonic acid relative to metolachlor and metolachlor oxanilic acid increased from 0.3 to >0.9 at a site in Maryland where the unsaturated zone was 5 m deep and from 0.3 to 0.5 at the shallowest depth. The flux of pesticide degradates from the deepest sites to the shallow ground water was greatest (3.0-4.9 micromol m(-2) yr(-1)) where upland recharge or focused flow moved the most water through the unsaturated zone. Flux estimates based on estimated recharge rates and measured concentrations were in agreement with fluxes estimated using an unsaturated-zone computer model (LEACHM).     

Investigating habitat value to inform contaminant remediation options: case study

Habitat valuation methods were implemented to support remedial decisions for aquatic and terrestrial contaminated sites at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. The habitat valuation was undertaken for six contaminated sites: Contractor's Spoil Area, K-901-N Disposal Area, K-770 Scrapyard, K-1007-P1 pond, K-901 pond, and the Mitchell Branch stream. Four of these sites are within the industrial use area of ETTP and two are in the Black Oak Ridge Conservation Easement. These sites represent terrestrial and aquatic habitat for vertebrates, terrestrial habitat for plants, and aquatic habitat for benthic invertebrates. Current and potential future, no-action (no remediation) scenarios were evaluated primarily using existing information. Valuation metrics and scoring criteria were developed in a companion paper, this volume. The habitat valuation consists of extensive narratives, as well as scores for aspects of site use value, site rarity, and use value added from spatial context. Metrics for habitat value were expressed with respect to different spatial scales, depending on data availability. There was significant variation in habitat value among the six sites, among measures for different taxa at a single site, between measures of use and rarity at a single site, and among measures for particular taxa at a single site with respect to different spatial scales. Most sites had aspects of low, medium, and high habitat value. Few high scores for current use value were given. These include: wetland plant communities at all aquatic sites, Lepomid sunfish and waterbirds at 1007-P1 pond, and Lepomid sunfish and amphibians at K-901 pond. Aquatic sites create a high-value ecological corridor for waterbirds, and the Contractor's Spoil Area and possibly the K-901-N Disposal Site have areas that are part of a strong terrestrial ecological corridor. The only example of recent observations of rare species at these sites is the gray bat observed at the K-1007-P1 pond. Some aspects of habitat value are expected to improve under no-action scenarios at a few of the sites. Methods are applicable to other contaminated sites where sufficient ecological data are available for the site and region.     

A sensitive and robust method for the determination of alkylphenol polyethoxylates and their carboxylic acids and their transformation in a trickling filter wastewater treatment plant

This paper presents a method for the determination of alkylphenols, alkylphenol polyethoxylates (APEO) and alkylphenol ethoxycarboxylates (APEC) in the aqueous and particulate phase of wastewater samples. Quantification was achieved by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The sensitivity of the method is demonstrated by low detection limits, in the dissolved phase 1.2-9.6ngl(-1) for alkylphenol, AP(1-3)EO and APEC and 0.1-4.1ngl(-1) for longer chain alkylphenol polyethoxylates. The method detection limit for particulate phase samples ranged from 6 to 60ngg(-1) for AP, AP(1-3)EO and APEC; with the longer chain APEO being from 0.5 to 20ngg(-1). Matrix effects were noted in complex matrix rich samples. There was a distinct change in the distribution of alkylphenol ethoxylates during biological treatment of the wastewater, with the major biotransformation products observed being carboxylated derivatives at concentrations of up to 1768ngl(-1). Shorter chain APEO were present in higher proportions in the suspended solids, due to their higher affinity to particulate matter compared to the long-chain oligomers.     

Assessment of the functionality of a pilot-scale reactor and its potential for electrochemical degradation of calmagite, a sulfonated azo-dye

Electrochemical degradation (ECD) is a promising technology for in situ remediation of diversely contaminated environmental matrices by application of a low level electric potential gradient. This investigation, prompted by successful bench-scale ECD of trichloroethylene, involved development, parametric characterization and evaluation of a pilot-scale electrochemical reactor for degradation of calmagite, a sulfonated azo-dye used as a model contaminant. The reactor has two chambers filled with granulated graphite for electrodes. The system has electrical potential, current, conductivity, pH, temperature, water-level and flow sensors for automated monitoring. The reactor supports outdoor and fail-safe venting, argon purging, temperature regulation and auto-shutdown for safety. Treatment involves recirculating the contaminated solution through the electrode beds at small flow velocities mimicking low fluid-flux in groundwater and submarine sediments. The first phase of the investigation involved testing of the reactor components, its parametric probes and the automated data acquisition system for performance as designed. The results showed hydraulic stability, consistent pH behavior, marginal temperature rise (<5 degrees C) and overall safe and predictable performance under diverse conditions. Near complete removal of calmagite was seen at 3-10V of applied voltage in 8-10h. The effects of voltage and strength of electrolyte on degradation kinetics have been presented. Further, it was observed from the absorption spectra that as calmagite degrades over time, new peaks appear. These peaks were associated with degradation products identified using electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. A reaction mechanism for ECD of calmagite has also been proposed.