FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

A LARGE ELECTRONIC WEIGHING LYSIMETER SYSTEM: DESIGN AND INSTALLATION1

ABSTRACT: To measure crop evapotranspiration, a large double tank, electronic weighting lysimeter system was designed and installed at the Shahid Bahonar University farm, Kerman, Iran. The system was installed in a 50 m² underground building. It includes two tanks of 3.00 m in diameter and 1.75 m deep. The weighing mechanism for each tank is a set of three compression strain gage load cells, which are fixed on 1.20 m height column above the floor. According to the specification of the load cells, the maximum possible weighing error may be about 0.01 percent of total mass, which is equivalent to 0.28 mm of water, but the measured error was equal to 1 kg mass, which is equivalent to 0.14 mm of water. The load cell data from each tank and the on‐site environmental data (temperature, humidity, and wind velocity and direction) are automatically recorded and saved in a personal computer hard disk for further use and analysis.     

Natural gas engine driven heat pump system – a case study of an office building

ABSTRACT

An eQUEST model was developed to conduct a simulation study of a natural gas engine-driven heat pump (GEHP) for an office building in Woodstock, Ontario, Canada. Prior to the installation of the GEHP, the heating and cooling demands of the office building were provided by rooftop units (RTUs), comprising of natural gas heater and electric air conditioner. Energy consumption for both GEHP and RTUs were monitored for operation in alternating months. These recorded energy consumptions along with weather data were used in the regression analysis. The developed eQUEST models were validated and calibrated with the regression analysis results with respect to the ASHRAE Guideline 14–2014. The eventual models were then applied to investigate the potential annual energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and energy cost savings achieved by using the GEHP in Woodstock, and other cities in Canada, particularly in Ontario.     

Emotional intelligence and individual performance: evidence of direct and moderated effects

We examined the direct and moderated effects of an ability‐based measure of emotional intelligence (MSCEIT© V2.0) on individual performance in a sample of business undergraduates. Controlling for general mental ability and personality, emotional intelligence explained unique incremental variance in performance ratings on only one of two measures of interpersonal effectiveness (public speaking effectiveness). However, the interaction of emotional intelligence with conscientiousness explained unique incremental variance both in public speaking and group behavior effectiveness, as well as academic performance (cumulative GPA). We conclude that the effects of emotional intelligence on performance are more indirect than direct in nature. Individuals must not only have emotional intelligence, but also must be motivated to use it. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological Connectivity Between Headwater Streams and Downstream Waters: How Science Can Inform Policy1

Abstract: In January 2001, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers exceeded its statutory authority by asserting Clean Water Act (CWA) jurisdiction over non‐navigable, isolated, intrastate waters based solely on their use by migratory birds. The Supreme Court’s majority opinion addressed broader issues of CWA jurisdiction by implying that the CWA intended some “connection” to navigability and that isolated waters need a “significant nexus” to navigable waters to be jurisdictional. Subsequent to this decision (SWANCC), there have been many lawsuits challenging CWA jurisdiction, many of which are focused on headwater, intermittent, and ephemeral streams. To inform the legal and policy debate surrounding this issue, we present information on the geographic distribution of headwater streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams throughout the U.S., summarize major findings from the scientific literature in considering hydrological connectivity between headwater streams and downstream waters, and relate the scientific information presented to policy issues surrounding the scope of waters protected under the CWA. Headwater streams comprise approximately 53% (2,900,000 km) of the total stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska, and intermittent and ephemeral streams comprise approximately 59% (3,200,000 km) of the total stream length and approximately 50% (1,460,000 km) of the headwater stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska. Hillslopes, headwater streams, and downstream waters are best described as individual elements of integrated hydrological systems. Hydrological connectivity allows for the exchange of mass, momentum, energy, and organisms longitudinally, laterally, vertically, and temporally between headwater streams and downstream waters. Via hydrological connectivity, headwater, intermittent and ephemeral streams cumulatively contribute to the functional integrity of downstream waters; hydrologically and ecologically, they are a part of the tributary system. As this debate continues, scientific input from multiple fields will be important for policymaking at the federal, state, and local levels and to inform water resource management regardless of the level at which those decisions are being made. Strengthening the interface between science, policy, and public participation is critical if we are going to achieve effective water resource management.     

Characterisation of mineralogical forms of barium and trace heavy metal impurities in commercial barytes by EPMA, XRD and ICP-MS

This study was carried out to characterise the mineralogical forms of barium and the trace heavy metal impurities in commercial barytes of different origins using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Qualitative EPMA results show the presence of typically eight different minerals in commercial barytes including barite (BaSO4), barium feldspar, galena (PbS), pyrite (FeS2), sphalerite (ZnS), quartz (SiO2), and silicates, etc. Quantitative EPMA confirms that the barite crystals in the barytes contain some strontium and a little calcium, whereas trace heavy metals occur in the associated minerals. Analysis of aqua regia extracts of barytes samples by ICP-MS has shown the presence of a large number of elements in the associated minerals. Arsenic, copper and zinc concentrations correlate closely in all 10 samples. The findings suggest that barytes is not, as traditionally thought, an inert mineral, but is a potentially toxic substance due to its associated heavy metal impurities, which can be determined by an aqua regia digest without the need for complete dissolution of the barite itself. X-ray powder diffraction was not informative as the complex barite pattern masks the very weak lines from the small amounts of associated minerals.     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.     

Effect of Macroalgal Expansion and Marine Protected Areas on Coral Recovery Following a Climatic Disturbance

Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life‐form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. Efecto de la Expansión de Macroalgas y Áreas Marinas Protegidas sobre la Recuperación de Coral Después de una Perturbación Climática     

Effect of ozone injection on the long-term performance and microbial community structure of a VOCs biofilter

For biofilters treating waste gases containing volatile organic compounds(VOCs), biomass accumulation is a common problem which will induce bed clogging and significant decrease in VOCs removal efficiency during long-term operation. In this study, ozone injection was developed as a biomass control strategy, and its effects on the biofilter performance and the microbial community structure were investigated in long-term operation. Two biofilters,identified as BF1 and BF2, were operated continuously for 160 days treating gaseous toluene under the same conditions, except that 200 mg/m3 ozone was continuously injected into BF1 during days 45–160. During the operation period, ozone injection did not change the toluene removal efficiency, while the pressure drop of BF1 with ozone injection was significantly lowered compared with BF2. The wet biomass accumulation rate of BF1 was 11 g/m~3/hr, which was only46% of that in BF2. According to the carbon balance result, ozone injection also increased the toluene mineralization rate from 83% to 91%, which could be an important reason for the low biomass accumulation. The PMA-q PCR result indicated that ozone injection increased the microbial viability of the biofilm. The high-throughput sequencing result also revealed that the dominant phyla and genera were not changed significantly by ozone injection, but some ozonetolerant genera such as Rhodanobacter, Dokdonella and Rhodococcus were enhanced by ozone exposure. All the results verified that ozone injection is capable of sustaining the long-term performance of biofilters by lowering the biomass accumulation, increasing the microbial viability and changing the microbial community structure.